J-Off's Caught Stealing (best values of 2017 NFL Draft)

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by j-off-her-doll, Aug 2, 2017.

  1. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    With the HOF Game on the horizon, I thought it'd be a fun time to look at the picks I expect to yield the greatest returns. Due to time constraints, I'm posting the list, and I'll update it with my thoughts on each pick (and fit) as I'm able.

    We're going to start in the 7th RD and count down to the 1st. I'm not doing UDFA's. You'll notice that certain rounds only have a few players. I didn't approach this with quotas in mind. And, the NFL did a pretty good job of scooping up high-end talent before the final rounds, but I think a few slipped through the cracks. We'll get to those now. Enjoy!

    [​IMG]

    7th RD

    It's not impossible to find Pro Bowl/All Pro talent in the 7th, but, for obvious reasons, it's rare. These guys have starter potential.

    243. Houston - Kyle Fuller C Baylor - Fuller has the body and athleticism to fill in at OG if need be. He has very long arms for an interior OL, and Maurkice Pouncey is one of his closest athletic comps. He's raw in his technique, but, at Baylor, he showed flashes of dominance and the ability to move to the second level. Of the players drafted in the 7th, I think he has the best shot, even if it's a small one, to develop into a Pro Bowl player. I expected him to go in the 3rd-5th range. I listed him as potential target for Miami at 97 - in a grouping with Pocic and Elflein.

    237. Miami - Isaiah Ford WR Virginia Tech - While Ford's speed limits what you can do with him at WR, he shows good burst coming out of his breaks, and he's shown the ability to high point the ball and make contested catches. Successful WR's come in many shapes and sizes. I think Ford fell, because he's awkward to watch, but he knows how to win, and he won consistently at Virginia Tech. Like Fuller, I thought he should have went in the 3rd-5th range. Miami really didn't need another WR, but reports say they viewed him as too good to bypass in the 7th. I don't have any gripe with this pick, but if I wanted to nitpick, Fuller offered similar value at a position of need for Miami.

    232. Minnesota - Elijah Lee LB Kansas St - Lee reminds me a bit of Telvin Smith. He makes a lot of tackles, is a limited athlete but has plus traits (burst). He covers well and has shown the ability to make plays on the ball. Even by WLB standards, he doesn't deal with blockers particularly well, but he should be a solid, sub-package LB for Minnesota early in his career, and I had him grouped with LB's who went off the board much earlier (Duke Riley and Alex Anzalone to name a couple).

    6th RD

    211. New England - Connor McDermott OT UCLA
    209. Washington - Robert Davis WR Georgia St
    201. Minnesota - Bucky Hodges TE Virginia Tech
    191. Dallas - Xavier Woods S Louisiana Tech
    186. Baltimore - Chuck Clark S Virginia Tech

    5th RD

    184. Philadelphia - Nate Gerry S Nebraska
    182. Green Bay - Aaron Jones RB UTEP
    161. Indianapolis - Anthony Walker Jr LB Northwestern
    152. Carolina - Corn Elder CB Miami
    151. Los Angeles Chargers - Desmond King CB Iowa
    148. Jacksonville - Blair Brown LB Ohio
    146. San Francisco - George Kittle TE Iowa
    145. Denver - Jake Butt TE Michigan

    4th RD

    131. New England - Deatrich Wise Jr DE Arkansas
    117. Los Angeles Rams - Josh Reynolds WR Texas A&M
    115. Arizona - Dorian Johnson OG Pittsburgh
    113. Los Angeles Chargers - Rayshawn Jenkins S Miami
    108. Green Bay - Vince Biegel OL Wisconsin

    3rd RD

    103. New Orleans - Trey Hendrickson DE Florida Atlantic
    100. Tennessee - Jonnu Smith TE Florida International
    93. Green Bay - Montravius Adams DT Auburn
    90. Seattle - Shaquill Griffin CB Central Florida
    89. Houston - D'Onta Foreman RB Texas
    84. Tampa Bay - Chris Godwin WR Penn St
    83. New England - Derek Rivers DE Youngstown St
    77. Carolina - Daeshon Hall DE Texas A&M
    74. Baltimore - Chris Wormley DE/DT Michigan
    73. Cincinnati - Jordan Willis DE Kansas St
    72. Tennessee - Taywan Taylor WR Western Kentucky
    71. Los Angeles Chargers - Dan Feeney OG Indiana
    66. San Francisco - Ahkello Witherspoon CB Colorado

