ESPN Analyzes 3 Drafts 2006-8 & Re-Drafts

[JerryD]

ESPN analyzes the 1st Round Draft Picks for 3 Drafts, 2006-2008. Then Ranks how players SHOULD HAVE been drafted in Hind Sight. Quite interesting how data shows the draft is inexact picking as we all are aware. Hindsight's 20/20, but you see how good teams became good, by NOT screwing up, more than getting lucky.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=6528474

Dolphins Results ... all 3 #1picks should have been drafted lower ... and I put the player ESPN Rates to be picked in our slot underneath.

Pick Player Team Position Original Pick Change

Draft Year: 2006
182 Jason Allen Dolphins S 16 -166 (i.e. Shows JA should go 182, put picked 166 slots too high)
(Re-Draft Pick #16)
16 Tamba Hali Chiefs DE 20 +4

Draft Year: 2007
143 Ted Ginn Jr. Dolphins WR 9 -134
(Re-Draft Pick #9)
9 LaMarr Woodley Steelers LB 46 +37

Draft Year: 2008
10 Jake Long Dolphins OT 1 -9
(Re-Draft Pick #1)
1 Matt Ryan Falcons QB 3 +2

 

[PJack]

We are a proven poor drafting team, but saying a 3 time Pro-Bowl Left Tackle in Long would have fallen to number 9 behind 3 running backs and 2 WR (including Pierre Garcon???!!!), I have to call BULLSH*** in a big way.

 

[phintim]

We are a proven poor drafting team, but saying a 3 time Pro-Bowl Left Tackle in Long would have fallen to number 9 behind 3 running backs and 2 WR (including Pierre Garcon???!!!), I have to call BULLSH*** in a big way.

Agreed he was at least a top 3 pick and I am happY we took him than the DE Long. Ryan was a different deal but the jury was out on the Ryann back then I remember so hind sight is 20/20

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Interesting how there isn't really any correlation between team success and their overall +/- rankings for the three years. If their ratings were accurate at all, you'd think there would be.

 

[JerryD]

There are some big lessons to be learned from this data, that serious football folks know, but is quantified here .... here's what I see ....

Observation: The top/best players are almost all from the first 4 Rounds (top 125 players) (i.e. 2006: 1st=16 + 2nd=6 + 3rd=3 + 4th=4 = 29 )

Conclusion: Scouting/Rating is accurate, but not precise. Maybe smartest to accumulate 2nd, 3rd & 4th Round picks. (Belichick is the only guying doing this & does it big time.)

Lesson: Spend more money on scouting, and you can have more success & save on Free Agents. Better/Smarter/Cheaper road to success.

What's important is if a player produces Solid NFL Contributions ... NOT if he is best ... I wouldn't even worry about where this ESPN-Guy subjectively rates a player (i.e. Long), its his opinion & looks like he used some Fantasy Stats as RBs & WRs are rated so high. They rate Clady over Long & as several said, also some RBs & WRs .... YAWN!! I just care that Long is a Solid NFL Contributor ... could care less what others do on other teams. HOWEVER, the premise of this Re-Draft article is big-picture solid.

My Draft Opinion (every year) ... Just get me some solid NFL Football Players, I don't care what position or round. If that happens consistently we'll be a top team & it will be easy to plug a couple holes in Free Agency.

If you want to see how Successful Teams DID IT, look here .... pick a successful team like Green Bay or New Orleans ... then check the Wiki links on their Draft for about 5 years. Here's how to easily see the data & info ..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_NFL_Draft ... vary years in URL to see all the NFL Drafts.

Click on a Team like Green Bay http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Green_Bay_Packers_season ... vary years in URL to see all the Green Bay Drafts.

You will quickly see the good teams had several Great Drafts ... or consistently Good Drafts.

 

[PJack]

Interesting how there isn't really any correlation between team success and their overall +/- rankings for the three years. If their ratings were accurate at all, you'd think there would be.

Interesting in that of the last 6 Superbowls none of these teams falls outside the top 12. The BIG common denominator of those teams that were very successful however is....a FRANCHISE QB (Rogers, Brees, Manning, Roethlisberger, Manning). Most of the other teams in the top 12 that were unsuccessful include the Titans, Panthers, Broncos, Vikings and Chiefs have had poor QB play save 1 year for the Vikes and Chiefs. Those years Favre had a great year in 09 and Cassell in 10...both years they made the playoffs. Nothing here surprises me in the least....though depressing if you are a Dolphin fan.

 

[emeraldfin]

An OLB tandem of Woodley and Hali = the stuff of nightmares for opposing OC's.

 

[ROADRUNNER]

Man we suck..............:foundout: