Luck is no sure thing. For that matter neither way Manning or Ryan or any of these guys. QB is impossible to judge, because the position and development of the player is so reliant on a confluence of a series of disparate events. I don't care how smart of physically gifted a QB is......he can't do it on his own.
That guy up in Philadelphia seems to be doing alright for himself. His neighbor in Pittsburgh doesn't seem to be too shabby either. Does he need to win 3 super bowls before you'd consider him to have panned out? Rodgers? Bledsoe? If you want to play the self proclaimed message board draft guru at least put a little thought into it.
I thought about Bledsoe almost immediately after I posted, but really didn't feel like it was relevant to bring him up.... as he was the ONLY underclassmen quarterback that ever panned out into what could be considered franchise caliber until Roethlisberger came along in 2004.... and even Big Ben was a redshirt Junior when he entered the draft. He still had a year of eligibility left, but he was a Senior in preparation. Redshirts still practice, attend meetings, study film, and receive coaching during their redshirt season.
There were 16 underclassmen quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round from 1990-2007. Only 3 of them by my count turned out to be franchise caliber quarterbacks (Bledsoe, Big Ben, and Aaron Rodgers). Rodgers sat on the bench for 3 years behind a Hall of Famer in Brett Favre before he even took a snap.
I don't consider Michael Vick franchise caliber material... it only took him 10 years to get to where he's a functional passer. He was always the lowest rated quarterback in the league in Atlanta every year from inside the pocket. His success is also largely dependent on Andy Reid, who could turn
you into a legitimate starting caliber quarterback. Mike Vick would be absolutely lost if he were most anywhere else.
Rex Grossman and Trent Dilfer are the only other 2 during that time period that turned out to be serviceable journeyman type quarterbacks.
Basically, what you have from 1990-2007 is 3 out of 16 underclassmen quarterbacks that turned out to be franchise caliber (Bledsoe, Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers).... that's roughly an 18% chance of happening. You had 2 more that turned out to be serviceable journeyman types, and another that took 10 years to learn how to play the quarterback position (Trent Dilfer, Rex Grossman, and Mike Vick)... that's roughly an 18% chance of happening.
The other 10 were flat out busts and disasters of epic proportions.... that's a bust rate of roughly 63%.
Now, where it gets interesting is from 2004-2010. In that time period, there were 9 underclassmen quarterbacks selected in the 1st round.
Big Ben and Aaron Rodgers already have superbowl rings, and are legitimate franchise quarterbacks. Throw in Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, and Sam Bradford, and the early returns are looking rather promising for all these quarterbacks. I don't think any of them would be considered anything even resembling a bust.
Alex Smith, Jamarcus Russell, and Vince Young are the 3 that are considered for the most part, busts.
What you have in this time frame with underclassmen QB's is virtually the exact opposite of what you had in the previous 15 years or so. You have 6 of the 9 that are already well on their way to having outstanding careers..... that's roughly a 67% success rate.
3 of the 9 would be considered busts..... that's roughly a 33% bust rate.
The reason for this in my opinion is simple. It's easier to play quarterback in the NFL nowdays than it was 10, 15, 20 years ago... the rules have made it that way. You can't hardly touch the quarterback anymore, and receivers are allowed to run free, unlike years past. However, the spike in success rate with these underclassmen QB's is also attributed the spread concepts that have found their way into the NFL, directly coinciding with the time period that these QB's entered the league.
More quarterbacks are putting up 100+ QB ratings now than EVER before. More QB's are throwing for 300+ yards a game now than ever before. More young quarterbacks (doesn't matter if they're underclassmen or Seniors) are experiencing success in the league now than ever before. The bust rate for QB's is declining dramatically.... even for the 2nd round-mid round "system" QB's like Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kevin Kolb, Matt Shaub, etc.... that would be selling furniture had they tried to play quarterback in the NFL 15-20 years ago.
Quarterbacks are in the shotgun 60-70% of the time in the NFL now, as opposed to 25% of time at the most like it used to be. College quarterbacks that come from these spread systems and play their entire college careers in the shotgun without ever having to take a snap from under center isn't as big of deal as it was 15-20 years ago. The game has changed to aid these quarterbacks and give them a MUCH better shot at sticking around.
It's never been
less risky to draft a quarterback in the 1st round than it is right now. Combine that with the rookie wage scale and it makes it even less risky than that because the commitment from a monetary standpoint isn't as crippling. It's also never been more important to
HAVE a franchise quarterback than it is right now.
When you take all this into consideration, it's no wonder that teams are tripping over themselves to draft questionable QB prospects in the 1st round now. It's a quarterback league.
Andrew Luck is as "sure of a thing" at the quarterback position as I've seen... right up there with Manning and Matt Ryan. If you can't play quarterback in the NFL nowdays and have success, something is terribly wrong... either with you or your coaching staff.
