Why the Phins wont and should not draft a QB in the 1st

[SCall13]

Thanks for doing the research but it really is pretty much meaningless. You take the highest rated player at the position you are at in the draft. If Cutler is that highly rated on Saban's board he's taking him and I have no questions about it. If not he won't. You don't draft scared because some other Qb was a bust and you don't pass up legit talent because Brady was a late round pick. You scout the players, rate them as you see them, take them as they are available. Saban and Co. know what they are doing.
You could use a similar formula that you used to justify this post with any position. Look at how many good Rb's that there are taken outside the 1st round, does that mean we should have passed on Ronnie? No, thats idiotic.
The salary stuff is nonsense also, all first rounders make good money, we didnt get a 'non-Qb' discount on Ronnie did we? And once a Qb starts, proves he is good, he gets paid, you can't be cheap about the Qb position.
The Qb position must be upgraded in the offseason, its not optional. If we have Gus starting and a 5th round pick grooming we will be watching the playoffs once again. We have some other holes to fill but guess what? We have caproom and other draft picks, funny aint it?

I agree with this post. IF Saban views Cutler to be the best pick at 16, he takes him. IF he views someone else at a position of need the best pick, he takes him. It's really that simple.

 

[General Tso]

From your research it is now obvious why the Colts have yet to reach the Superbowl. Back in 1998 the Colts foolishly drafted Peyton Manning (first round QB... yuck) instead of going with one of the non-QBs like Andre Wadsworth, Curtis Enis, Grant Wistrom, Kyle Turley, Duane Starks or Greg Ellis.

Back to reality....

Try your research on any other position. Start with RB. You'll find the exact same thing (if not even more skewed towards avoiding that position in the first round).

One reason why: there's been a lot of first round picks over the last 20 years (around 600), but only 11 of the 32 teams have won a Superbowl.

You draft the top rated player on your board, only considering need if you've got 2-3 players graded equally and need serves as a tie breaker. You don't avoid drafting a QB at the top of your board simply because some team hit the jackpot in the 6th round a few years ago.

 

[ckparrothead]

Alright, I did my homework so listen up. I think there is clear evidence here as to why the Phins should not draft a QB at 16 and especially not in the first round.

In the last 15 super bowls, there are been a total of 10 QB's to win the SB
1. Brady (3 '05, '04, '02 w/ NE) 6th RD 2000
2. B. Johnson (TB '03) 9th RD.
3. Trent Dilfer (Balt '01) 6th Pick in 1st round '94
4. K.Warner (Stl '00) Undrafted
5. Elway (2 w/ Den '98,'99) #1 overall in '83 for the Baltimore Colts
6. Favre (GB '97) 2nd round 1991
7. Aikman (3 w/ Dallas '96, '94,'93) 1st overall '91
8. S.Young (SF '95) 1st overall in supplemental for TB
9. M. Rypien (Was '92) 6th RD '86
10. Hoestetler (NYG '91) 3rd Rd '84

In the last 15 SB, only 10 QB's have played and lost
1. Mcnabb (Phi '05) 2nd Pick '99
2. Delhomme (Car '04) undrafted
3. Gannon (Oak '03) 4th rd. '98
4. K. Collins (NY '01) 1st rd. 5th pick '95 by Carolina
5. S.McNair (Tenn '00) 3rd overall '95
6. C.Chandler (ATL '99) 3rd rd. '88
7. Bledsoe (NE '97) 1st overall '93
8. N. O'Donnell (Pitt '96) 3rd Rd '87
9. S. Humphries (SD '95) 6th RD '88
10. J. Kelly (4 w/ Buf '94-91) 14th overall '83

