The number has come down from the opener. It opened -1.5 and -2 in some spots.
3 is the accepted number for NFL home field advantage. Actually it is lower than that, if we want to get technical. It is closer to 2.5 points. I remember in 1989 when a nerdy numbers guy finished a long summer research and announced to our group at the Horseshoe that NFL home field was actually 2.38 points. Everyone laughed. We kidded him about it. We'd call him "238." He didn't budge at all.
He had more than a little bit of credibility. After all, he was the guy who came up with the surrender option in blackjack and proposed it to the casinos, including all his mathematical research. They were so impressed they accepted it, once he demonstrated to them that the typical player would surrender more often than proper. The advantage would shift slightly more to the house.
The oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough told me one time that one of his top guys insisted 2.68 points.
In the subsequent 3 decades I have always seen NFL home field estimated between 2.3 and 2.75. This recent study has it at 2.31:
NFL betting tips: How much home-field advantage is worth for every NFL team in 2019
Home-field advantage is worth far below the widely-believed three points on average and varies from team to team
www.cbssports.com
It is the reason that NFL games among evenly ranked teams often are quoted at -3 Even money, or -2.5 with -120. The oddsmakers know that a flat 3 is just a bit too rich.
Home field is more significant in the playoffs than regular season, BTW, especially beyond the wild card round.
Anyway, weak teams like the Dolphins and Bengals don't receive full home field allotment. Not at this time of year. It would be even lower than the 2.5 points. Basic reason: Nobody is eager to give points with teams like that. If you turned it around and made Cincinnati the home team they also would not be much of a favorite, although higher than -1. The Giants were -3.5 largely due to the Manning situation and belief the Giants would play energized for him. That type of factor doesn't apply to this game.
I suppose one of the major betting groups could shove it higher. That's the only logical method. The public will mostly leave it alone. From working in the sportsbooks I remember we always got very low action on games like this.
