Predictions of record in AFC | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Predictions of record in AFC

JB1089 said:
You're the "Official Jest Hater," so it's hard to take anything you say about them seriously.

Our O/U is 10, we're -170 to make the playoffs. That's not saying we're a lock. %-wise, that's saying there's a 60-65% chance we make the playoffs. This is the NFL we're talking about. We're behind NE (11.5) and Pittsburgh and Baltimore (10.5); and are even with San Diego (also 10). The Chargers are -285 to make the playoffs, better odds than Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and New York; and only slightly behind the Pats (who are -300). Who else is going to win that division? The Chiefs were a fluke, Oakland and Denver are bad. This is where you're having a problem. You see the Jets in the same light as the Chiefs.

The Dolphins O/U is at 7.5, and your playoff odds are +400 (20%). I think that's about right for Miami this year. You're not a terrible team, or even a bad one. The Dolphins fall into the category "not good enough." Henne has been "not good enough." Your defense is very good, but not great. The Ravens have had an elite defense for a decade, but over the last 11 years, have averaged 9.4 wins per season. It's hard to win 10 games, and even a great defense isn't going to get you there most of the time. Especially not when you play in a stacked division, which the Dolphins do.

When you break it down, the hierarchy in the AFC currently has the Patriots and Steelers on top, with the Colts, Ravens, Jets, and Chargers on the next tier, followed by teams like Kansas City and your Dolphins. You may not put the Jets on that 2nd tier, but there really isn't an argument to be made at the moment. A 1 point loss to Baltimore, 2 wins over the Patriots, 1 terrible loss to the Patriots, a win in Pittsburgh, a loss in Pittsburgh, a loss at Chicago, a win at Indy. The Jets only bad loss last year was to the Dolphins.

There are still a few Dolphin fans clinging to the hope that the Jets really aren't as good as they seem to be. It's one thing to have one team that is clearly better than you in the division, it's another to have two. It makes the goal of making the playoffs seem far off (Think about how Bengals and Browns fans must feel, the Bengals only got in 2 years ago because the Steelers had a rare off year). I think that ends this year. The Jets have built a solid organization from top to bottom over the last few years. There is no impending "cap hell" to deal with (in fact, all the deals the Jets gave out seem better with each new contract that's signed), the GM has shown an ability to repeatedly go out and acquire talent, and Rex Ryan has established himself as one of the best coaches in the league. As long as Ryan is the coach, the Jets defense will be near the top of the league. The last piece is Sanchez. If he doesn't progress, the Jets become the post-Super Bowl Ravens. If he does, they're a Super Bowl contender for a decade. Critics say he's been carried by the running game and the defense, and compare him to guys like Trent Dilfer and Rex Grossman. They say that the coaching staff doesn't entirely trust him. That may have been true his rookie year, but not last year. None of the guys they compare him to were asked to throw the ball 34 times per game in their 2nd season, and none of them performed in the playoffs the way Sanchez has.

If you want to find reasons to be down on the Jets, you can do so. Just don't pretend that the Jets don't have a very high ceiling. If Sanchez shows moderate progression, the Jets are a 12-13 win team (not accounting for injuries). It's that simple. If he gets worse then they're at 6-8 wins (defense won't allow them to be worse than that). If he's the same, they're at 9-10 wins.
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tsk tsk tsk 9 wins at best **** Vegas
 
The Jets will NEVER win 12 games! Seriously??

We are poised to go 10-6 this year realistically. Jets will not win more than 9 (if that)......and preseason or not the Lions DEMOLISHED Brady and the Pats which I believe set a tone with our division that he/they are NOT invincible. Pats wont win 12-13 games.

Pats 11-5
Dolphins 10-6
Jets 8-8
Bills 5-11
 
pats- 12-4
dolphins -11-5- wildcard
jets- 7-9
bills- 5-11

ravens-12-4
steelers-10-6- wildcard
browns-6-10
bengals-2-14

colts- 11-5 ( all depends on manning obviously)
texans-9-7
jaguars- 7-9
titans- 6-10

chargers- 12-4
chiefs- 10-6
raiders- 7-9
broncos-4-12
 
Patriots - 11-5
Dolphins - 9-7
Jets - 9-7 (Don't think Sanchez gets bailed out by dropped INTs and no Braylon catching errant throws this year. Also think older, slower plaxico and mason are downgrade from edwards/cotchery. New kickoff rule could hurt them and the Bears the most)
Bills - 6-10

Think the standings will be very close in the AFC though, could be decided week 17 again like 2009 and 2002. Maybe three AFC East teams go. Jets, Dolphins, Texans, Jaguars, Chiefs, Ravens, Colts, Steelers could all be in a fight that goes down to the wire. (If it did, what a week 17 game between Phins/Jets.) NFL is unpredictable though, especially wild card, watch the Broncos take a big step or something. In NFC Lions could get a wild card.
 