    2nd RD

    57. Houston - Zach Cunningham LB Vanderbilt
    54. Miami - Raekwon McMillan LB Ohio St
    47. Baltimore - Tyus Bowser OLB Houston
    42. New Orleans - Marcus Williams S Utah
    34. Jacksonville - Cam Robinson OT Alabama

    1st RD

    30. Pittsburgh - TJ Watt OLB Wisconsin
    29. Cleveland - David Njoku TE Miami
    19. Tampa Bay - OJ Howard TE Alabama
    14. Indianapolis - Malik Hooker S Ohio St
    12. Houston - Deshaun Watson QB Clemson
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2017
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  2. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Predictably for me at least, reports out of 49ers camp aren't good for C.J. Beathard or Akhello Witherspoon. I didn't like either of em....neither were on my board. I've always felt Lynch would rue those two picks.

    Meanwhile, I think Rueben Foster had two pick-sixes in the first 3 days of camp.

    Taco Charlton has been a dud as a pass rusher in Cowboys camp also. Again, no surprise there. Conversely, no surprise that DeMarcus Walker has been on fire as a pass rusher in Broncos camp...both at DL and linebacker.

    Tre'Davious White has been very impressive in Bills camp. As I said on draft day, he's the guy I would've taken for Miami in the 1st round.

    As long as he doesn't get hurt or something Christian McCaffrey should be right there among the top 2 or 3 for NFC offensive ROY award when the season is over. Along with O.J. Howard.
     
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  3. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    Great list. Did you rate Asiata as a 5th round steal, or is that in the range you saw him going?
     
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  4. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I can definitely see why you'd dislike Witherspoon's game. His lack of physicality at Colorado was pretty appalling, but his combination of length and athleticism are relatively rare, and I was impressed with his ability to mirror (think I posted a gif of him sticking with John Ross a few months ago). Because of the lack of physicality, he has higher bust potential, and you could well be right to leave him off your board. He's a mixed bag of extremes, and I'll be curious to see which win out. No idea how Betherd was drafted.

    Agree on McCaffrey. If Howard is in the running it'll be very impressive, and I wouldn't bet against his talent (should have gone top-10). Don't think Fournette has the situation to do enough in Jacksonville, but he has a shot. Deshaun Watson is probably my favorite to win it. With that D, he should be able to maintain a patient approach, and his playmaking ability isn't in question. Also, Houston should win that division if he plays well.

    White is a great fit in McDermott's D.

    Not surprised that Taco is struggling. I expect that to be a career-long thing. Deatrich Wise is getting run with the 1's in NE, and he should have a better career than Chalrton.

    Cleveland had a chance to be good-ish in 2017 - at least toward the end of the season. Garrett and Ogbah probably won't be a top pair right away, but with an eye on the future, they should be one of the top 2 or 3 pass-rushing duos for the next 5+ years. Peppers has already received some very positive reports, as well.
     
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  5. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I thought it was appropriate value for Asiata. Because of his age, there's not as much room for improvement, and he came with questions about his balance and athleticism. He's very physical, but I wasn't as high on him as most of the board.
     
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  6. Austin Tatious

    Austin Tatious Starter

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    Great stuff, J. As with all your information and research, it is much appreciated and enjoyed.
     
  7. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Stacy Coley was a steal too man

     
  8. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Unrelated but here's the guy we missed on. Derek Barnett



     
  9. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    I don't know if Miami missed on him or not, as he was already gone when Miami picked and I have no knowledge of what their plans were on draft day.

    However, Charles Harris is not and never was in Derek Barnett's category. I don't care how happy Miami was to get him. I had Barnett #11 overall on my board and Harris #57 overall.

    I also felt like Demarcus Walker and Jordan Willis were both better prospects than Harris, and both look better to me for their respective teams. It's awful early, but I'm just not a Charles Harris guy. He's ok, just feel like I could've done better with that pick.
     
