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Does Vegas View Our First Round Pick Pretty Favorably?

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Defensive rookie of the year odds are out, link below.

The top two favorites are Dallas Turner at +400, and Latu is +500.
Chop is +1300.

On the one hand, Chop is viewed 3x less favorably than those other two players. That is a big difference.

However, the Dolphins were in no position to draft either Turner or Latu.

Verse is +1100, but that is not materially different from Chop at +1300. The CB the Eagles picked just after us is also +1100. Terrion Arnold, Lions CB, also not much different than Chop at +1200. Byron Murphy, who was very highly thought of and the first DT off the board, is also +1300. Murphy probably falls a bit because of the position he plays. The CBs are probably thought of give or take equally with the edge players by Vegas.

GM me would probably have taken one of the two CBs. But Vegas is telling you Chop is more or less the same prospect as Murphy or the first two CBs off the board. So at a minimum it seems Vegas is telling you the Dolphins were not nuts to take Chop where they did, and Vegas views the pick pretty favorably. They have Chop with the same odds as some pretty good company.

Side note, it was really interesting a defensive player did not come off the board until pick 15. I doubt that was because there were 14 better offensive players. It really shows you how much of a priority the NFL puts on offense these days given the rules and the state of the game.

 
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I think Vegas is also projecting snaps/opportunity. While Chop will get plenty of run, when Vegas looks at Miami's Edges vs Minnesota's, Indianapolis's, and even Los Angeles's, they're going to project fewer snaps for Robinson.

I think Chop has a real shot.
 
I think Vegas is also projecting snaps/opportunity. While Chop will get plenty of run, when Vegas looks at Miami's Edges vs Minnesota's, Indianapolis's, and even Los Angeles's, they're going to project fewer snaps for Robinson.

I think Chop has a real shot.

Yep... a lot of this is opportunity... and understanding that some positions have a better chance of winning these awards.
 
But they also massage things to bring in more money, and adjust "accuracy" accordingly.
meanwhile at +1300, well that is 13-1 on chop. not a bad potential return if you believe in the kid.
would you rather put $100 on Chop at 13-1 for defensive rookie of the year OR over 9.5 wins, but that is at -120, which means you get less than even odds on the 9.5 because you need to put up $120 to win the $100?
This is so tough, because my brain tells me the Dolphins over is a better bet on an expected value basis, but my emotions tell me the Chop bet is more fun at the 13-1 odds.
as a general rule of thumb, I HATE these futures bets, because you are also betting on injury. it was like taking the over on the Pats, you were basically betting on Brady not getting hurt all year, which amazingly turned out to be the case and I think they hit the over nearly every year once Brady was established and after he returned from that one knee injury. that might have been the last time the Dolphins won the division, I think pennington was the QB that year and we went 11-5 and won the division in a tiebreaker or something like that. then lost the first playoff game badly. i forget if pennington got hurt
 
Chop is an enigma at this point.

Vegas doesn't know his impact anymore than we do at this point.

His athleticism makes double digit sacks a possibility and on the other hand, if this athleticism can't make up for his small staure he could struggle.
 
Chop is an enigma at this point.

Vegas doesn't know his impact anymore than we do at this point.

His athleticism makes double digit sacks a possibility and on the other hand, if this athleticism can't make up for his small staure he could struggle.
13-1 odds baby....let it rip!
 
But they also massage things to bring in more money, and adjust "accuracy" accordingly.
I don't think theyre perfect but they often stand to lose money if their numbers are too far off. Also, they're fairly obvious about what they're doing whereas sports media often has a mirky agenda and far less consequences for innaccuracy.
 
I wasn’t a fan of the Chop pick. I think the pick was forced because of the injuries to Phillips and Chubb.

Robinson will likely get a lot of plays early in the season because Phillips and Chubb probably won’t be ready to play until around mid season. Once they return to the lineup, the reps for Robinson will likely be greatly reduced
and that would obviously reduce his chances of being the defensive rookie of the year.

I don’t see Robinson having more than 3 or 4 sacks over the entire season and he will likely have less than 20 combined tackles for the season. I think the edge rushers selected before him are all likely to have better numbers than Robinson in 2024.
 
I don't think theyre perfect but they often stand to lose money if their numbers are too far off. Also, they're fairly obvious about what they're doing whereas sports media often has a mirky agenda and far less consequences for innaccuracy.
Amen on sports media.
 
I think Vegas is also projecting snaps/opportunity. While Chop will get plenty of run, when Vegas looks at Miami's Edges vs Minnesota's, Indianapolis's, and even Los Angeles's, they're going to project fewer snaps for Robinson.

I think Chop has a real shot.
Also, I don't think Chop is thought of as a finished product, but still with a very high ceiling, so he could be anywhere close to possibly a year away from reaching full potential or ready to explode this year.

Obviously you know more about this then me, but that is what I have read about him.
 
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