Ja'Wuan James

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by DKphin, Apr 28, 2014.

  1. DKphin

    DKphin A True Fan Donator

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    There has been alot of talk about James recently and I have my reservations. His up and down performance reminds me of John Jerry. Aguy with alot of ability, but someone you can not count on to give optimum effort on every down and that scares me.
    http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFL-Prospect-Focus-Tennessee-Offense.html
     
  2. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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    There is some truth to what he's saying, but it's overstated. Greg Gabriel is meh.. There is a reason why he's working for nationalfootballpost.com and not still with the Bears....................


    I have James as the #24 overall prospect. He will be a top 8-10 right tackle.
     
  3. Roman529

    Roman529 Moon Runner / The 3 AM Crew

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    I just listened to an interview that WINZ did with James and I was very impressed with what he had to say. He was very polite, articulate and he thanked the Dolphin's staff for the time they took to meet with him and get to know him. He seems like a high character guy and hard worker. He's from the Atlanta area and said he had good thoughts about the Phins. I can't say I have watched James play, but he seems like a guy who would be a nice fit.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 29, 2014
  4. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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    Team Captain. And started 49 games in the SEC.. usually I don't like overstating the SEC, but there are some grown men who play in the trenches in the SEC..
     
  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    He's going to check out 10 out of 10 off the field as far as his character is concerned.

    I've had my eye on the guy for years.

    http://www.finheaven.com/showthread...eniors&p=1064583006&viewfull=1-post1064583006

    Going back to the 2012 tape and evaluating guys like Dallas Thomas, Zach Fulton, Antonio Richardson and JaWuan James it was always clear to me which of the four players had the brightest pro future.

    He's big at 6'6" and usually runs in the 320 lbs range during the season I think. He's one of those naturally big guys too, has an 82 inch (6'10") wing span. Unusual agility for the kind of player.

    I wish I'd gotten more chance to see him against the likes of Jadaveon Clowney. I'll have to settle for the likes of Devin Taylor, Jarvis Jones, Cornelius Washington, Dee Ford, Michael Sam and Dante Fowler. Most of those guys he absolutely shut down. Some of like like Devin Taylor, Dee Ford and Michael Sam looked borderline undraftable in the games they played against JaWuan James.

    He's not unbeatable. Markus Golden (whom I've got tabbed for watching closely for 2015) got him on a nice speed to power move, sacked the quarterback. I think Ronald Powell was able to cut inside of him one time though he didn't even end up hurrying the quarterback if I'm not mistaken. Dante Fowler got a sack but it wasn't exactly a fair fight as the play saw James down blocking initially before having to redirect back out to try and pick up Fowler who had blitzed from a linebacker position.

    There's an added benefit with James that if for some reason you don't end up liking him at tackle he could still perhaps move inside to right guard and be viable. It's a chance, a projection, but what is on the tape that makes you think the projection worthwhile is enough to offer a little added slice of value onto JaWuan James draft stock. He has the makings of being a versatile player.

    Right tackle is not a well understood position when it comes to the normal conventions of evaluation, in my opinion. If you were to regress PFF grades against draft position you will find that the correlation between draft position and grades is only half as strong among right tackles as it is left tackles. What does that mean? It means when it comes to a right tackle a guy drafted in the 6th round way too commonly outplays the guy drafted in the 3rd round...which means the NFL isn't getting it right. Left tackle is much more orderly.

    This is the primary reason a right tackle is not considered a position you should be drafting high. It's not because the position itself lacks value. Try telling your coach the position lacks value when you just lost because Tyson Clabo couldn't come even close to blocking Mario Williams during a critical portion of the game. There's too much chaos to noise in the evaluation and so the 6th and 7th rounders often outperform the 2nd and 3rd rounders. That's the reason it's considered to be a position you don't need to draft in the 1st round. If the NFL actually were getting it right on the right tackles, and the talents were being sorted into a more orderly fashion, suddenly you'd need to draft one early to get one.