Sanchez only "appeared" to progress last year because of the dropped int's.. give him even half of those and he is benched mid-season last year and the Jets finish 8-8 at best and are looking for a new QB this year. So you can expect Sanchez to "appear" to regress this year simply by the other team actually catching some of the balls he throws them. Look at the game last night.. he was terrible all night.. given great field position over and over then throws one nice pass and he's the hero again.
Jets 8-8 at best this year.
 
JB1089 said:
The whole division plays the same schedule, except for 2 games.

Jets: Jacksonville and Baltimore
Pats: Indy and Pittsburgh
Phins: Houston and Cleveland
Bills: Tennessee and Cincinnati

edit: And you guys get San Diego and Kansas City (Arrowhead) on the road, we get them at home. You get Dallas and the Giants on the road, we have Philly and Washington. The Dolphins schedule may even be slightly more difficult than the Jets. It's certainly no easier.
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No, the Jets and Patriots will have the tougher games. Miami playing Texans and Browns is easier then having to play {Jags, Ravens} & {Colts, Steelers}. Don't know about you, but having to play the Eagles away alone is much tougher then the Cowboys or the Chiefs.
 
Pats 10-6
Jets 9-7
Bills 8-8
Fins 4-12

I have a bad feeling about this year.
 
tay0365 said:
No, the Jets and Patriots will have the tougher games. Miami playing Texans and Browns is easier then having to play {Jags, Ravens} & {Colts, Steelers}. Don't know about you, but having to play the Eagles away alone is much tougher then the Cowboys or the Chiefs.
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@KC is about as difficult game as @Philly. The homefield advantage makes up for the disparity in talent.

Over the last 5 years, Philly is 6 games over .500 at home, and 5 games over on the road. They don't have much of a "homefield advantage."

Arrowhead Stadium is a hellhole, arguably the best homefield advantage in the NFL. Last year, KC was 3-5 on the road, but 7-1 at home. They were abysmal for a few years, but throughout Arrowhead's history, if the Chiefs get 7 wins, 5 of them come at home. I think the Chiefs are an 8-8 team this year, that means 5-6 wins at Arrowhead.

The other team with the massive homefield advantage is Seattle, who was 7-9 last year, but 5-3 at home.

Also, don't know if you've noticed, but the Jags are going to be bad this year, and if Gabbert starts that game, there's very little chance that they win.

As far as the Browns go, didn't they beat you last year, in Miami? Also, 9 of the 11 games they lost last year were to teams with winning records. They lost 2 games to below .500 teams, both on the road, by 2 to division rival Cinci, and by 7 to Buffalo (who then beat you the next week, in Miami).
 
Z New England 11-5
Jets 10-6
Miami 9-7
Bills 6-10

Z Pittsburgh 11-5
Y Baltimore 10-6
Cleveland 8-8
Cincinatti 4-12

Z Texans 10-6
Y Indianpolis 10-6
Jax 8-8
Tennessee 5-11

Z San Diego 11-5
Kansas City 8-8
Denver 8-8
Raiders 4-12
 
New England 11-5
NY Jets 10-6
Miami 8-8
Buffalo 7-9

Pittsburgh 10-6
Baltimore 10-6
Cleveland 7-9
Cincinatti 4-12

Texans 10-6
Indianapolis 9-7
Jax 6-10
Tennessee 5-11

San Diego 11-5
Kansas City 8-8
Denver 7-9
Raiders 6-10
 
JB1089 said:
Go put some money on it. Vegas runs on the money of people like you, who think they're smarter than they are.
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no actually Vegas makes their money on their 10% vig. They couldnt care if the Jets won 3 games or 15 games!! As more people bet one way, they shift the odds to get an even amount of bettors on both sides. Ideally, they would like 20 million bet on the under and 20 million bet on the over ensuring them their $2 million profit.
and as for me I am up over $5,000 in Vegas after 3 trips. I'll bet you heads up the Jets dont win more than 10 games! But being you are a Jets fan, you are unlikely trustworthy.
 
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