Most Important Stat | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Most Important Stat

BahamaFinFan78

BahamaFinFan78

Active Roster
Joined
Jul 18, 2010
Messages
7,563
Reaction score
7,719
Using traditional stats only (stats on a box score or back of a football card), what one stat do you think is the most important for evaluating talent?
For QB's: Comp %, Wins, Yards, TD to Int Ratio?
RB's: Yards, YPC, TD's?
WR and TE: See above
I know you can't fully evaluate based on one stat, but if you had to pick one and only one to look at, which one would you turn to?
 
QB- Comp. %
RB- Yards per Carry
WR- TD's/Yards (close call)
TE- TD's
 
I think YAC is always a great tool for evaluating WR's/RB's. What a player does with the ball in his hands after being touched says alot about his abilities.
 
I think that it's a mistake to only look at a QB's performance with a single statistic, but I'd take completion %. Using a single statistic in this way is like just looking at the temperature to judge the weather. It may be 82 degrees outside but there's a category 3 hurricane. In this case the temperature doesn't adequately tell the weather.
There is nothing wrong with looking at multiple statistics to measure the QB performance.
 
3rdandinches said:
Wins
Click to expand...


Re-sign
J.Long 9mil
R.Bush 5mil
B.Hartline 3mil
S.Smith 5mil

FA Signings
WR G.Jennings 9mil
TE J.Cook 4mil
DE M.Johnson 7mil
CB Q.Jammer 5mil
CB D.Cox 7mil

54 million plus 6 million for the draft brings your scenario to $60 million
you still need to sign 2 QBs (2 million at least)since Tanny is the only one signed for next season

you need to resign or replace almost 20 more players
even at $15 million for the group your pushing $77 million

Now you're over what we'll have available(aprox $48 million) by 30 million at a minimum
plus the xtra money needed to make deals during the season for acorns

Fasano
Clemons
Starks
Amaya
Culver
Barker
Brown
Feinga
Murtha
Garner
Freeny
Mastrud
McCann
McDaniel
Marlon Moore
Spitler
Stanford
Thigpen

Signing that many free agents from other teams is just not realistic


 
BahamaFinFan78 said:
Using traditional stats only (stats on a box score or back of a football card), what one stat do you think is the most important for evaluating talent?
For QB's: Comp %, Wins, Yards, TD to Int Ratio?
RB's: Yards, YPC, TD's?
WR and TE: See above
I know you can't fully evaluate based on one stat, but if you had to pick one and only one to look at, which one would you turn to?
Click to expand...

QB's: TD to int ratio
RB's: YPC
WR/TE: TD's

Wins are too hard to just pin on the QB. Comp % is too easy to manipulate with short passes (4yd pass on 3rd and 8).
 
miamiron said:
Re-sign
J.Long 9mil
R.Bush 5mil
B.Hartline 3mil
S.Smith 5mil

FA Signings
WR G.Jennings 9mil
TE J.Cook 4mil
DE M.Johnson 7mil
CB Q.Jammer 5mil
CB D.Cox 7mil

54 million plus 6 million for the draft brings your scenario to $60 million
you still need to sign 2 QBs (2 million at least)since Tanny is the only one signed for next season

you need to resign or replace almost 20 more players
even at $15 million for the group your pushing $77 million

Now you're over what we'll have available(aprox $48 million) by 30 million at a minimum
plus the xtra money needed to make deals during the season for acorns

Fasano
Clemons
Starks
Amaya
Culver
Barker
Brown
Feinga
Murtha
Garner
Freeny
Mastrud
McCann
McDaniel
Marlon Moore
Spitler
Stanford
Thigpen

Signing that many free agents from other teams is just not realistic
Click to expand...

I've also shown you that cutting certain players saves another 14 mil, we will be adding 9 draft picks plus UDFA which will be getting minimums so we do not need to re-sign your entire list. There's a reason why my re-sign list doesn't have Fasano, Clemons, Starks etc....I'm not re-signing them!
 
Teamwise, Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential is my favorite. It's the so-called Killer Stat developed by the late Bud Goode. The new arrogant jerks like Aaron Schatz try to denounce it but for betting purposes I can tell you YPPA Differential is far superior to anything they have come up with. I've run countless Monte Carlo simulations. I think I mentioned about a month ago that Carolina was the most underrated team in the league. They had a very good YPPA Differential but a poor record. The Panthers logically rebounded to the mean by winning and covering their last four games.

Passer Rating Differential is another one. I remain more loyal to YPPA Differential simply because I've used it longer and know more about it. Last year the guys who tout Passer Rating Differential at coldhardfootballfacts.com got extremely ****y and basically announced that the Giants had no chance against the Packers, or in the playoffs period. I emailed them to be careful. This is a strange era. The regular season results still adhere to the old statistical and situational trends but the playoffs are more flimsy. Frankly, the results are weird and often unexplainable. I'm glad my simple system still works, taking any team with at least a half yard edge in YPPA Differential over its opponent. I have all four favorites this week -- Green Bay, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore. The Packers have the largest edge while Houston barely qualifies as exactly a half yard above the Bengals.

BTW, New England is surprisingly poor in the differential stats this year. In fact, barely above average.

Yards Per Attempt is the long term standard for quarterbacks. It will never lead you too far astray. The teams that gave big money and extended contracts to Sanchez and Fitzpatrick obviously didn't pay attention. Very infrequently there's a puzzling example like Tony Romo. He's in the top 6 or 8 all time in yards per attempt but obviously his results in big games don't align with that. When you hears fans belittle Romo but coaches and league analysts praise him or allow benefit of a doubt, it's because the NFL types are very much aware of Romo's excellence in getting the ball downfield.
 
Yards per attempt and not yards per completion? So where does our QB rate on that list?
 
BahamaFinFan78 said:
Yards per attempt and not yards per completion? So where does our QB rate on that list?
Click to expand...

Yards per attempt, b/c it factors in the completion percentage. If you only count yards per completion, you could be 10-30 for 200 and say your 20 ypc was great! But actually, the QB play was awful. Now if you use those same stats but look at ypa, it's only 6.7 while a guy who was 16-22 for 180 has a ypa of 8.2 (a ypc of only 11.25). That QB was much more efficient per play with the ball in his hand. He probably kept the sticks moving though.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom