Conuficus
The look on Tom Brady's face: Pricless
I wrote this a long time ago; before last year's draft and I thought I'd repost this so people can have a more informed view of what a BP influenced regime has done in the draft before.
This was done for the Cowboys, Jets and Pats IIRC.
Now, obviously this is not an absolute thing, but it does provide some information people may find useful. There is another part to this that was written first, I'm sure people can find it by looking under my name etc. I believe it was done about 2-3 weeks before the draft.
[FONT="]I’m just kicking stones here, but I was looking at my write up of Parcells’ Drafting History (1993 – 2006), and it occurred to me that the numbers could be extended to give an even more informed view of what Parcells might be thinking. In this case, I think it would be worthwhile for me to examine what Parcells was doing in his previous drafts. I like tendencies, simply because everyone has them. No matter who you are you all have routines, and paradigms of daily operation. You go the same way to work most mornings, you drink the same coffee etc. Now, people will say those are habits, and they are. However within those habits are tendencies; does a person drink coffee in the morning or the afternoon is an example. How about does that same person drink more on the first Tuesday of every month because of a monthly budget meeting? I find tendencies fun because you can rely on them. Over time these tendencies are so normal they are almost instinctual, tenets of existence. Or, as we say about old people sometimes: “They are set in their ways”. Married people usually can have an idea of what their spouse will say or do in certain instances before they happen. It’s also what leads to monotony, if left completely unfettered. [/FONT]
[FONT="]In football, coach’s tendencies are like pots of gold. Find one that no one else has seen in your next opponent; you are God for the week. Coaches are taught to find, examine and exploit their opponents’ tendencies to the point where he dies by his own hand. That is tactical football. I’m doing that with this draft I think, or at least in my convoluted mind it seems that way. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, or that is what insane men have said when they hold their failed attempts at destiny in their hands. Sorry, got a little side tracked……………[/FONT]
[FONT="]For this installment of the Conuficus mind trip we will look at what Parcells’ did in each round. What did he do with his first round picks over his coaching career? A simple question like this was at the heart of my first examination, and hopefully it is here. In this examination I will mainly stay to the overall picture, as dealing with each team has been done before. Also in such an instance examination of the previous regime’s actions should be done. What I’m really looking for here is what Parcells does round by round, are there any tendencies he has regardless of team. I have shown Parcells’ versatility and adaptability in my previous examination, or at least I think I did. Well, now that you know what I’m trying to do, let’s get into it.[/FONT]
[FONT="]This will be laid out as 5 of 10 total picks……….5/10 = 50% (same as before)[/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 1: 10 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]2/10 on offense = 20%.......................8/10 on defense = 80%[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 QB – 1/10 = 10% .....1 ILB – 1/10 = 10%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 WR – 1/10 = 10% ......4 OLB – 4/10 = 40% (half of all picks in total 5/10)[/FONT]
[FONT="] 2 CB – 2/10 = 20%[/FONT]
[FONT="] 1 DE – 1/10 = 10%[/FONT]
[FONT="]As you can see Parcells favors both one side and one position above all else here. Such an overwhelming majority does not happen by chance over this period. In this round OLB and CB’s would be the most highly valued by the numbers presented.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 2: 13 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]8/13 on offense = 61.5%.....................5/13 on defense = 38.5%[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 WR – 2/13 = 15.37% ......1 DE – 1/13 = 7.68%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 TE – 1/13 = 7.68% .......1 DT – 1/13 = 7.68%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 RB – 1/13 = 7.68% .......2 ILB – 2/13 = 15.37%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 OT – 2/13 = 15.37% .......1 SS – 1/13 = 7.68%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 G – 1/13 = 7.68%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 C – 1/13 = 7.68% [/FONT]
[FONT="]Here we can see that Parcells begins to equalize his preferences by favoring the offense more. Here the trend seems to be that if it an offensive player it will be either an O-lineman (30.74% overall when positions are combined), or WR. If there is a defensive player taken, the D-line and ILB take preference over all other positions. However, the O-line is an overwhelming favorite here. Now before everyone clamors for Cherilus at #32,………the highest O-line was ever taken was #38 – C, Al Johnson, otherwise if one was taken it was done in the 50+ range. #57 might be the more likely choice for an O-lineman here. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 3: 12 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]6/12 on offense = 50%.......................6/12 on defense = 50%[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 WR – 1/12 = 8.33% .......1 DT – 1/12 = 8.33%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 TE – 1/12 = 8.33% ......1 DE – 1/12 = 8.33%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 RB – 1/12 = 8.33% .....1 ILB – 1/12 = 8.33%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 G – 2/12 = 16.66% .....2 CB – 2/12 = 16.66%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 C – 1/12 = 8.33% .......1 FS – 1/12 = 8.33%[/FONT]
