Feverdream
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I believe that a lot of fans have unrealistic expectations about the draft, and how (and why) GMs use their draft picks... stay with me, and I'll try to convince you.
Let's start with a few premises.
1) A good % of first and second round picks bust. They always have; they always will. Even the Hall of Fame GMs miss on at least half of their picks.
2) Many great players needed a year or two (or three) to hit their stride. There are a lot of Hall of Fame players who barely played as rookies. Heck, some of them stunk.
So...
3) Expecting that our picks will play immediately... and be successful... is well, like believing in magic or a flat Earth. This has nothing to do with Grier... it's just the reality of the NFL.
That brings me to the following observations:
1) Fans who say, we lost this star player, so that means we have to draft his same position to keep pace with what we had... well, that's poorly thought out, as well as wildly optimistic.
2) Positional value is king in the NFL. Some positions are waaaaay cheaper than others. Go to a site like overthecap.com and look at their lists of the top-paid players at each position.
Scan down to the players listed 20-40. That is what an average FA player from that position will typically receive when they sign a 1-2 year contract. These are the band-aid players; players good enough to start for you when you are in need... guys who'll save you the aggravation of drafting a rookie. These guys, unlike rookies, are KNOWN commodities; they are what their playing position is actually worth.
So, on to what you should be considering with your draft picks.
1) Since we've identified what a position is worth; we are clearly trying to maximize value... right? If there are 20 Free Agent Safetys with starting experience... and they only cost 2-4m per year. Why would you draft one with an early pick? It's only gonna pay off if that player ends up as a Hall of Fame caliber player, and in the salary cap era, maybe not even then.
So...
2) The smart play is in drafting players from EXPENSIVE positions (again, go to the OTC site and see which ones qualify). Yes, need is part of the equation, but you have to draft players that you'll be willing to eventually pay. Drafting a player that you will just let walk away in 4 years is well... stupid (and why I led the resistance to drafting Najee Harris).
And finally...
3) You've got to consider WHEN your existing players are going to fall off your roster before you draft potential stars at expensive positions. Next year, we KNOW that Armstead is gone. Last year, we KNEW we'd be cutting Hoard this year.
So you get out ahead of your losses. We took Cam Smith in the 2nd, and while we are unsure of whether this will work, it was the right play. Replace the expensive player a year early... SCHEDULE X's departure.
Unexpected losses... you fill those with league average FAs. That's how we got Connor Williams... and Elliot.
Yes, I've gone through a lot of words to tell you WHY Tackle is first on our list of needs. It's a year early for a WR. We have Smith at CB and need to give him a year. Tua... we are resigning. Chubb and Phillips... might not be ready right away, but they are keepers.
The expensive position where we have a scheduled NEED is at LT. Yes, we need a Guard and a Center immediately... but go back to OTC and look at the price for average players.
...and yes, we have immediate needs at several positions, but again... go back to the basic premises... at least half of the rookies will NOT fill these needs. 80 years of NFL history will show this.
As always... your milage may differ.
Let's start with a few premises.
1) A good % of first and second round picks bust. They always have; they always will. Even the Hall of Fame GMs miss on at least half of their picks.
2) Many great players needed a year or two (or three) to hit their stride. There are a lot of Hall of Fame players who barely played as rookies. Heck, some of them stunk.
So...
3) Expecting that our picks will play immediately... and be successful... is well, like believing in magic or a flat Earth. This has nothing to do with Grier... it's just the reality of the NFL.
That brings me to the following observations:
1) Fans who say, we lost this star player, so that means we have to draft his same position to keep pace with what we had... well, that's poorly thought out, as well as wildly optimistic.
2) Positional value is king in the NFL. Some positions are waaaaay cheaper than others. Go to a site like overthecap.com and look at their lists of the top-paid players at each position.
Scan down to the players listed 20-40. That is what an average FA player from that position will typically receive when they sign a 1-2 year contract. These are the band-aid players; players good enough to start for you when you are in need... guys who'll save you the aggravation of drafting a rookie. These guys, unlike rookies, are KNOWN commodities; they are what their playing position is actually worth.
So, on to what you should be considering with your draft picks.
1) Since we've identified what a position is worth; we are clearly trying to maximize value... right? If there are 20 Free Agent Safetys with starting experience... and they only cost 2-4m per year. Why would you draft one with an early pick? It's only gonna pay off if that player ends up as a Hall of Fame caliber player, and in the salary cap era, maybe not even then.
So...
2) The smart play is in drafting players from EXPENSIVE positions (again, go to the OTC site and see which ones qualify). Yes, need is part of the equation, but you have to draft players that you'll be willing to eventually pay. Drafting a player that you will just let walk away in 4 years is well... stupid (and why I led the resistance to drafting Najee Harris).
And finally...
3) You've got to consider WHEN your existing players are going to fall off your roster before you draft potential stars at expensive positions. Next year, we KNOW that Armstead is gone. Last year, we KNEW we'd be cutting Hoard this year.
So you get out ahead of your losses. We took Cam Smith in the 2nd, and while we are unsure of whether this will work, it was the right play. Replace the expensive player a year early... SCHEDULE X's departure.
Unexpected losses... you fill those with league average FAs. That's how we got Connor Williams... and Elliot.
Yes, I've gone through a lot of words to tell you WHY Tackle is first on our list of needs. It's a year early for a WR. We have Smith at CB and need to give him a year. Tua... we are resigning. Chubb and Phillips... might not be ready right away, but they are keepers.
The expensive position where we have a scheduled NEED is at LT. Yes, we need a Guard and a Center immediately... but go back to OTC and look at the price for average players.
...and yes, we have immediate needs at several positions, but again... go back to the basic premises... at least half of the rookies will NOT fill these needs. 80 years of NFL history will show this.
As always... your milage may differ.
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