J-Off's 2020 Sideways Board

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I was very surprised at how much Hurts has improved from his time at Alabama. He's a very under rated QB. No question, he needed to improve on his QB skills, because his Athletic skills were far more superior. Something changed with regards to his QB skills catching up to the athlete. He's a leader and a great kid. I believe his best QBing days are in front of him. The question now becomes, if Miami drafts him, can they develop him. I'm not so sure about that at the moment. The outgoing coaching staff were known to be developers, whereas, I'm not sure what Gailey bring in terms of developmental skills.

I have a similar take. I didn't see Hurts as an NFL quarterback when I saw him play at Alabama, although I loved his athletic ability. He has improved, which is a great sign. He's also endured and won at two major programs. There's a lot to like about him, beginning with big plays.

Still not sure he can take that next step. My concern with Hurts is similar with Herbert. They both seem to be a little slow in processing. Herbert's probably further along there, where Hurts tends to run pretty quickly when things break down.

I do think Miami finally has the coaching staff that can make the difference in player development. I think both Herbert and Hurts are known to be players who work hard. I think both of them have their best football in front of them.

 

[nick1]

Sounds like Hurts is a better get later then Herbert would be at 5

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Sounds like Hurts is a better get later then Herbert would be at 5

That's the question. I think Herbert is better than Hurts, but not sure there's as big a gap as a lot of "media scouts" are saying. I know Daniel Jeremiah has Hurts as his 50th ranked prospect and Herbert somewhere around 20. I think most view Hurts as a 2nd rounder, but lately you are beginning to hear talk about late first round. Herbert is bound to go top 10, with Miami and the Chargers as the most likely spots.

Anyway, to your question. Would you prefer Simmons/Brown at #5, maybe Thomas at #18 and Hurts at #26, or Herbert at #5, Thomas at #18 and maybe McKinney at #26? Of course, there are many possibilities. I think those are the type of discussions front offices are having.

 

[dolfan91]

Hurts could very well be the proverbial "Late Bloomer"!!! I think he's now worth trying to develop, he's come that far.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I'm going to drop this in here instead of a separate thread. CommonManFootball is one of my favorites on YouTube, with the analytics focus including market share and age emphasis. He hasn't been producing as much content lately. However, yesterday's video was interesting. It spotlighted each position and the success rate by round. Success is defined by 64+ starts.

Yeah, yeah, I know, there's no criteria for quality of those starts. Everyone wants more variables instead of fewer. This is a guideline toward which positions seemingly are wise or unwise investments at each stage of the draft.

He broke it down from 1969 through present and then separately for the most recent 10 years:



Some takeaways:

* You're kidding yourself beyond the second round. That's why I never understand the determination to trade down for extra 3rd and 4th round picks. Simply too much burden on the selector and low connect rate overall. It is the reason I would prefer to pay more for picks within the top 40 than pretend I could make up for it with guys taken 88th or 117th

* Late round quarterbacks are a joke. The league has gotten worse at picking quarterbacks in general, or should I say college quarterbacks have become more difficult to evaluate. We have discussed that around here. It is more or less throwing away a pick to take a quarterback late. Given the immense value of the position, with only high round selections clicking but not at a great rate even in the first round, I am more and more convinced that eventually it will be acknowledged as analytically correct to take multiple quarterbacks within the first round, the opportunity the Dolphins hold this year.

* Wide receiver has been problematic and remains problematic. The first round connect rate is not impressive and other than quarterback it is the only position where the second round percentage is below 50%, regardless of the long term view or merely the most recent 10 years. I remember the first guy I met in Las Vegas in 1984 who shared my interest in the draft was a guy named Steve from Maryland. One day at the Stardust he surprised me by emphasizing. "I give up on wide receivers. I've always had trouble with that position. I can't figure it out." Huh. Until that point I thought wide receivers were fairly easy. Not until much later did I realize I was struggling also. So much mental fortitude required at that position.