[FONT="]In this round Parcells is right down the middle, which is interesting. To me it shows that he might be looking for value, or to try and fill a need here. In the two previous rounds, I think he shows a serious disposition to a premeditated plan. I think the O-line as a whole is the way he goes offensively (25% if you combine the interior lineman, which in itself is a tendency). On the defensive side it appears he might look to fill out the defensive backfield as a group. On the whole it should be pointed out that Parcells doesn’t draft many safeties period. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 4: 16 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]8/16 on offense = 50%.......................8/16 on defense = 50%[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 WR – 2/16 = 12.5% 2 .......DT – 2/16 = 12.5%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 TE – 1/16 = 6.25% 3 ......DE – 3/16 = 18.75%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 RB – 2/16 = 12.5% .......1 LB – 1/16 = 6.25%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 OT – 1/16 = 6.25% .......1 CB – 1/16 = 6.25%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 G – 1/16 = 6.25% .......1 SS – 1/16 = 6.25%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 C – 1/16 = 6.25%[/FONT]
[FONT="]In this round Parcells goes right down the middle again in terms of offense defense, although further examination shows glaring tendencies here. On the offensive side of the ball Parcells will look to add some skill help, either WR, or RB,…..but skill guys will get the looks here. On the defensive side we can see Parcells really like to get some D-linemen, and in particular DE’s. It is interesting that most “big” DE’s that don’t possess great pass rushing skills, or speed off the edge fall to round 3-4, aka “the middle rounds”. And, here we are ready to grab them up. It is also telling that OLB is valued so highly, yet the D-linemen who tie up the O-linemen are left until here to be found. Is Glenn Dorsey reading this?……………..Sorry Glenn. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 5: 13 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]7/13 on offense = 54%.......................4/13 on defense = 30.84%.....2/13 on ST = 15.42[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]3 TE – 3/13 = 23.13% .......1 DT – 1/13 = 7.71%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 OT – 1/13 = 7.71% ....... 1 LB – 1/13 = 7.71% [/FONT]
[FONT="]3 G – 3/13 = 23.13% ........1 CB – 1/13 = 7.71%[/FONT]
[FONT="] 1 FS – 1/13 = 7.71%[/FONT]
[FONT="]In this round it appears that Parcells again favors the offense here, although special teams enter in as the anomaly usually present somewhere in a numerical analysis. Paging “The One”,………sorry wrong musing. If the pick is for the offense Parcells will either take an interior lineman or TE. On the defensive side he will spread the picks out throughout the defense.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 6: 18 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]11/18 on offense = 61%......................7/18 on defense = 39%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 QB – 1/18 = 5.55% .........2 DT – 2/18 = 11.10% [/FONT]
[FONT="]3 WR – 3/18 = 16.65% .......1 DE – 1/18 = 5.55%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 TE – 1/18 = 5.55% ........1 LB – 1/18 = 5.55% [/FONT]
[FONT="]2 OT – 2/18 = 11.10% ........3 CB – 3/18 = 16.65%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 G – 1/18 = 5.55%[/FONT]
[FONT="]3 RB – 3/18 = 16.65% [/FONT]
[FONT="]Well do I have to say it,…..he like the offense once again. However, he will look to get a WR, RB and then O-lineman again. On the defensive side he appears to be after D-lineman and CB’s. I am really noticing that Parcells not matter what will take lineman, no matter which side of the ball it is. He likes to build the interior of his football team. Such Mantra is built on the old school style of football. It is amazing however that so many teams neglect it over the long haul, whilst teams like the Eagles constantly draft lineman and they remain competitive over the long haul. Can anyone name a Eagle WR other than TO over the last 8 years,…..I struggling after Reggie Brown.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 7:15 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]9/15 on offense = 60%.......................6/15 on defense = 40%[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 QB – 1/15 = 6.66% ........1 DT – 1/15 = 6.66%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 WR – 1/15 = 6.66% ........1 DE – 1/15 = 6.66%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 TE – 2/15 = 13.32% .......1 LB – 1/15 = 6.66%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 OT – 2/15 = 13.32% ........3 CB – 3/15 = 19.98%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 G – 1/15 = 6.66%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 C – 2/15 = 13.32%[/FONT]
[FONT="]Again Parcells favors the offense, and really tries to grab O-lineman here. 33% of the total picks are O-lineman. He’s trying to get guys he sees with potential, that he can mold here. It is interesting that he does it here. I almost think BP does this here to stop his FA prospects from getting snatched up by others. No competition here. On defense he will look for a diamond in the rough for the defensive backfield, and again, not many safeties.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In my previous post that I attached earlier in the text I had this: (more after this Mock, keep reading)!!!!![/FONT]
This was done for the Cowboys, Jets and Pats IIRC.
