Draft Coverage Market Research (please vote)

[saves]

Someone, somwhere, is laughing. Wait, I think that might be me...

Why exactly are you laughing? Has any money been made?

 

[DeDolfan]

I was adding to your point about how unless your in the inner circle of Sabans braintrust, it is all speculation, I didn't think my post was that veiled?

Just making certain of what you were saying.

 

[DeDolfan]

Well then I invite you to put your money where you mouth is and create more informative, detailed, and accurate draft predictions.

Personally I find the idea absurd that the draft is a guessing game. It reminds me of the people that say the stock market is a guessing game just because they're too lazy to do informative research.

I also find it absurd that some folks think that fans that do not spend time researching this topic can be consistently as accurate as those that do. That in turn reminds me of the year 2000 day traders that went ahead piling up uninformed day trades to stockpile money because by golly ya can't go wrong with tech! Until 2001...when they lost their life savings.

What makes a "professional" anyway? Here I thought what makes a professional is a guy who spends a lot of time plying away at his trade and makes money off it. Guess what, all three of us spend more manhours in a single day plying away at this trade than most "informed" fans do in a week or more.

If you don't think draft analysis is worth your money that is a personal choice. But don't try and pretend that 67% of the people voting are not willing to give up their money because they can predict and analyze the draft just as easily as we can. Is that arrogance? To me, no. No more arrogant than a fireman scoffing at the idea that a group of "informed" citizens could put out fires just as well as they could. No more arrogant than a trained soldier listening to someone say that a group of paintball players could whip their butt on the battlefield.

Someone, somwhere, is laughing. Wait, I think that might be me...

are we to understand that you guys are professional draft analysts then?

 

[Crowder52]

Well then I invite you to put your money where you mouth is and create more informative, detailed, and accurate draft predictions.

Personally I find the idea absurd that the draft is a guessing game. It reminds me of the people that say the stock market is a guessing game just because they're too lazy to do informative research.

I also find it absurd that some folks think that fans that do not spend time researching this topic can be consistently as accurate as those that do. That in turn reminds me of the year 2000 day traders that went ahead piling up uninformed day trades to stockpile money because by golly ya can't go wrong with tech! Until 2001...when they lost their life savings.

What makes a "professional" anyway? Here I thought what makes a professional is a guy who spends a lot of time plying away at his trade and makes money off it. Guess what, all three of us spend more manhours in a single day plying away at this trade than most "informed" fans do in a week or more.

If you don't think draft analysis is worth your money that is a personal choice. But don't try and pretend that 67% of the people voting are not willing to give up their money because they can predict and analyze the draft just as easily as we can. Is that arrogance? To me, no. No more arrogant than a fireman scoffing at the idea that a group of "informed" citizens could put out fires just as well as they could. No more arrogant than a trained soldier listening to someone say that a group of paintball players could whip their butt on the battlefield.

Someone, somwhere, is laughing. Wait, I think that might be me...

I'm not sure what you mean by "putting my money where my mouth is" as I never said I was going to provide any type of service to anyone and didn't make any wagers. The fact is, Mel Kiper does this stuff 365 days a year, knows people in every organization, and he is still wrong with his "Big Board." It is little more than a guessing game after you assess every teams needs. We know the Phins need linebacker, secondary, and O-line help. You're going to tell me that from "analyzing" for hours every day that you know which player we are going to pick? Please.

I really feel bad for you guys if you actually spend as much time "plying away" as you say you do. Watching tape and analyzing still tells you nothing about what the people upstairs are thinking, and that's all that matters. There are people who spend significantly more time doing it than you do and they still get the picks wrong. I did an ESPN draft challenge a few years back...Had Rivers going at 4 when his stock was dropping pre-draft, I hit the first 7 picks in order. I finished in the top 50 out of tens of thousand of predictions. I did better than Kiper. And I don't watch any tape or analyze anything, I'm just a football fan! I could hit this draft the same way or I could get 7 of the first 10 wrong.

Unless you have some inside information, your guesses are just guesses. But maybe your experience in comparing college football players to the bonds market has given you some sort of edge.:shakeno:

 

[ckparrothead]

are we to understand that you guys are professional draft analysts then?

Hmm, well it depends. Personally, I do not have any bones with calling us professional draft analysts because that is indeed what we are. We're engaging in a money-making enterprise, we spend easily as much time developing models and databases, evaluating film, etc. as guys whose names you probably know. Boomer has been asked by Frank Coyle to work with him in the past, but Boomer had to turn him down because he had a baby on the way. Both Boomer and KB21 have done official draft analysis for FinHeaven, a money-making enterprise.

Personally this isn't about arrogance and this isn't about being smart. A roofer knows how to re-shingle a roof because he works on roofs often enough to know. An "informed" homeowner may think he can do it himself and save money, but his lack of experience could lead to problems.

Now OBVIOUSLY a roof that needs re-shingling is like, a need, where this is just a luxury. That's why I just say if you happen to enjoy this sort of thing, then go for it. If not, don't worry about it. We're not trying to peddle this off to people that don't want it. I just take issue when people pipe up and try and say that the reason nobody should buy us is because any lay fan that keeps track of things a little bit can do the same thing we do.

 

[Muck]

Hope no one minds, but I'm going to move this to the Draft forum.

We need some "sticky space". :)

 

[dlockz]

Still say go out and do your things and lets see the results. I think its great that you guys are planning something like this. I don't like how this thread got into more like having to defend ones knowledge or comparing the three of you to any of the gurus that do this for a living. I do think that I would avoid your business analysis due to you spending too much time on the football thing lol.