  10. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    DeAngelo Yancey too. I'm baffled how he lasted until #175 overall. I had him #98 overall.

     
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  11. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Rumor was Barnett was the highest guy on our board, or at least one of the highest.
     
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  12. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    T.J. Watt at #30 was ridiculous. I had him #7 overall.

    No idea how these people drafting in the NFL manage to keep their jobs. 75% of GM's in the NFL are mostly clueless when it comes to evaluating college talent. There's only a handful that really know what they're doing, and those are the ones that have kept their positions for a long time. It's not the same as evaluating players who are already in the NFL.

    Think T.J. Watt just had 2 sacks before the national anthem was over.
     
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  13. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Yes sir! You and I were the only people I saw putting him in the top 10 - though, I know CK was high on him, too (just don't know where he had him). His combination of athleticism, power, tenacity, and pedigree was just too much.

    Jordan Willis also with a sack and a few tackles.
     
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  14. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Rueben Foster shows excellent recognition in coverage and displays his athleticism

     
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  15. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    I won't accuse 'em of missing out on Barnett based on rumors from sports journalists. Like I said, I don't know what their plan was.

    Although I do feel like they missed out on Walker, Willis, Foster, Watt, and White. They were available. I would've taken all 5 before Harris.
     
  16. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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  17. phinfan33

    phinfan33 A True Fan

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    Jordan Willis is who I was hoping we would've drafted. I'm no draft guru, nor am I even close to one. I was just going off a gut feeling I had on him, and usually when I get a gut feeling on a player, my feelings are right over 95% of the time. So I guess I'll find out soon enough if my gut was right on him or not.
     
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  18. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I don't wanna seem like I'm dumping on Harris. He beat his man consistently Thursday, as a DE that doesnt always end in sacks but if you keep doing it they will come. And the kid is a sponge, JT said he was the first guy to ever ask him to watch film with him
     
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  19. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    No kidding. I mentioned Coley several times early in the draft process, specifically when he was slated to play in that East-West Shrine Game or whatever it was.

    Coley was a gliding superstar as a freshman with the Canes. Receiving and returns. He reminded me of a poor man's John Stallworth and I all but conceded he'd be gone as a first round pick after three years. That was also the consensus on Canes forums. Then I can't really figure out what happened the next couple of years. He always showed up huge against Florida State since there was still some bitterness there on the Tallahassee end. The Seminoles assumed they had him signed. Jimbo Fisher was absolutely stunned when Coley switched the Miami at the last minute. So Coley no doubt heard the digs against him when Florida State was winning or contending for titles while the program he chose was doing nothing except suffering through coaching controversy. He starred against Florida State but until some improvement his senior year he never resembled that freshman form again.

    I always believe in concealed talent when available at bargain rate. This was a good example. There were not major injury concerns or off field problems. Just the opposite. He's always reported as a great kid and quite humble. Coley was fast at the combine but not the touted 4.3 stuff so his opportunity to reassert himself didn't happen.

    Anyway, it's another example of one of my main themes -- major college later round sleepers instead of wasting time with mid level programs or especially the smaller schools. That may feel more satisfying when it clicks, like you've outsmarted the world, but who gives a damn? Too much burden is not sustainable. In the long run that approach is sacrificing margin for error instead of logically cheating to add a few percent to your likelihood. I'm hardly surprised Miami found a later gem from LSU. Gee, what a shock. That team always looks like the most talented team in the country man to man, just some rawness and undisciplined qualities. The places to look are schools that have been near the top of the recruiting rankings year after year but it hasn't fully translated to the won/loss record. Recent examples are LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, Texas and Miami. I would always concentrate there. No matter what it looks like subjectively, it will probably turn out better.

    ***

    Otherwise, I wasn't posting here at the time but Charles Harris was a major downer. It felt like a pick designed to remain in the middle of the pack. I posted that theme on some YouTube video comments and was attacked by Dolphin fans. Big deal.

    I wanted TJ Watt with that pick. I also would have been happy with Kevin King. Mostly I had rooted for O.J. Howard to somehow slip to our slot but that seemed destined to be a tease.

