The Dolphins’ Jarvis Landry has some cryptic tweets. Let’s try to make sense of them

[Aqua Shadow]

Juice is much more valuable than Baldwin, and it's not even close. Besides being more than 4 years younger, he's got better hands and is tougher too. Juice just needs to calm down sometimes. Once he learns how to do that, the sky is the limit. Juice still has HoF potential, that ship sailed for Baldwin a long time ago.

Baldwin was the one player I was really thinking about comparing contracts with, since I believed they were about equally valuable to their respective teams.

Baldwin makes that Seattle WR corp click. Without Baldwin that is one sorry position group. I actually consider Baldwin to be a bit more like a #1 than Landry without quite fitting the typical profile. That was my major reason for gravitating towards comparing them. Putting up production like the top dawg without the usual frame or skills. Also Baldwin makes about the amount I would offer Landry to start. It will piss him off but help him to understand where the team sees things.

Alas I decided against it because Baldwin is more like my ideal #2 and Juice and ideal slot. So I figured it’s apples to shish kababs

 

[TannDaMan17]

Baldwin was the one player I was really thinking about comparing contracts with, since I believed they were about equally valuable to their respective teams.

Baldwin makes that Seattle WR corp click. Without Baldwin that is one sorry position group. I actually consider Baldwin to be a bit more like a #1 than Landry without quite fitting the typical profile. That was my major reason for gravitating towards comparing them. Putting up production like the top dawg without the usual frame or skills. Also Baldwin makes about the amount I would offer Landry to start. It will piss him off but help him to understand where the team sees things.

Alas I decided against it because Baldwin is more like my ideal #2 and Juice and ideal slot. So I figured it’s apples to shish kababs

Other than the ridiculous amount of receptions Juice has amassed, his age/durability makes him far more valuable on the open market compared to Baldwin, huge difference. We're talking about a potential hall of famer here with Juice, Baldwin in the grand scheme of things is little more than a JAG at this point of his career. And that's not being biased, by the end of Baldwin's 4th NFL season, he was far behind Juice statistically speaking. That's not my opinion, that's just speaking in plain fact.

 

[Sarnics13]

Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t the argument on FH for not paying him (roughly 6-9 months ago) that he didn’t score enough TDs?

So now that Landry has put up double his previous TD catches for the season, he still doesn’t deserve it. Not saying I’d sign him to a 5/$75mil but I’d go as far as to offer 5/65 as a final offer.

No he doesn't. I get your vantage point on this but the problem is that his increased TD's did nothing for the team. He gained, but the team as a whole scored 13 less times this year compared to last. I get that juice is top notch at his position but his position can't be the sole source of your O and you can't pay that money to your slot. Over 10 is too much to tie up in that position.

You could have the greatest kicker in the league but you still don't pay him 7 million dollars. That position can't warrant that money....... and likewise you don't pay a slot 14.

None of it is his "fault". He's fought hard for this team, but that doesn't earn anyone a contract that doesn't fit the impact to the team and NO slot impacts their team to the tune of 14mil a year. If they do.... your team sucks and you'll be the lowest scoring team in the league and highest in penalties. As in.... The Miami Dolphins.

 

[Aqua Shadow]

I know my last post was a bit of a rambler ( it’s what I’m best at) but I think we are at an agreement TannDaMan. Baldwin contract would just be my argument in the negotiation room to start. Eventually I’d give him closer to that 5/65 range

@Sarnics13:
I understand that line of thinking. I was more or less interested in the change of opinion on FH from one year to the next regarding what needs to be seen from Juice to get that nice new contract.

Your right. It’s hard to justify that kind of money to a slot. I just find it funny how much of the talk last year was what Juice needed to accomplish to earn that money. Now that he did it, it still isn’t enough.

I think part of it is that a lot of people never really expected it to come down to the wire like this, so less was expected contract-wise

 

[Kdawg954]

If you compare Landry to Baldwin, the 14m number makes even more sense.

Baldwin got 4/46 (11.5 AAV) 2 years ago and he was 2 years older than Landry is now.

You take both of those factors and that is easily worth 2 million AAV.

Cap was 155 in 2016 when Baldwin signed and will be 178 this year.

Welcome to free agency. If Miami wanted a discount they could of tried to get this done last year. Fact is they took their discount by having Juice for peanuts in his 4th year and maybe they already know they are willing to pay him 14 in an extension.

Would you all feel better if we redid this deal last offseason and paid him 5/55 instead of this year at 4/56?I got news for you . . . There isn't much of a difference in salary when you add up the 5 years (2017 to 2021) in both situations.

Hopefully there is some realization when you think about it like that.

 

[Danny]

No he doesn't. I get your vantage point on this but the problem is that his increased TD's did nothing for the team. He gained, but the team as a whole scored 13 less times this year compared to last. I get that juice is top notch at his position but his position can't be the sole source of your O and you can't pay that money to your slot. Over 10 is too much to tie up in that position.

You could have the greatest kicker in the league but you still don't pay him 7 million dollars. That position can't warrant that money....... and likewise you don't pay a slot 14.

None of it is his "fault". He's fought hard for this team, but that doesn't earn anyone a contract that doesn't fit the impact to the team and NO slot impacts their team to the tune of 14mil a year. If they do.... your team sucks and you'll be the lowest scoring team in the league and highest in penalties. As in.... The Miami Dolphins.

You're right to a point. There was talk by many here including me that he didn't score a lot of TD's. This year he scored more but I think what happened was that a lot of us noticed that the problem is he doesn't get you chunk yards and fast TD's. He scored most of his TD's from inside the 10. Nothing wrong with that when you just look at the number of TD's......but what you need to understand is that with him being the #1 target you need to drive 12 to 14 plays and hence, we have so many drives that don't end up with a TD or even a F/G. Like is being posted before, he scored more but the TEAM scored less and that's what happens when you run your offense thru a slow slot WR

Ozzy rules!!

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

I'm not sure I'd take Jarvis Landry over Doug Baldwin. Just being honest.

I think the one thing Landry has going for him is his age, and that's it. Baldwin is surprisingly dangerous on vertical stuff outside the hashes. Underrated football player who hasn't put up the big numbers because, unlike Landry, he doesn't get his number called every other pass.

 

[matt11390]

When you ask if the team can "create an offense where their best player is a slot and pay him like one?" The team has been running it's offense thru Landry and it has not worked at all. We've had one of the lowest scoring offense in the NFL with him being the number one target.

When you say the team "needs to look past the position".......that's how we got in a cap mess to start with when we made a DT the highest defensive player in the NFL. The pay structure of super bowl winning teams does not include over paying for DT's and slot WR's. You pay big money for your QB and the guys that can get to the QB. If you over pay for Landry then we'll have a big problem once we have a real number 1 in place.

Like you said, he's have 4 very good seasons and yet the team can't score enough. No it's not his fault but rather, the fault lies with your line of thinking that running an offense thru a slow slot WR would work. It hasn't and it won't and you've had 4 years of it so there's no excuse for anyone not to know. It's right there for everyone to see. A slot WR catching 100 passes will not work when 90 of them are 5 yards or shorter.

Ozzy rules!!

All you say is good stuff. I'm not advocating paying him but I also know that it's not Landry's fault Miami's offense has stunk. He's been basically the only reliable talent on the offense so naturally he's getting a ton of targets. It bothers me with the thought of him leaving because who in the world will our offense throw to if he does? I just don't like letting the teams top players go.

Suh. I've never been a fan of his signing. This isn't a knock on Suh I love him as a player but you can't pay a DT that kind of money. It does have a negative impact on the cap and limits how Miami can build the roster. I would only pay a QB that kind of money.

Honestly, if I was building the roster I would reserve the big money for a franchise QB, LT, DE, and that's it. I would build a strong OL with talented players that don't require top dollar, more middle of the pack kind of money.

I have a feeling Landry will leave and I hate the idea but I get why. I could swallow it a bit easier if they had just traded him and got some decent compensation for him. Now the best they can get is maybe a end of the 3rd round comp pick.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

It bothers me with the thought of him leaving because who in the world will our offense throw to if he does? I just don't like letting the teams top players go.

I think this is the worst argument I've seen for keeping Landry at a high salary. We can throw bubble screens to anybody.

