Most Important Stat

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by BahamaFinFan78, Jan 1, 2013.

  1. BahamaFinFan78

    BahamaFinFan78 A True Fan

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    Using traditional stats only (stats on a box score or back of a football card), what one stat do you think is the most important for evaluating talent?
    For QB's: Comp %, Wins, Yards, TD to Int Ratio?
    RB's: Yards, YPC, TD's?
    WR and TE: See above
    I know you can't fully evaluate based on one stat, but if you had to pick one and only one to look at, which one would you turn to?
     
  2. dolfan2909

    dolfan2909 Well-Known Member

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    QB- Comp. %
    RB- Yards per Carry
    WR- TD's/Yards (close call)
    TE- TD's
     
  3. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 The D will RushYa, Like Moscow Donator

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    I think YAC is always a great tool for evaluating WR's/RB's. What a player does with the ball in his hands after being touched says alot about his abilities.
     
  4. spiketex

    spiketex Kiko Alonso - El Bravo 47 the yappy chihuahua Super Donator Donator

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    I think that it's a mistake to only look at a QB's performance with a single statistic, but I'd take completion %. Using a single statistic in this way is like just looking at the temperature to judge the weather. It may be 82 degrees outside but there's a category 3 hurricane. In this case the temperature doesn't adequately tell the weather.
    There is nothing wrong with looking at multiple statistics to measure the QB performance.
     
  5. 3rdandinches

    3rdandinches Seasoned Veteran

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  6. Mudder1310

    Mudder1310 A True Fan

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    QB - yards per attempt
     
  7. miamiron

    miamiron A True Fan

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    Re-sign
    J.Long 9mil
    R.Bush 5mil
    B.Hartline 3mil
    S.Smith 5mil

    FA Signings
    WR G.Jennings 9mil
    TE J.Cook 4mil
    DE M.Johnson 7mil
    CB Q.Jammer 5mil
    CB D.Cox 7mil

    54 million plus 6 million for the draft brings your scenario to $60 million
    you still need to sign 2 QBs (2 million at least)since Tanny is the only one signed for next season

    you need to resign or replace almost 20 more players
    even at $15 million for the group your pushing $77 million

    Now you're over what we'll have available(aprox $48 million) by 30 million at a minimum
    plus the xtra money needed to make deals during the season for acorns

    Fasano
    Clemons
    Starks
    Amaya
    Culver
    Barker
    Brown
    Feinga
    Murtha
    Garner
    Freeny
    Mastrud
    McCann
    McDaniel
    Marlon Moore
    Spitler
    Stanford
    Thigpen

    Signing that many free agents from other teams is just not realistic


     
  8. Marino420TD

    Marino420TD Seasoned Veteran

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    QB's: TD to int ratio
    RB's: YPC
    WR/TE: TD's

    Wins are too hard to just pin on the QB. Comp % is too easy to manipulate with short passes (4yd pass on 3rd and 8).
     
  9. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I think I'd go with this. It's silly to boil a player down to a single statistic, but I think these probably tell the story the best.
     
  10. 3rdandinches

    3rdandinches Seasoned Veteran

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    I've also shown you that cutting certain players saves another 14 mil, we will be adding 9 draft picks plus UDFA which will be getting minimums so we do not need to re-sign your entire list. There's a reason why my re-sign list doesn't have Fasano, Clemons, Starks etc....I'm not re-signing them!
     
  11. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    Teamwise, Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential is my favorite. It's the so-called Killer Stat developed by the late Bud Goode. The new arrogant jerks like Aaron Schatz try to denounce it but for betting purposes I can tell you YPPA Differential is far superior to anything they have come up with. I've run countless Monte Carlo simulations. I think I mentioned about a month ago that Carolina was the most underrated team in the league. They had a very good YPPA Differential but a poor record. The Panthers logically rebounded to the mean by winning and covering their last four games.

    Passer Rating Differential is another one. I remain more loyal to YPPA Differential simply because I've used it longer and know more about it. Last year the guys who tout Passer Rating Differential at coldhardfootballfacts.com got extremely cocky and basically announced that the Giants had no chance against the Packers, or in the playoffs period. I emailed them to be careful. This is a strange era. The regular season results still adhere to the old statistical and situational trends but the playoffs are more flimsy. Frankly, the results are weird and often unexplainable. I'm glad my simple system still works, taking any team with at least a half yard edge in YPPA Differential over its opponent. I have all four favorites this week -- Green Bay, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore. The Packers have the largest edge while Houston barely qualifies as exactly a half yard above the Bengals.

    BTW, New England is surprisingly poor in the differential stats this year. In fact, barely above average.

    Yards Per Attempt is the long term standard for quarterbacks. It will never lead you too far astray. The teams that gave big money and extended contracts to Sanchez and Fitzpatrick obviously didn't pay attention. Very infrequently there's a puzzling example like Tony Romo. He's in the top 6 or 8 all time in yards per attempt but obviously his results in big games don't align with that. When you hears fans belittle Romo but coaches and league analysts praise him or allow benefit of a doubt, it's because the NFL types are very much aware of Romo's excellence in getting the ball downfield.
     
  12. PSU Cane

    PSU Cane Starter

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    This.

    I could care less about a guy who completed 70% in those dink and dunk spread offenses we see in college. I'd rather have a guy who completed 60% but has twice the yards per attempt.
     
  13. BahamaFinFan78

    BahamaFinFan78 A True Fan

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    Yards per attempt and not yards per completion? So where does our QB rate on that list?
     
  14. BG12DM13CP10

    BG12DM13CP10 Well-Known Member

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    1. Completion %
    2. Wins
     
  15. PSU Cane

    PSU Cane Starter

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    Yards per attempt, b/c it factors in the completion percentage. If you only count yards per completion, you could be 10-30 for 200 and say your 20 ypc was great! But actually, the QB play was awful. Now if you use those same stats but look at ypa, it's only 6.7 while a guy who was 16-22 for 180 has a ypa of 8.2 (a ypc of only 11.25). That QB was much more efficient per play with the ball in his hand. He probably kept the sticks moving though.
     
  16. BahamaFinFan78

    BahamaFinFan78 A True Fan

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  17. gofins60

    gofins60 A True Fan

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    Sounds good to me. IMO, yardage is important for RBs, since the majority of rushing plays are short gains. For every other position, TDs are all that matters. Numbers such as passing yards and receiving yards mean nothing in the long run (although making 1st downs may be the most important stat). Games are won by scoring more points than your opponent (duh!), and yardage doesn't equal points. Gaining yards is only for getting in position to score points; it does no good to have 500 yards of offense and only 10 points!

    I will say that yardage is important for kickoff and punt returns.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 2, 2013
  18. KTOWNFINFAN

    KTOWNFINFAN Seasoned Veteran

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    What their mother does for a living...
     
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  19. Dthrill_08

    Dthrill_08 A True Fan

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    So you would pick Tebow lol?????
     
  20. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    6.8 is not bad for a rookie. Not bad at all. Rookies who are forced to start all season often end up at high 5s to mid 6s.

    It was a balanced year in yards per attempt. Nobody had a phenomenal year but there weren't many poor ones. The caliber of rookies contributed to that.
     
  21. sharp

    sharp Scout Team

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    eye test
     
  22. z926538

    z926538 Rookie

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    Do you know if anyone has done a Principle Component Analysis run on these various stats to verify the strength of each? Any published attempts to combine them using Bayesian classifiers or Genetic Programming?
     

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