2 QB won a SB and lost a SB
1. Warner lost in '02
2. favre lost in '98

So Looking at past results you have to take the following inferences about the champions:
1. Brady- steal in the late rounds, good drafting plus a little luck because no one knew Brady would be this good, especially so quickly. But NE defense was one of the best if not the best in all of their wins.
2. B. Johnson- 9th Rounder. Top Defense in the league
3. T. Dilfer with Baltimore. Might have been the best defense ever assembled.
Was a first round draft pick but by another team.
4. K. Warner. Undrafted...good defense..prolific offensive system whcih featured future HOF in Faulk as well as a great OL and Holt and Bruce.
5. Elway. Top draft pick by another team. But took him around 15 years to win his first and that was mainly due to emergence of T.Davis and a strong defense.
6. Favre- 2nd rounder...took him 6 years to win
7. Aikman- 1st overall pick...great defense....one of the best OL in history and surrounded by HOF in E.Smith and Irvin and dangerous weapons in Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Moose Johnson (dynasty)
8. S. Young- 1st overall in supplemental draft. Great defense. great offensive weapons.
9. Mark Rypien- 6th RD
10. Hostetler- 3rd rd...took him 6 years to win.

Of the losers:
40% were first round picks- McNair, McNabb, Jim Kelly, Bledsoe
out of 15 SB played- a little under 50% had 1st round QB
1 was 1st overall
1 was second overall
1 was 5th pick
1 was 14th pick overall.

Of the winners:
40% were first round pick- Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer
40% of the total SB were won with 1st round picks
3 were #1 overall, 1 was #6

Here are the first RD QB since '91
'91
16th- Dan McGwire
24th- Todd Marrinovich
'92
6th- Klinger
24th- Tommy Maddox
'93
1st- Bledsoe
2nd-Mirer
'94
3rd- Heath Shuler
6th- trent Dilfer
'95
3rd-McNair
5th. K. Collins
'96
NONE
'97
26th- Jim Drunkenmiller
'98
1st- Peyton Manning
2nd- Ryan Leaf
'99
1st- Tim Couch
2nd-D.McNabb
3rd-A. Smith
11th-D. Culppepper
12th-C. McNown
'00
18th- Pennington
'01
1st-Vick
'02
1st- Carr
3rd- Harrington
32nd- P. Ramsey
'03
1st- Palmer
7th-Leftwhich
17th- Boller
22nd- Grossman
'04
1st- E.manning
4th- P Rivers
11th-Roethlisberger
22nd- Losman
'05
1st- A. Smith
24th- A.Rodgers
25th- J. Campbell

From '91 to 2000 there were 19 QB taken in the 1st RD.
57% of them are no longer in the league
only 2 have won SB, Dilfer with a different team, and K. Collins with a different team.
a total have 5 have played in a SB

Now the number can be skewed in upcoming years if Bledsoe wins with Dallas which is not likley but possible, Collins could but wont, Manning, McNabb and Culpper have the best shot, Obviously givig Manning the best shot since MCNabb and Culpepper coming off injuries, getting older, and dont have great teams to play for.

You cant really judge the 2000 class and above but there is a good chance that Vick, C.Palmer, E.Mannning, Leftwhich and Roethlisberger will at least play in a SB in their career. I would say it unlikley Pennington, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Losman or Boller will be the starting QB on a SB team. To ealry to judge the '05 class, Rivers you cant really tell yet because of his situation, and same with Grossman given his injuries but you always have a chance when your defense is that good.

Now looking at some of the better starting QB in the league today and where they were drafted ( no order):
1 D. Brees 2nd round '01
2. Marc Bulger 6th round '00
3. Aaron brooks (i think he sucks but you gotta list him) 4th '99
4. Hasselback- 6th rd '98
5. Griese- 3rd '98
6. Plummer- 2nd rd. '97
7. T. Green 8th RD '93
8. M Brunell 5th RD '93

Backups likely to start somewhere at sometime (no order)
1. Matt Schaub 3rd '03
2. Chris Simms 3rd '03
3. David Garrard 4th '02

AND THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...........
Dolphins do not select a QB in the first. The percentages are terrible for QB takin in the 1st round and are even worse once you get past the top 5. The most information i took from doing this study was all of the teams that one a SB had great defenses. Especially recently with the NE, TB, and Baltimore D's.
Saint Louis won with a great offensive system whcih Warner fit perfectly into. Elway, Favre and Aikman are HOF but 2 were #1 overall picks. Rypien and Hostetler were late round picks with who played in with good defenses.

