QB play by quarters chart | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

QB play by quarters chart

fin007 said:
In the chart above, would being forced to sit out in the 4th quarter on a number of occasions skew this number downward for Tua?

Has that fact been accounted for in the chart above?

If that fact hasn’t been accounted for then the chart is flawed and or nonsense.

A good friend regularly says:

There are lies; dammed lies; and then there are statistics. 😂
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No, it's by-play data so sitting out doesn't change anything except lower data count.
 
What has to be factored in here as a confound/covariate is a team's point differential to start the 4th quarter. Any team entering the 4th quarter down big on the scoreboard will be one-dimensional offensively in the effort to mount a comeback through the air, thus allowing the opposing defense to know what's coming and tee off on the offensive line and the QB. And pressure on the QB diminishes the performance of all QBs, without exception. By contrast teams starting the 4th quarter up big on the scoreboard can comfortably run the ball to run out the clock, and passing plays are likely to surprise an opposing defense playing the run and therefore be highly effective.

So this isn't just a measure of "QBs" or "QBs' clutch play," but a measure of team functioning as well, especially offensive scoring ability and defense.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Here's what that means in games. In 11 games with Miami ahead in the start of 4Q, Miami scored 10 TDs. In 6 games with Miami trailing at the start of 4Q, Miami scored 3 TDs. Two were in the TEN game - 7 and 12 yd drives. The 3rd in the Balt game, with Miami having the ball at the start of the 4th at Balt's 17. That's it.
I see a clear correlation. With Miami ahead at the start of the 4th (low stress), the O could score. With Miami behind, (high stress), didn't score ONE TD of over a 17 yd drive. Yes, the D failed at times, but ZERO long drives in all games while trailing? That can't be mostly D - and, no, you didn't say it was.
Even with that data, it gets worse. After the DEN game, Miami scored only 3 TDs in 4Q while LEADING. Leading in 8 games after DEN. 3 TDs. TT's not blameless, but a poor 4Q in 17 games needs addressing.
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Good stuff. McCoach and Tua are the primary guys here that need to figure this out.
 
Yes second half’s were awful all year and that has to do with McDaniel. Teams would adjust and he wouldn’t. He needs to give up playcalling to someone that can adjust and pivot when things start to get picked up on. It’s clear McDaniel just wings it which is why plays are always coming in late however when he has time to script series in the beginning of the game they look like the best offense in the league however he can’t script series during games and at half since he’s focused on coaching the team.
 
Fins1971 said:
View attachment 160374

Just crazy how the offense was so good in the first 3 quarters this year but then bombed in the 4th when it mattered.

Obviously, it wasn't all Tua. Penalties, drops and Defense not being able to finish games put is in some bad spots.

All around failure by the entire team. The thing is this has been going on for as long as I can remember.
They put themselves in position to win some big games and then forget to score point in the 4th quarter.
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A lot of it was also bad playcalling by Fangio and McDaniel.
 
MARINO1384 said:
Yes second half’s were awful all year and that has to do with McDaniel. Teams would adjust and he wouldn’t. He needs to give up playcalling to someone that can adjust and pivot when things start to get picked up on. It’s clear McDaniel just wings it which is why plays are always coming in late however when he has time to script series in the beginning of the game they look like the best offense in the league however he can’t script series during games and at half since he’s focused on coaching the team.
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If I were Ross, I'd tell McDaniel to let someone else call the plays or be fired. There is no reason why Miami should have to wait who knows how long for McDaniel to learn how to do something that every experienced OC who became a Head Coach already knew how to do. IOW, IMO hiring a guy with absolutely no experience as a real Coordinator was a bad idea. He has no clue what to do in most situations; his offense only looks good in the beginning until defenses figure it out. Last year and this year were similar; Miami was one of the top teams early, hung around for a while with a shot at the #1 Seed, and then when the games were really important and they needed wins, they choked.
 
4th quarter offensive EPA/play was -0.08, which is slightly worse than average, but not particularly bad. It mainly looks bad compared to the really high epa's in the first 3 quarters.
 
Mahomes is negative in the 4th quarter according to this chart.
Trash Throw Away GIF by Jomboy Media
 
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