    Knowing the conventions aren't getting it right, my gut tells me to reduce things down to basics. I want guys I've seen playing there. Guys I've seen play in a lot of games. Guys I've seen play talented players. Guys that have the standard physical measurements (i.e. fit the prototype). This is why if I have an immediate need at right tackle, to hell if I'll draft a Zack Martin and roll the dice that way. I want guys I've seen do it multiple years like Jake Matthews, Morgan Moses or JaWuan James.

    Would I take JaWuan James at 19? Ultimately I intend to do better than filling immediate needs. But then, I wouldn't have walked into the draft NEEDING to think about forcing a JaWuan James pick, either. Ideally you want to have viable options at every position before the draft so that you're free to pick the best value.

    If you truly believe Ryan Tannehill is a star in the making, that he and Mike Wallace are going to get their chemistry and that this team is on the right track...I think absolutely you go ahead and fill your immediate need with guys like Morgan Moses or JaWuan James at 19 overall. You do that because allowing a HOLE in the roster to persist can prevent your star players from being star players. One of the most commonly cited rules of roster building is that you don't have to be great or even good everywhere, but you can't be bad anywhere.
     
  6. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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    I have Ja'Wuan in the late 1st, and you did a great job breaking him down. Such a great scheme fit for Miami. The problem is that you have to force 2 OL in the first 3 rounds now. I wouldn't have done that myself, so I agree with you on that 100% You never want to draft for need, but when your franchise QB got sacked 58 times, you fill that damn need any means possible. Don't want a David Carr 2.0 on your hands.

    IMO the best 5 RT's are (order doesn't matter) Sebastian Vollmer, Phil Loadholt, Gosder Cherilus, Andre Smith, and Anthony Davis. (Coincidently 4/5 were free agents last year.. but with 50 M$ Ireland settled for Tyson Clabo.. but I digress)

    Vollmer was taken #58 in 2009
    Loadholt was taken #54 in 2009
    Cherilus was taken #17 in 2008
    Smith was taken #6 in 2009
    Davis was taken #11 in 2010

    So going by that trend, if you want a really good one, take him in first 2 rounds. Of the 5 I would say James compares most to Cherilus.
     
  7. Hayden Fox

    Hayden Fox Love Creating Turnovers Donator

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    Articulated tremendously

    ---------- Post added at 08:19 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:18 PM ----------

    Miami can still sign a FA guard. Why don't hey have to draft a guard in the first three rounds?
     
  8. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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    Davin Joseph is still out there.. not a long term answer at guard but can be a bridge starter for a year.. forgot he was still out there
     
  9. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I think the "who's the best" question at right tackle may be a bit loaded. It's a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. Part of the reason those guys are considered the best is BECAUSE they were taken high. And so it's no wonder when you stack them up it looks like a trend that they were all taken high.

    Meanwhile guys like Demar Dotson (UDFA) and Zach Strief (7th round) are playing as good or better than many of those guys. They're not as well regarded, and a big part of the reason is their draft position. Doug Free (4th round) and Tyler Polumbus (UDFA) also performed just as well as any of those guys. Joe Barksdale (3rd round) and LaAdrian Waddle (UDFA) also performed very well.

    For years, until he got old and tried to switch teams and systems, Tyson Clabo (UDFA) was among the best performing RTs in the NFL. So were Eric Winston (3rd round) and David Stewart (4th round). Austin Howard (UDFA) collected a big paycheck in free agency this year as well.

    Using statistical tools and trends to take lessons about roster management and football in general is an underrated avenue of exploration...however if it's a tool you're going to use, you have to have a firm grounding in it in order to make sure you're not running afoul of statistical traps.
     
  10. BlueFin

    BlueFin Seer of Visions Finheaven VIP

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    I would rather trade up from 50 than reach at 19 and waste a shot at an explosive playmaker for the offense.
     
