Dolphins vs. Patriots (-17) | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Dolphins vs. Patriots (-17)

DolfanISS said:
What's going to be frustrating is like every Pats game I watch there will be plays to be made against that defense but like every team that plays NE we will not be able to make them. the game will probably go something like this:

1. We receive put together a promising drive but stall.
2. Pats score easily.
3. We make a mistake, turnover.
4. Pats score.
5. We get 3 points.
6. Pats get a TD.
7. Dolphins make a big play called back by penalty, end up punting.
8. Pats score
9. Pats receive 2nd half kick and of course score.

Game is out of hand at 35-3. Burke adjusts to not have Kiko in coverage.

I really can't believe NE's defense is shutting teams down. I know they're coaching is great but they have David Harris's corpse and our castoff Trevor Reilly seeing snaps on defense. You never see these guys chasing RB's or TE's in coverage.
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This sounds so probable, you should buy a lottery ticket
 
These are two teams at opposite ends of the fundamentals spectrum. Miami lacks them, New England excels at them. New England is going to capitalize on the litany of Miami mistakes to come. This one is going to be ugly. Give New England 4 turnover by halftime and it’ll be 31-0 for sure.
 
We should be able to put points up on one of the worst pass defenses in the league. So hopefully no shutouts this week.
 
If this were college ball,we would be the cupcake the Pats scheduled before a real game.....Kind of like Homecoming for the Pats!!! Sad..but true.
 
Michael Scott said:
17.5 now and I'm tempted to take it.

Can't see us getting within three touchdowns. Probably 28-0 by the half.
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Most joints are at 16.5. 5Dimes and a couple of other spots are -17.5 but juice on the Dolphins, like -127 instead of -110 to take the +17.5.

Sometimes they do that early in the week on very high numbers. Those numbers tend to run more than lower numbers so a few big spots keep the number the same early in the week and merely move the juice before seeing where the spread settles everywhere.

Our power rating is the worst I've ever seen given a moderate record like 4-6. Basically unprecedented. I've talked to other bettors and they report the same thing. That awesome New England team of 2007 in midseason was earning massive favoritism roles on its own merit, even though the opponents weren't that bad. This Patriots team is rated at least 6-7 points worse than that one yet we're still getting 17. That's a reflection on the Dolphins, not the Patriots.

My cap in the NFL is giving -14 and that's Cream hosting Crap. The Dolphins still wouldn't be Crap in my categorization because I place highest emphasis on straight up record. That may burn me in an occasional example. Who cares? Outliers mean nothing compared to the peaceful satisfaction of not making unnecessary decisions. Far more often than not the straight up record is the single most underrated category in sports analysis and sports betting. I discovered that very early, in 1984 and 1985 while backtracking results.

I don't like giving big points in pro sports because the talent level is comparatively balanced. One team is going in one direction and one in another. That accounts for the high spread and perception of a blow out. It can happen but when they line up the big men are mostly the same caliber. Contrast to college where you can find overwhelming line of scrimmage mismatches with similar pointspreads to this one, yet all the favorite has to do is line up and run the ball all day. For example, check San Diego State the past three weeks. They are a basic power running team under Rocky Long. That team was unbeaten and ranked in midseason before losing in consecutive weeks to Boise State and Fresno State. I loved it. The next three weeks the Aztecs lined up against Hawaii, San Jose State and Nevada-Reno. Those are handoff games. San Diego State gained nearly 1200 yards combined on the ground and covered all three games. The spreads were -9, -23 and -16.
 
Here's my gambling line....I BET the Dolphins suck the rest of the year...and probably next year...
 
Pats will put up a 50 burger on the Phins. Gase gets owned by Belicheat. Gase will whine how it wasnt his horrible play calling being responsible for the blowout.

Pats win 55-8.
 
Daytona Fin said:
We should be able to put points up on one of the worst pass defenses in the league. So hopefully no shutouts this week.
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The last four weeks NE hasn't allowed more than 235 yards passing in a game. Their defense has improved immensely since the early stages of the season.
 
I predict we get completely blown out. Pats will have mostly backups playing in the second half and after the game, Gase will have another pointless press conference about how he sees improvement blah blah blah.
 
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