* Defensive tackle really flattens out. Lousy recent numbers in the second round but quite good in the 4th and 5th. Defensive back is also very similar from 3rd through 5th recently. Running back recently no appreciable difference from 2nd through 4th. In fact, 2nd round running backs within the past 10 year category have a ghastly "success" rate of 34%. It will be interesting to see if the Dolphins buck that finding this year. Keep in mind the 10 year framework is 2005 through 2015. Naturally you can't use a 64 game criteria and be including guys from the past few drafts. He said he would begin including 2016 next year

* The only green >80% numbers are the first round of the past 10 years at tight end, center, linebacker and defensive back. Overall I'd say the linebacker numbers surprised me more than any other position. The league has gotten better at first round linebackers. Higher numbers than I realized, although the 3rd and 4th round have really fallen off lately compared to the long term percentage. That's undoubtedly the proliferation of passing. I remember lots of successful tough thumper linebackers in those mid rounds in prior decades.

* Offensive tackle is solid across the board although first round not particularly great. Wide receiver is low early then really falls off after the third round. Looks like 3rd and especially 4th round the focus should be linemen and tight ends. Still plenty of connect rates in the mid 40s at those positions, especially recently. The exception would be guards. Guard is solid through the 3rd round and then really drops in the 4th. That is true long term and the 10 year sample The guard position in this era almost looks like it deserves a scout who specializes in that position alone. Find a scout who has a good feel for that position in the later rounds and make sure to lock him up long term

* No reason to take skill positions in the 7th round. More or less a forfeited pick. I remember being ticked that the Dolphins wasted two 7th round picks at running back last season. Clear cut in the 7th round the emphasis should be defense. Also on offensive tackle, although that is more the 10 year sampling than the 50 year

* Center looks like a great investment early. Second round center is comparatively great value whether it's the 50 year or especially the 10 year. Of course, Dwight Stephenson is included in the tally...2nd round 1980

 

[j-off-her-doll]

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

J-doll -

It’s interesting because me and you typically evaluate prospects the same way and usually aren’t far apart.

Jalen Hurts is without a doubt the furthest apart you and I have ever been on a player.

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

I have come to really like Shenault. His YAC wold bring something the Fins don't really have at WR.

Albert Wilson does this as good as Shenault...but has done it in the NFL.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

J-doll -

It’s interesting because me and you typically evaluate prospects the same way and usually aren’t far apart.

Jalen Hurts is without a doubt the furthest apart you and I have ever been on a player.

I agree. QB's are weird, and I understand not liking him. There are things I don't like, but he checks a lot of my big boxes, and I like his track. I think his skillset will translate.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

In terms of concerns coming out of college, there is a lot of overlap with Hurts and Prescott, a fair amount with Kaepernick, and even some with Mahomes.

This is just to say, a lot of the issues that could be framed, and have been framed, as death knells for Hurts can be improved and mitigated at the next level. If a guy is "doing everything right" but still produces mediocre results (Josh Rosen), that's more concerning - to me - than a guy who needs to fix some things but still produces at a high level.

Dak Prescott Stats, News and Video - QB | NFL.com

Latest on QB Dak Prescott including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on NFL.com

www.nfl.com

Colin Kaepernick Stats, News and Video - QB | NFL.com

Latest on QB Colin Kaepernick including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on NFL.com

www.nfl.com

Patrick Mahomes Stats, News and Video - QB | NFL.com

Latest on QB Patrick Mahomes including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on NFL.com

www.nfl.com

Jalen Hurts Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

All Combine and Draft-Related Analysis, News, Video, and Biographical Information for Jalen Hurts

www.nfl.com

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

J-doll -

It’s interesting because me and you typically evaluate prospects the same way and usually aren’t far apart.

Jalen Hurts is without a doubt the furthest apart you and I have ever been on a player.

Would love to hear your take on Hurts. I know you saw him a lot at Alabama. He seems to have taken another step at Oklahoma. I see flaws, just wonder how much is coachable?

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

In terms of concerns coming out of college, there is a lot of overlap with Hurts and Prescott, a fair amount with Kaepernick, and even some with Mahomes.