Now, obviously this is not an absolute thing, but it does provide some information people may find useful. There is another part to this that was written first, I'm sure people can find it by looking under my name etc. I believe it was done about 2-3 weeks before the draft.
[FONT="]I’m just kicking stones here, but I was looking at my write up of Parcells’ Drafting History (1993 – 2006), and it occurred to me that the numbers could be extended to give an even more informed view of what Parcells might be thinking. In this case, I think it would be worthwhile for me to examine what Parcells was doing in his previous drafts. I like tendencies, simply because everyone has them. No matter who you are you all have routines, and paradigms of daily operation. You go the same way to work most mornings, you drink the same coffee etc. Now, people will say those are habits, and they are. However within those habits are tendencies; does a person drink coffee in the morning or the afternoon is an example. How about does that same person drink more on the first Tuesday of every month because of a monthly budget meeting? I find tendencies fun because you can rely on them. Over time these tendencies are so normal they are almost instinctual, tenets of existence. Or, as we say about old people sometimes: “They are set in their ways”. Married people usually can have an idea of what their spouse will say or do in certain instances before they happen. It’s also what leads to monotony, if left completely unfettered. [/FONT]
[FONT="]In football, coach’s tendencies are like pots of gold. Find one that no one else has seen in your next opponent; you are God for the week. Coaches are taught to find, examine and exploit their opponents’ tendencies to the point where he dies by his own hand. That is tactical football. I’m doing that with this draft I think, or at least in my convoluted mind it seems that way. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, or that is what insane men have said when they hold their failed attempts at destiny in their hands. Sorry, got a little side tracked……………[/FONT]
[FONT="]For this installment of the Conuficus mind trip we will look at what Parcells’ did in each round. What did he do with his first round picks over his coaching career? A simple question like this was at the heart of my first examination, and hopefully it is here. In this examination I will mainly stay to the overall picture, as dealing with each team has been done before. Also in such an instance examination of the previous regime’s actions should be done. What I’m really looking for here is what Parcells does round by round, are there any tendencies he has regardless of team. I have shown Parcells’ versatility and adaptability in my previous examination, or at least I think I did. Well, now that you know what I’m trying to do, let’s get into it.[/FONT]
[FONT="]This will be laid out as 5 of 10 total picks……….5/10 = 50% (same as before)[/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 1: 10 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]2/10 on offense = 20%.......................8/10 on defense = 80%[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 QB – 1/10 = 10% .....1 ILB – 1/10 = 10%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 WR – 1/10 = 10% ......4 OLB – 4/10 = 40% (half of all picks in total 5/10)[/FONT]
[FONT="] 2 CB – 2/10 = 20%[/FONT]
[FONT="] 1 DE – 1/10 = 10%[/FONT]
[FONT="]As you can see Parcells favors both one side and one position above all else here. Such an overwhelming majority does not happen by chance over this period. In this round OLB and CB’s would be the most highly valued by the numbers presented.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 2: 13 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]8/13 on offense = 61.5%.....................5/13 on defense = 38.5%[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 WR – 2/13 = 15.37% ......1 DE – 1/13 = 7.68%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 TE – 1/13 = 7.68% .......1 DT – 1/13 = 7.68%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 RB – 1/13 = 7.68% .......2 ILB – 2/13 = 15.37%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 OT – 2/13 = 15.37% .......1 SS – 1/13 = 7.68%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 G – 1/13 = 7.68%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 C – 1/13 = 7.68% [/FONT]
[FONT="]Here we can see that Parcells begins to equalize his preferences by favoring the offense more. Here the trend seems to be that if it an offensive player it will be either an O-lineman (30.74% overall when positions are combined), or WR. If there is a defensive player taken, the D-line and ILB take preference over all other positions. However, the O-line is an overwhelming favorite here. Now before everyone clamors for Cherilus at #32,………the highest O-line was ever taken was #38 – C, Al Johnson, otherwise if one was taken it was done in the 50+ range. #57 might be the more likely choice for an O-lineman here. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 3: 12 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]6/12 on offense = 50%.......................6/12 on defense = 50%[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 WR – 1/12 = 8.33% .......1 DT – 1/12 = 8.33%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 TE – 1/12 = 8.33% ......1 DE – 1/12 = 8.33%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 RB – 1/12 = 8.33% .....1 ILB – 1/12 = 8.33%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 G – 2/12 = 16.66% .....2 CB – 2/12 = 16.66%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 C – 1/12 = 8.33% .......1 FS – 1/12 = 8.33%[/FONT]