 

[matt11390]

I think this is the worst argument I've seen for keeping Landry at a high salary. We can throw bubble screens to anybody.

I'm not arguing Miami keep Landry just stating the obvious that Landry is the lone play maker on the offense. Drake came on late in the season so there's hope there. If you think Miami could put anyone in the slot for bubble screens you are crazy. You can't deny Landry is a top slot guy. Doesn't mean he's worth top dollar but let's not downplay Landry's value to this offense.

 

[Kdawg954]

I'm not sure I'd take Jarvis Landry over Doug Baldwin. Just being honest.

I think the one thing Landry has going for him is his age, and that's it. Baldwin is surprisingly dangerous on vertical stuff outside the hashes. Underrated football player who hasn't put up the big numbers because, unlike Landry, he doesn't get his number called every other pass.

Baldwin is a great receiver.

I would take Landry over him.

Do not underestimate the situation and rapport he has built up with Russell Wilson as a major part of him truly developing in the NFL. Part of me questions would he be as effective in another situation while I feel pretty comfortable Landry will produce in pretty much any situation.

No question he is a lot smarter than Jarvis.

You can't go wrong with either guy tho.

 

[Adam Strange]

The Landry apologetics have just gotten laughable. So now we need to keep him around because not just anyone can catch all those bubble screens.

So let’s pay a limited receiver 14 million a year so we can keep throwing bubble screens— that’s worked so well. Or we could, you know, not throw so many bubble screens and actually have a potent offense. Crazy, I know.

 

[Danny]

All you say is good stuff. I'm not advocating paying him but I also know that it's not Landry's fault Miami's offense has stunk. He's been basically the only reliable talent on the offense so naturally he's getting a ton of targets. It bothers me with the thought of him leaving because who in the world will our offense throw to if he does? I just don't like letting the teams top players go.

Suh. I've never been a fan of his signing. This isn't a knock on Suh I love him as a player but you can't pay a DT that kind of money. It does have a negative impact on the cap and limits how Miami can build the roster. I would only pay a QB that kind of money.

Honestly, if I was building the roster I would reserve the big money for a franchise QB, LT, DE, and that's it. I would build a strong OL with talented players that don't require top dollar, more middle of the pack kind of money.

I have a feeling Landry will leave and I hate the idea but I get why. I could swallow it a bit easier if they had just traded him and got some decent compensation for him. Now the best they can get is maybe a end of the 3rd round comp pick.

I agree that is not his fault. Like I've said before, the team has done that. I just don't want the team to keep on doing it. I'm all for keeping our players but only to a point and that point is not 14 mill a year for Landry. I don't blame him for wanting that much but I'd blame the FO for giving it to him

Ozzy rules!!

 

[Chuck-182]

You are absolutely right. By no means do we have that kind of eye for WR talent. But, we have done much better in that department lately. Consider, we go Landry when he was overlooked, and when we grabbed Parker he was clearly worth the pick and possibly the most talented WR in that draft ... but his injury issues have prevented him from reaching those heights. Then our savvy trade for Stills when he had no market looks quite good. Rarely do WR's move from one team/system to another and maintain the same level of success, so that makes the Stills move far more impressive than most people realize. And for a 6th round pick, Jakeem Grant looks pretty darn good to my eye.

We're getting better at identifying WR talent. OL Talent ... not so much. (Yes, I see Jesse Davis and Eric Smith, but we can't compare their talent level to Landry, Parker, Stills and Grant).

Parker was worth the pick? Are you nuts? I'll agree with your points on Landry and Stills but Parker is a complete bust at this point and I would be surprised if he turns it around.

 

[Kdawg954]

Parker was worth the pick? Are you nuts? I'll agree with your points on Landry and Stills but Parker is a complete bust at this point and I would be surprised if he turns it around.

He was saying he was worth the pick from a prospect, BPA and team need perspective where Miami drafted him.

And I would agree.

Now he will be a bust if he doesn't flourish in 2018, but I still have no issues with that pick. We needed a legit WR talent for your 3rd year QB, we got rid of Wallace/Gibson/Hartline and only had Landry and just traded for Stills and we really didn't know how effective he would be without Brees.