This is just to say, a lot of the issues that could be framed, and have been framed, as death knells for Hurts can be improved and mitigated at the next level. If a guy is "doing everything right" but still produces mediocre results (Josh Rosen), that's more concerning - to me - than a guy who needs to fix some things but still produces at a high level.

Dak Prescott Stats, News and Video - QB | NFL.com

Latest on QB Dak Prescott including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on NFL.com

www.nfl.com

Colin Kaepernick Stats, News and Video - QB | NFL.com

Latest on QB Colin Kaepernick including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on NFL.com

www.nfl.com

Patrick Mahomes Stats, News and Video - QB | NFL.com

Latest on QB Patrick Mahomes including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on NFL.com

www.nfl.com

Jalen Hurts Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

All Combine and Draft-Related Analysis, News, Video, and Biographical Information for Jalen Hurts

www.nfl.com

I'm not sure exactly where he falls as a quarterback, but I think his floor is at least a little higher than Tyrod Taylor. To me, Taylor is a high end backup/low end starter. That might be how NFL scouts view Hurts as well. I do respect Daniel Jeremiah because I know he was a scout. He has a pretty big gap between #4 Love and #5 Hurts.

You've made great point about Hurts. I think there are some comparisons to Kaepernick, more than I see with Prescott. I just don't know if his weaknesses are coachable. If they are, we are talking about a player who could be a top 10 type quarterback in the NFL IMO.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Best values relative to expert aggregate from Grinding the Mocks:

QB

Jalen Hurts ranked 97th
Jake From ranked 83rd


RB

AJ Dillon 134th
Joshua Kelley 163rd

WR

Jalen Reagor 36th
Bryan Edwards 104th
Tyler Johnson 112th
Donovan Peoples-Jones 87th
Isaiah Hodgins 201st

TE

Cole Kmet 52nd

OT

Isaiah Wilson 46th
Matthew Peart 76th
Lucas Niang 80th
Saahdiq Charles 89th
Jack Driscoll 151st
Alex Taylor 155th

OG

Damien Lewis 131st
John Simpson 147th
Tyre Phillips 286th

C

Cesar Ruiz 47th
Matt Hennessy 96th

Pass Rusher

Curtis Weaver 88th

DT

Jordan Elliott 102nd
DaVon Hamilton 126th
McTelvin Agim 247th

LB

Malik Harrison 114th

CB

Michael Ojemudia 127th
Darnay Holmes 124th
Kindle Vildor 239th

S

Antoine Winfield Jr 50th

Grinding the Mocks

grindingthemocks.shinyapps.io

 

[Lovethefish]

Best values relative to expert aggregate from Grinding the Mocks:

QB

Jalen Hurts ranked 97th
Jake From ranked 83rd


RB

AJ Dillon 134th
Joshua Kelley 163rd

WR

Jalen Reagor 36th
Bryan Edwards 104th
Tyler Johnson 112th
Donovan Peoples-Jones 87th
Isaiah Hodgins 201st

TE

Cole Kmet 52nd

OT

Isaiah Wilson 46th
Matthew Peart 76th
Lucas Niang 80th
Saahdiq Charles 89th
Jack Driscoll 151st
Alex Taylor 155th

OG

Damien Lewis 131st
John Simpson 147th
Tyre Phillips 286th

C

Cesar Ruiz 47th
Matt Hennessy 96th

Pass Rusher

Curtis Weaver 88th

DT

Jordan Elliott 102nd
DaVon Hamilton 126th
McTelvin Agim 247th

LB

Malik Harrison 114th

CB

Michael Ojemudia 127th
Darnay Holmes 124th
Kindle Vildor 239th

S

Antoine Winfield Jr 50th

Grinding the Mocks

grindingthemocks.shinyapps.io

Very thorough list!

 

[jimthefin]

Albert Wilson does this as good as Shenault...but has done it in the NFL.

True, but he has durability issues and certainly was not the player in Miami that he was before the hip injury.

He also makes too much money, which is not an issue right now.But could be evntually.