i don't think it's quite as simple as that. some players might be at risk themselves or have family members who are. as you said, the background is important.
It's not simple. Nothing about this year has been simple. But i think most of those kids at-risk or with family at-risk would have opted out at the start like Rousseau did (i think his mother is a nurse).
Kids opting out now appear heavily concentrated on bad teams. It's an easy out excuse. The bowl game thing started it - COVID gave kids an in-season excuse now. That's my point. It's not meaningless post-season. It's in-season now, conference games.
Paris Ford supposedly opted out after getting into an argument with a coach.
Samuel opted out on a horrendous team. His coaching staff/athletic department is doing EVERYTHING in their power to not play another game and embarrass themselves on TV so not sure how much i can blame him. Still looks questionable.
Marshall is having a great season....one he needed after being 2nd fiddle to Jefferson and Chase.....but opts out before Bama. Hmm. You think he would have opted out if he was having an ok season and needed more tape?
Bateman has opted out twice now. I doubt he would have opted out if Minnesota wasn't 2-3 or he had poor stats this season.
Jaycee Horn opted out because his coach was fired.....or maybe that was the excuse because his team is awful.
My point is, these are not meaningless games. How would you feel as a player in that locker room, putting your body on the line each day in practice and in games, only to have that guy you helped make successful, bolt on you during the season? How will these guys react in a pro locker room during bad seasons? What is their work ethic like in the offseason or when things aren't going well? I'm sure when looked into, many kids will come out clean from a work ethic and leadership standpoint with support from their coaches/teammates/etc......but i bet a few don't. And if the opt-outs don't impact draft status, is this going to lead to other kids opting out after their sophomore seasons or part-way through junior season to "prepare for the draft"?