If the Dolphins want to win, they need to first sure up the defense and fill in some gaps in the OL. If you honeslty look at the team as a whole. Theh are not far away, but at the same time, our window period right now is getting thin with aging players in JT, Kevin Carter, V.Holliday, and Z. Thomas. On offense we have plenty of young weapons...Mcmichael, Chambers, Booker, R. Brown, Welker, and R. Williams. We have one of the best RB combo's in the league, we have a one of the best receiving TE in the game, and a game-breaking WR in Chambers.

Our greatest needs are OT, DT, OLB and DBs
Why first round wish list goes as follows in no particular order but we must come away one of these players which will most likley happen.
I prefer Defense first:
1. Michael Huff
2. Jimmy Willimas
3. Ngata
4. Chad Greenway
5. DeMeco Ryans
or another top pick who drops (there is always one)

If none are available:
1. Winston Justice
2. Eric Winston
3. Jon Scott

2nd Rd.
1. Gabe Watson
2. AJ Nicholson
3. Kelly Jennings
4. Andrew Whitworth
5. jeremy Trueblood
6. Ryan O'Callaghan
7. Rocky McIntosh
8. Orien Harris
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Derek Hagan

I would love for the fins to trade down and pick up more second round picks since I think there is a lot of value in the second round this year fr our needs.

love to hear some commentary on my homework.

You're a little late to the party. We've seen the argument against drafting a first round QB, now let's see the argument in FAVOR of it...

http://www.billsbuzz.com/billsbuzz/pages/articles/articles2005/05-12-13-myth-buster.htm

(my article for the AFC East Report)

 

[Phishstix]

I agree with this post. IF Saban views Cutler to be the best pick at 16, he takes him. IF he views someone else at a position of need the best pick, he takes him. It's really that simple.

same here, although the dolphins do have to address the qb situation at some point. if cutler is saban's guy, great. if he is not, i'll assume that saban had a good reason why he wasn't.

and wow, i just read that article ck posted. i didn't realize that 1st round qbs had fared so well in terms of super bowl succes.

 

[Mile High Fin]

From your research it is now obvious why the Colts have yet to reach the Superbowl. Back in 1998 the Colts foolishly drafted Peyton Manning (first round QB... yuck) instead of going with one of the non-QBs like Andre Wadsworth, Curtis Enis, Grant Wistrom, Kyle Turley, Duane Starks or Greg Ellis.

Back to reality....

Try your research on any other position. Start with RB. You'll find the exact same thing (if not even more skewed towards avoiding that position in the first round).

One reason why: there's been a lot of first round picks over the last 20 years (around 600), but only 11 of the 32 teams have won a Superbowl.

You draft the top rated player on your board, only considering need if you've got 2-3 players graded equally and need serves as a tie breaker. You don't avoid drafting a QB at the top of your board simply because some team hit the jackpot in the 6th round a few years ago.

:yeahthat:
Everyone read this!
It is correct!

 

[fishypete]

Save the lists....a great defense can beat a great QB....A great QB without talent surrounding him...won't win. A good QB with great talent can win.

Give me a good QB surrounded with great talent and a great defense and I'll show you a winner. Griese....no name defense....Superbowl's.

 

[sports24/7]

Save the lists....a great defense can beat a great QB....A great QB without talent surrounding him...won't win. A good QB with great talent can win.

Give me a good QB surrounded with great talent and a great defense and I'll show you a winner. Griese....no name defense....Superbowl's.

Griese is a HOFer and there is only one defensive player from that team in the hall. So that kind of goes against your point.

But why can't we have a great defense (we already have a great start, just need a few peices that can be picked up after round 1 and in FA), great supporting cast on offense (Chambers, Brown, McMichael) and a great QB (Cutler)? Is there something wrong with that. Would we be negatively affected by bringing in a good QB? That is essentially what this argument is saying.