[FONT="]In this round Parcells is right down the middle, which is interesting. To me it shows that he might be looking for value, or to try and fill a need here. In the two previous rounds, I think he shows a serious disposition to a premeditated plan. I think the O-line as a whole is the way he goes offensively (25% if you combine the interior lineman, which in itself is a tendency). On the defensive side it appears he might look to fill out the defensive backfield as a group. On the whole it should be pointed out that Parcells doesn’t draft many safeties period. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 4: 16 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]8/16 on offense = 50%.......................8/16 on defense = 50%[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 WR – 2/16 = 12.5% 2 .......DT – 2/16 = 12.5%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 TE – 1/16 = 6.25% 3 ......DE – 3/16 = 18.75%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 RB – 2/16 = 12.5% .......1 LB – 1/16 = 6.25%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 OT – 1/16 = 6.25% .......1 CB – 1/16 = 6.25%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 G – 1/16 = 6.25% .......1 SS – 1/16 = 6.25%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 C – 1/16 = 6.25%[/FONT]
[FONT="]In this round Parcells goes right down the middle again in terms of offense defense, although further examination shows glaring tendencies here. On the offensive side of the ball Parcells will look to add some skill help, either WR, or RB,…..but skill guys will get the looks here. On the defensive side we can see Parcells really like to get some D-linemen, and in particular DE’s. It is interesting that most “big” DE’s that don’t possess great pass rushing skills, or speed off the edge fall to round 3-4, aka “the middle rounds”. And, here we are ready to grab them up. It is also telling that OLB is valued so highly, yet the D-linemen who tie up the O-linemen are left until here to be found. Is Glenn Dorsey reading this?……………..Sorry Glenn. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 5: 13 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]7/13 on offense = 54%.......................4/13 on defense = 30.84%.....2/13 on ST = 15.42[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]3 TE – 3/13 = 23.13% .......1 DT – 1/13 = 7.71%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 OT – 1/13 = 7.71% ....... 1 LB – 1/13 = 7.71% [/FONT]
[FONT="]3 G – 3/13 = 23.13% ........1 CB – 1/13 = 7.71%[/FONT]
[FONT="] 1 FS – 1/13 = 7.71%[/FONT]
[FONT="]In this round it appears that Parcells again favors the offense here, although special teams enter in as the anomaly usually present somewhere in a numerical analysis. Paging “The One”,………sorry wrong musing. If the pick is for the offense Parcells will either take an interior lineman or TE. On the defensive side he will spread the picks out throughout the defense.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 6: 18 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]11/18 on offense = 61%......................7/18 on defense = 39%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 QB – 1/18 = 5.55% .........2 DT – 2/18 = 11.10% [/FONT]
[FONT="]3 WR – 3/18 = 16.65% .......1 DE – 1/18 = 5.55%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 TE – 1/18 = 5.55% ........1 LB – 1/18 = 5.55% [/FONT]
[FONT="]2 OT – 2/18 = 11.10% ........3 CB – 3/18 = 16.65%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 G – 1/18 = 5.55%[/FONT]
[FONT="]3 RB – 3/18 = 16.65% [/FONT]
[FONT="]Well do I have to say it,…..he like the offense once again. However, he will look to get a WR, RB and then O-lineman again. On the defensive side he appears to be after D-lineman and CB’s. I am really noticing that Parcells not matter what will take lineman, no matter which side of the ball it is. He likes to build the interior of his football team. Such Mantra is built on the old school style of football. It is amazing however that so many teams neglect it over the long haul, whilst teams like the Eagles constantly draft lineman and they remain competitive over the long haul. Can anyone name a Eagle WR other than TO over the last 8 years,…..I struggling after Reggie Brown.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Round 7:15 total picks[/FONT]
[FONT="]9/15 on offense = 60%.......................6/15 on defense = 40%[/FONT]
[FONT="]By position:[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 QB – 1/15 = 6.66% ........1 DT – 1/15 = 6.66%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 WR – 1/15 = 6.66% ........1 DE – 1/15 = 6.66%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 TE – 2/15 = 13.32% .......1 LB – 1/15 = 6.66%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 OT – 2/15 = 13.32% ........3 CB – 3/15 = 19.98%[/FONT]
[FONT="]1 G – 1/15 = 6.66%[/FONT]
[FONT="]2 C – 2/15 = 13.32%[/FONT]
[FONT="]Again Parcells favors the offense, and really tries to grab O-lineman here. 33% of the total picks are O-lineman. He’s trying to get guys he sees with potential, that he can mold here. It is interesting that he does it here. I almost think BP does this here to stop his FA prospects from getting snatched up by others. No competition here. On defense he will look for a diamond in the rough for the defensive backfield, and again, not many safeties.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In my previous post that I attached earlier in the text I had this: (more after this Mock, keep reading)!!!!![/FONT]
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