  11. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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    Most of the guys you listed were drafted (or signed as college free agents) when fullbacks were still alive. Dotson and Waddle are exceptions to that. You could make the same argument that because Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson were picked in the 6th, 2nd, and 3rd round respectively that you can find elite quarterbacks outside of the first round. Or just because Arian Foster went undrafted, you shouldn't take Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch in the first round. The RT position is definitely on the rise in the league. It's a good point though. I don't think there is any arguing the 5 I listed are in the top 10. Also, I think Austin Howard and Joe Barksdale are "JAGs" and not up to par with the others you listed despite what PFF says. DJ Fluker was looking good at RT. Lane Johnson played really good as well, especially towards the end of the season. There will always be exceptions to every rule, but that doesn't mean you should change the rule. I think if you are looking for a good right tackle, you should now look in the first 2 rounds. It's a passing league, and that's the way the trend is going now.

    But you made an excellent point in your last paragraph. For whatever reason my messaging was turned off on here but I'm going to change that. I've been working on some stuff in regards to that. I'll shoot you a message in the next couple days with some stuff I've been working on.
     
  12. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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    I just wanted to add, you made a great point about draft status and the way players are perceived. Especially when it comes to offensive lineman, the higher they are drafted, the better the casual fan thinks they are. That's not always the true, but I don't think you can deny that Vollmer, Loadholt, Cherilus, Smith, and Davis are among the best top 10 right tackles.
     
  13. jim1

    jim1 Pro Bowler

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    Interesting and thought provoking theory, but there's no shortage of bust 1st rd LTs over the years, for the Fins that would go back to Daryl Carlton and the immortal Billy Milner, not to mention the plethora of 2-4th rd busts we've had on the OL in general. James might indeed be a solid RT candidate for us, but at #19? No way, not for me. All things being equal I'd take the superior talent and athlete Martin and plug him into the right side, but the question is value and the opportunity cost of spending the 19 pick on an OL. I keep going back to one player in particular in that regard, Brandin Cooks.

    I don't see any reason that martin couldn't flourish on the right side, and from what I've seen he's simply a better football player than James, from strength at the LOS to quickness and overall athletic ability. James is a good, solid football player, but what I see is a solid but not great pass blocker and a solid but not great run blocker- a guy that you'd be happy getting in the 3rd round, maybe you reach for him at #50 if you go WR in the 1st rd. But #19? No, jmo.

    Anyway, here's an interesting piece about the evolution of the OT position and how it's been aproached around the league:

    http://mmqb.si.com/2013/10/30/nfl-offensive-tackles-rethinking-the-blind-side-and-position-value/
     
  14. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    If it's the case that Right Tackle is more of a lottery than LT in the draft, my theory on that is that too many guys who play on the right side are second- or third-tier college left tackles. This idea that you stash the guy on the right side until your incumbent LT gets cut sounds great but as often as not give you very patchy production on the right side. I don't believe it's as easy to play either side as people make out. Both from a physical and technique point of view there are subtle and not so subtle differences.

    You'd be better picking a top RT for the right who might have some LT potential (and Ja'Wuan James is exactly that, imo), than a decent LT straight out of college who not only has to ascend the pro playing curve but has to do it as a square peg.

    I've been posting about James since during the college season, but I would void my dinner if we took him at #19. I would rather we took ANY kind of tradedown offer than burn a 19 on him.
     
  15. Hayden Fox

    Hayden Fox Love Creating Turnovers Donator

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    My response is simple…I just do not think Martin is there at 19.
     
  16. jim1

    jim1 Pro Bowler

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    That could very well be, because he's that good. His looks deceive, in terms of athletic builds he's somewhat in in the John Kruk mode, but that dude can play. I would also take Koundjio over James, provided that his knee did in fact check out, and not think twice about it. People talk about the Dolphins liking Koundjio at #19 as smoke, I'm wondering the same about James. Good player, but I just do not see a first round pick there.
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    This is exactly what I'm talking about though. Anyone that truly understands the statistics would know not to make that argument. But a person who doesn't really have a grounding in them and isn't aware of their limitations especially in either scientific or financial settings...may end up making that kind of argument. But they'd be doing so a bit blindly, IMO.