 

[DeDolfan]

Hmm, well it depends. Personally, I do not have any bones with calling us professional draft analysts because that is indeed what we are. We're engaging in a money-making enterprise, we spend easily as much time developing models and databases, evaluating film, etc. as guys whose names you probably know. Boomer has been asked by Frank Coyle to work with him in the past, but Boomer had to turn him down because he had a baby on the way. Both Boomer and KB21 have done official draft analysis for FinHeaven, a money-making enterprise.

Personally this isn't about arrogance and this isn't about being smart. A roofer knows how to re-shingle a roof because he works on roofs often enough to know. An "informed" homeowner may think he can do it himself and save money, but his lack of experience could lead to problems.

Now OBVIOUSLY a roof that needs re-shingling is like, a need, where this is just a luxury. That's why I just say if you happen to enjoy this sort of thing, then go for it. If not, don't worry about it. We're not trying to peddle this off to people that don't want it. I just take issue when people pipe up and try and say that the reason nobody should buy us is because any lay fan that keeps track of things a little bit can do the same thing we do.

I see what you're saying, CK, but the roofing job is pretty straight forward as is most jobs, meaning that there is usually only one way to do it....right. A roofer doesn't have the option of starting his shingles from the ridge and working down but has to start from the bottom up. What you guys are proposing to really has no right o wrong way. You say you study film, fine but what is a right way to do that acually? About the only way I know of to be truly accurate in predicting what our draft will be is to have a look in their draft [war] room just before he draft. In there, you will find a huge chart with columns of every position on a football team. In each column you'll find the top names of all collegiate players at those positions listed in order of preference by our FO. You'll see some info along with them, as 40 times, etc. For instance, under the QB column, they may have listed Cutler, Young, Leinhart............... and so on in oreder of our preference. That in itself does not necessarily mean if Cutler is available to us when we pick at #16 that we'll take him. Other things play into it that only Saban's group knows, things like do they prefer the BPA regardless of position or will they choose the bPA from our most need position. And these all depend on how other teams draft before us as well. Let's say that 2 marquee players fall to us, Ferguson and Cutler. If we sign a joey harrington, then the pick would be Ferguson but if the roster stays as is right now, then Cutler will be picked. If only Cutler falls and we have harrington, we may trade down. my whole point is not to rain on your parade at all but only to realize just how much a guessing game it really is. That's why the mock drafts are constantly changing daily due to the chaging circumstances. If this is what you feel you want to do, super. I'll read it as well as others but with the same POV tho. Good luck with it and one thing is for certain in it tho and that is somebody will wind up being the most accurate analysts.

 

[Marino2Clayton]

I have some questions?

Both Boomer and KB21 have done official draft analysis for FinHeaven, a money-making enterprise.

How is FinHeaven a money making enterprise?

evaluating film

Do you guys have coaches film or are you just watching taped tv broadcasts?

I just take issue when people pipe up and try and say that the reason nobody should buy us is because any lay fan that keeps track of things a little bit can do the same thing we do.

Are you serious?

 

[BlueFin]

Well then I invite you to put your money where you mouth is and create more informative, detailed, and accurate draft predictions.

Personally I find the idea absurd that the draft is a guessing game. It reminds me of the people that say the stock market is a guessing game just because they're too lazy to do informative research.

I also find it absurd that some folks think that fans that do not spend time researching this topic can be consistently as accurate as those that do. That in turn reminds me of the year 2000 day traders that went ahead piling up uninformed day trades to stockpile money because by golly ya can't go wrong with tech! Until 2001...when they lost their life savings.

What makes a "professional" anyway? Here I thought what makes a professional is a guy who spends a lot of time plying away at his trade and makes money off it. Guess what, all three of us spend more manhours in a single day plying away at this trade than most "informed" fans do in a week or more.

If you don't think draft analysis is worth your money that is a personal choice. But don't try and pretend that 67% of the people voting are not willing to give up their money because they can predict and analyze the draft just as easily as we can. Is that arrogance? To me, no. No more arrogant than a fireman scoffing at the idea that a group of "informed" citizens could put out fires just as well as they could. No more arrogant than a trained soldier listening to someone say that a group of paintball players could whip their butt on the battlefield.

Someone, somwhere, is laughing. Wait, I think that might be me...

Well, perhaps we should have some sort of draft contest where members compete to accurately pick whom the Dolphins will select in the rounds that they possess draft picks and see just how good we all are at it?

 

[SSMiami]

Well, perhaps we should have some sort of draft contest where members compete to accurately pick whom the Dolphins will select in the rounds that they possess draft picks and see just how good we all are at it?

Its not just who we pick, but info on all possable prospects, that could be selected.

 

[ckparrothead]

I would just like to again urge people who are interested in chatting with Boomer, myself, and KB21 during draft day to sign up for the draft day chat we will be holding.

We believe the experience will be pleasant and well worth the measly $5 cover charge.

If you would like to sign up, you can do so by visiting www.paypal.com and opening a quick personal account, then using a credit card to make a $5 payment to ckparrothead@yahoo.com

It is important that in the email note that goes along with the payment you fill in

A) Your email address
B) Your FH nickname
C) A password that you choose for yourself

We will be using the email addy to contact you with final instructions for the Draft Chat. We will be using the other info to verify chat users during the draft to make sure we don't have free loaders.

Come chat with Boomer, KB21, and myself. We really don't think you'll regret it!