    Looking at other recent posts I think you guys are overly down on C.J. Beathard. I liked him as a 6th or 7th round flyer. I think I posted that here months before the draft. Good basic pro backup. I was beyond shocked where he was drafted.

    I have a friend from Las Vegas who is a 49ers fan and has been throwing out the term "franchise quarterback." I thought he was kidding. But then I checked the 49ers boards and that phrase has been attached to Beathard repeatedly. It's nuts. He has low upside. Apparently John Lynch used the term or something similar and the fan base got carried away.
     
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  20. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Speaking of Kevin King, Hollins treated him like his b*tch.

    I don't know how Mack Hollins lasted until the 118th pick. I had him #53 overall and a 2nd round grade. Looks like another receiver steal from the 2017 draft.



     
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  21. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Had a draftable grade on Akeem Judd, but he somehow went undrafted and signed with the Titans. Big powerful runner with good COD and elusiveness to make tacklers miss. Averaged over 10 yards/carry in his preseason debut with the Titans.



    I used to watch him rip off IZ runs like this in the SEC...

    http://www.ncaa.com/video/football/2015-10-31/fbs-highlights-ole-miss-auburn-akeem-judd-td



    IZ runs like this against Florida St....





    IZ runs like this against us...





    Now watch him make the same IZ run here for the Titans...

    http://www.titansonline.com/video/v...Big-Gain/c170d353-9315-4c9a-b66e-41fffe8ff7ca
     
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  22. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    I want to point this one out, as you deserve a lot of credit for nailing this one all throughout the pre-draft process. I had Wise #231 overall and he went 100 picks earlier. But that's beside the point. Point is, he's been getting run with the 1's in New England and apparently Belicheck loves the kid.

    Your eye for talent just baffles me sometimes. Well done.
     
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  23. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    His combination of size, toughness, and his ability to get in an out of his breaks at that size are not common. Every time I watched him at UNC, he dominated his opponent. I first noticed him when watching M. Alexander, and Hollins created separation with relative ease. I still don't understand how Hollins didn't put up big numbers at UNC. Any idea why he was so underutilized? I know they had other good WR's throughout his time there, but still!

    In addition to being a fairly unique WR talent, he brings value on ST's. King is a big, athletic CB, and that play really highlights just how big, quick, and physical Hollins is. It feels like the 2017 class will have more early contributors than most classes produce. 2016 was a bit of a down year, but this class feels like it could stack up with 2011 and 2015.

    Haven't had a chance to watch the game (brother is in town and not a football fan), but I've only read positive takes on Cam Robinson's first outing.
     
  24. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Thank you, Slimm! I do still think there's some bust potential with Wise, but there aren't many true 4-3 DE's with his combination of length and agility. If I had to pick a perfect landing spot for him, it'd be NE. I noticed that they put almost zero priority on speed at DE, but they do prioritize length, and they seem to take an either/or approach to the jumps and agility drills. Jones and Wise both have 35"+ arms, and Flowers has 34"+ arms, but he had the longest wingspan of any DE in the 2015 Draft (if I remember correctly). I was higher on Flowers than I am Wise, but Wise probably has more pass-rush upside off the edge. I don't think he'll be the same kind of force as Flowers is kicking inside, though.

    But, I've been picking your brain for years, and if there's a large disparity between your take on a player and my take, I typically have a sense of, 'Well, see how this goes.' Conversely, with a player like TJ Watt, who most people had in the 1st/2nd range, when I feel he's better than his consensus ranking, and I see that you also have him in the top 10, I take that as confirmation that I'm seeing the right things.
     
  25. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Zack Cunningham annihilated on an angle route out of the backfield by Rex Burkhead



     
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  26. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    This kid would be my pick for NFC Offensive Rookie of the Year




     
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  27. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    That's the part of his game I thought was overrated. He's not super rangy or quick. I thought he looked very good Week 1. His ability to defeat blocks, navigate traffic, and read the play quickly showed up, and he made a bunch of tackles near the LOS.