    Which would be more examples of the incorrect application of statistics, and most likely would be made by someone who doesn't really have a good background and understanding of their uses and the limitations associated with things like sample size and confirmation bias.

    I listed Howard mostly because he was actually getting play on the market and received a pretty good contract for a right tackle. He signed a 5 year, $30 million contract.

    I'm not sure what you're arguing, as it relates to what I was saying...Are you disagreeing? Or agreeing?

    Interesting. I'd love to hear if you have any background in this stuff. I firmly believe that successful integration of analytics into the scouting process will help bring scouting success rates to a new level (which would be reflected in better league-wide correlations between draft position and player performance).
     
  18. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    This is a great post.

    The only thing I would add is while it may appear that RT is a gaping hole I believe hickey sees some, if not all of the guys still on the market as viable options, so even though McKinnie isn't officially signed as a Dolphin I would guess Hickey has told his agent to speak with us before he inks any deal (not saying it has to be McKinnie just using his name as an example). It might be wishful thinking but if I'm right I love the way he's handled pre-draft free agency.
     
  19. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I have to warn you though...much of the reason the NFL has likely resisted the heavy integration of analytics into the process is because as soon as they get a real statistics expert in the office that person is more likely to spend his days saying "no" than saying "yes". A person with a firm grounding in statistics would tend to lament the insufficient sample sizes and lack of statistical significance involved in any study involving football-related data sets. Some of the stuff you're asking about (e.g. 'recent trends') strikes me as more likely to fall into traps than to be meaningful, most often due to insufficient sample size. I think once you get beyond that barrier if a statistics guy really begins to understand the sport and the drivers of success then perhaps he can start to figure out more valuable things that analytics actually can offer the sport instead of just pointing out the endless list of things it can't.

    Just my point of view on the matter. I work in equities research, was an econ major in college. I don't have what I would deem a professionally strong statistics or math background (which to me would entail a graduate degree or at least undergraduate degree in math or stats), but I do have some background there and understanding of them.
     
  21. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    I think you're more likely to get mostly "inconclusives" rather than "no's." I've seen very few analytics that are powerful enough to give firm answers one way or the other and if you're are going to use them they should be used as a starting point rather than the deciding factor.
     
  22. Roman529

    Roman529 Moon Runner / The 3 AM Crew

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    I think James would likely still be around after #19 but before we pick again at #50.....so if the top guys are off the board at #19, maybe try to trade down and get James a little later and another quality guy before we pick again at #50. I still think there is a decent possibility that Lewan or Zack Martin drops down to us.
     
  23. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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    I literally had to re-read this post twice :lol: shows my mathematical knowledge and understanding..

    I agree that sample size is a limiting factor in this. That's why this should be taken with a grain of salt. Not an "end all be all" kind of thing. Rather, a way to look at things. How can you look at recent trends that have a small sample size? Not a rhetorical question. I believe things like recent trends should be something to look at and try and draw conclusions from. At most, it would be a very small piece of the pie. For example the trend of Right Tackles. I think it's safe to say that the position is trending, and good ones are going higher now than, say in 2004.

    I'm not a statistics or analytics guy trying to apply football knowledge I barely understand. I'm a football guy trying to apply statistics or analytics I barely understand.

    I'm not trying to come up with a money ball scenario or formula. Just look at trends and the way successful teams are doing things, and what conclusions can be drawn from it. But I would rely heavily on my football knowledge when doing this. Not some "holy grail formula"
     
  24. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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    This is your best post I've seen. I think they should be used as a starting point to look at way things are being done. For example, trying to find strange correlation between crazy statistics and how much they equate how much a QB is responsible for wins by using YPA is beyond ridiculous.


    Anything shouright/gravity has posted is rubbish

    However, stats like the correlation beween turnover differential and winning is a valid one.

    I've found the deeper you dive into formulas, the farther away you get from football, and the less weight it will hold with football people.

    Simple stats like 3rd down % redzone % and turnovers and how they relate to winning are good places to start. A lot easier to measure.
     

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