A perfect 4-0.
I've mentioned it several times in the Dolphin forum, including last Sunday night, but it warrants notice here:
* Bet against any NFL team that played on Monday night last week, if this week's game is on the road versus a non-division opponent
That's it. Very simple to isolate and a longterm winner. I study situational and statistical trends via Excel and this is one of the most reliable and sensible. In a league as balanced as this one you can't afford to sacrifice a day and a half of preparation and rest, especially if you are forced to travel and the opponent is one you are not familiar with. This basic system had a monumental run in the '90s, something like 27-6 at one point. It does not avalanche anymore because the numbskull NFL execs cut the divisions from 5 teams to 4, meaning you can't routinely throw away non-division games as frequently.
These are the winners so far:
* Seattle (basically pick'em) 21-18 over Atlanta
* Minnesota (-3.5) 33-16 over New Orleans
* San Francisco (+6.5) losing 34-31 to Dallas
* San Diego (-5.5) 45-23 over the Giants
That was one sweet day today, 3-0. You'll probably never see that again because the system should allow only two plays per week max. But the league decision to place the Giants/Saints game on Monday last week turned into a bonanza, since both teams played away vs. non-division this week. I can't believe Tagliabue and the league were so ignorant/cruel to New Orleans. It was bad enough switching the Giants game last week to a home game, but why Monday night? That essentially condemned New Orleans to another loss today at Minnesota. Why couldn't the Giants/Saints game have been played on Saturday night?
Anyone who has access to first half lines should look at this system carefully. It generally works much better in the first half than the game itself. The halftime margins can be astounding, and that has been the case for years. The teams in this negative scheduling situation come out amazingly flat. Look at this year: Seattle led 21-0 over Atlanta at half, Minnesota was ahead of New Orleans 24-0 at half, and San Francisco led Dallas big, 24-12. The 49ers lost in the final minute of the game after leading throughout. I had a brutal beat in the first half tonight. The Chargers led New York 21-3 in the middle of the 2nd quarter before a calamity of errors. New York kicked a last second FG to cut the margin to 21-20 at half, blowing my -3 in the first half. In this case that just ticked me off and I bet more on San Diego in the 2nd half.
Of course, now that this angle has been posted here, I've probably jinxed it short term. Gamblers tend to overreact. If you lose the next two, just make sure you realize you're supposed to bet every one and let the percentages eventually work in your favor.
I've mentioned it several times in the Dolphin forum, including last Sunday night, but it warrants notice here:
* Bet against any NFL team that played on Monday night last week, if this week's game is on the road versus a non-division opponent
That's it. Very simple to isolate and a longterm winner. I study situational and statistical trends via Excel and this is one of the most reliable and sensible. In a league as balanced as this one you can't afford to sacrifice a day and a half of preparation and rest, especially if you are forced to travel and the opponent is one you are not familiar with. This basic system had a monumental run in the '90s, something like 27-6 at one point. It does not avalanche anymore because the numbskull NFL execs cut the divisions from 5 teams to 4, meaning you can't routinely throw away non-division games as frequently.
These are the winners so far:
* Seattle (basically pick'em) 21-18 over Atlanta
* Minnesota (-3.5) 33-16 over New Orleans
* San Francisco (+6.5) losing 34-31 to Dallas
* San Diego (-5.5) 45-23 over the Giants
That was one sweet day today, 3-0. You'll probably never see that again because the system should allow only two plays per week max. But the league decision to place the Giants/Saints game on Monday last week turned into a bonanza, since both teams played away vs. non-division this week. I can't believe Tagliabue and the league were so ignorant/cruel to New Orleans. It was bad enough switching the Giants game last week to a home game, but why Monday night? That essentially condemned New Orleans to another loss today at Minnesota. Why couldn't the Giants/Saints game have been played on Saturday night?
Anyone who has access to first half lines should look at this system carefully. It generally works much better in the first half than the game itself. The halftime margins can be astounding, and that has been the case for years. The teams in this negative scheduling situation come out amazingly flat. Look at this year: Seattle led 21-0 over Atlanta at half, Minnesota was ahead of New Orleans 24-0 at half, and San Francisco led Dallas big, 24-12. The 49ers lost in the final minute of the game after leading throughout. I had a brutal beat in the first half tonight. The Chargers led New York 21-3 in the middle of the 2nd quarter before a calamity of errors. New York kicked a last second FG to cut the margin to 21-20 at half, blowing my -3 in the first half. In this case that just ticked me off and I bet more on San Diego in the 2nd half.
Of course, now that this angle has been posted here, I've probably jinxed it short term. Gamblers tend to overreact. If you lose the next two, just make sure you realize you're supposed to bet every one and let the percentages eventually work in your favor.