    When asked to cover a guy with the burst and agility of Burkhead, he'll struggle. In fairness to Cunningham, not many LB's can cover Burkhead, but he's not the sideline-to-sideline/coverage LB many people tried to make him. Most of his missed tackles at Vanderbilt were on plays where he couldn't quite get there/didn't have to strength to make an arm tackle.
     
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  28. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Jordan Willis had another good game. Blew by E. Fisher early, consistently applied pressure, collected another sack, and he made a really nice run stuff on 4th and 1. The Run D was much better when he was in the game. As Marvin Lewis said, he's a guy that always does the right thing. He got knocked by some for gathering his production against RT's at Kansas St, but he's been lining up at both DE spots for Cincinnati, and he was doing damage to KC's LT's. His timing on his spin move has not been good, but he looks to be improving in that area - saw his least-awkward spin move last night. If Cincinnati's DT's didn't play so poorly, Willis would have likely finished one or two more sacks; KC's QB's had ridiculously clean pockets, giving them plenty of room to step up.
     
  29. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    This was just the first one. He was obliterated again by another angle route out of the backfield by D.J. Foster that resulted in another TD. He simply couldn't match up on either.

    I'm pulling for the kid. Known him since high school, played against him in high school. I think it's great that a kid from little ol' Pinson has a shot at an NFL career. I want him to do well.

    But his tackling issues were a real concern for me vs. Alvin Kamara. I talked about how it doesn't get any easier for him trying to stop these backs in the NFL. Things like this is what he'll face every week.

    I was hoping he would stay in school one more year. I just never could see him being able to match up with backs at this level. It's going to be tough for him.
     
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  30. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Back to back plays for Hodges

     
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  31. phinfan33

    phinfan33 A True Fan

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    He got that sack one armed while his other arm was engaged with the RT...nice!!!
     
  32. gunn34

    gunn34 Pro Bowler

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    It'll be interesting to look at this list after year three.
     
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  33. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Slacking on this thread due to life getting busy, but I hope to keep this updated with relevant info.
     
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  34. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Deshaun Watson has set a rookie record with 10 total TD's over the last two weeks, and he has a shot to break both the rookie Passing TD (26) and total TD (35) record. He hasn't been perfect, missing some throws and reads, but the poise, instincts, feet, and playmaking ability he showed at Clemson are all on display in Houston. His completion percentage was not good against KC, but that's a D that plays tight coverage, and Watson's completion percentage (51%) is the same as KC has allowed all year. His 8.4 YPA in the game is a full yard better than the 7.4 they have allowed on the season.

    Below, I've posted some of his superlatives. I'm not endorsing any one of these metrics/takes, as much as I'm pointing out that most metrics point to him having an outstanding start to his career. Despite facing the highest percentage of pressure in the league, he's leading a consistent, explosive offense.









     
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  35. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    To the surprise of no one, Malik Hooker is a dynamic FS.

     
  36. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    TE's take time to develop in the NFL, but Howard's shown flashes, and his blocking has been solid in the games I've watched. It will be more interesting to Howard, Njoku, Engram, J. Smith, and Kittle in Year 2, but they've all shown flashes.

     
  37. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Speaking of Njoku, he's definitely flashed, and it's important to remember that he was one of the youngest players in the class - arrow pointing up.



     
  38. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Slimm and I were way higher on Watt than most draft folks - and the NFL. Pittsburgh currently has the #4 overall D, #1 Pass D, and the #6 Scoring D. When you draft guys like Shazier, Tuitt, Heyward, Dupree, Hargrave, and Watt, that will happen. Pittsburgh's offense is slipping as their D emerges - opposite of Houston's situation.



     
  39. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    I knocked Carl Lawson's grade for his injuries as much as I possibly could, and still had him #16 overall.

    He last 100 picks later and was selected at #116 overall.

    Now you tell me if he's playing like a 4th rounder or a kid that should've been taken top 20. Kid's a beast.
     
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  40. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    He's been the best pass rusher of the class to date (Garrett only playing one game). His strength and balance through contact/impact really stand out, and, though I was higher on him than the NFL, I definitely should have been much higher on him. I've been a little frustrated with Cincinnati's usage of Willis. In the games I've watched, they used him primarily as a base DE, who leaves the field for obvious passing situations.
     

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