 

[cowtowndick]

Save the lists....a great defense can beat a great QB....A great QB without talent surrounding him...won't win. A good QB with great talent can win.

Give me a good QB surrounded with great talent and a great defense and I'll show you a winner. Griese....no name defense....Superbowl's.

no disrespect intended (because i agree with almost every post you make) but that was then, this is now. of the four teams left this year, you could argue that only one is there BECAUSE of their defense. delhomme (more accurately smith and delhomme) outplayed the bear defense, hasselbeck outplayed the redskins. this year we had a good qb but the nature of the game, the quality of the defenses, made his performance mediocre at best. qb's need to be more talented than they used to be.

 

[fishypete]

Griese is a HOFer and there is only one defensive player from that team in the hall. So that kind of goes against your point.

But why can't we have a great defense (we already have a great start, just need a few peices that can be picked up after round 1 and in FA), great supporting cast on offense (Chambers, Brown, McMichael) and a great QB (Cutler)? Is there something wrong with that. Would we be negatively affected by bringing in a good QB? That is essentially what this argument is saying.

Griese is a HOF'er because he played in a system that protected him....he won a superbowl and only had to throw 11-12 times the whole game. If not for the defense and running game....the Dolphins wouldn't have won...and that you take to the bank. They didn't get the nickname..."no name" for nothing...and they still to this day aren't getting the respect they are due.

Today we have a few pieces...but are weak at receiver and Tight end...we lose Chambers or McMichael...and it's bare bones time...we need more talent at both positons.

 

[fishypete]

no disrespect intended (because i agree with almost every post you make) but that was then, this is now. of the four teams left this year, you could argue that only one is there BECAUSE of their defense. delhomme (more accurately smith and delhomme) outplayed the bear defense, hasselbeck outplayed the redskins. this year we had a good qb but the nature of the game, the quality of the defenses, made his performance mediocre at best. qb's need to be more talented than they used to be.

If you think about the QB's still playing...three out of the four weren't what one would say was a franchise type QB's...in fact all three moved on to different teams....the only exception is Roethlisberger...and I don't think anyone would say he could carry the Steelers...as Marino or Elway did..when they played on their teams.

Total defense;

Carolina 3rd best

Pittsburgh 4th best

Broncos 15th best

Seattle 17th best

Thats why I'm picking Carolina and Pittsburgh to go to the Superbowl.

 

[rafael]

I hope the days of searching for bargain QBs left with Wanny. Statistically, it is less likely to succeed. Of course, it still comes down to good drafting, but 1st rd QBs have more skills or production than those rated as later rd picks. (duh!) So if you're looking for a guy who will have the nec. NFL skills and be productive on the NFL level, it makes more sense to choose among the more skilled, more productive group than from the lesser skilled, less productive group. (again duh!)

And the money thing isn't an issue either. There isn't a huge difference between 1st rd QB and other 1st rd psitions in terms of pay. Each pick is pretty much slotted. QBs end up at the top of the slot more often, but they're in the same general range. Also, QBs are no less of a sure thing than most other positions. Statistically, they're in the middle (OL are most often successful, while WRs are successful the least often). So if you're going to spend about the same amount of money no matter what position and the QB position is no less likely to succeed than the other positions it makes the most sense to spend the money on the most important position.

That doesn't mean you reach for a QB, but fortunately at 16 we won't be reaching for any of the top 3 QBs. Those posters that are saying that Cutler is a 2nd rd pick are either basing their projections on outdated sources or a just doing a bad job of predicting where Cutler will go. Most experts realize that Cutler is a 1st rd pick right now. My concern is that he'll show too well at the workout(s) and Senior Bowl and that somebody will take him before we can.

 

[cowtowndick]

If you think about the QB's still playing...three out of the four weren't what one would say was a franchise type QB's...in fact all three moved on to different teams....the only exception is Roethlisberger...and I don't think anyone would say he could carry the Steelers...as Marino or Elway did..when they played on their teams.

Total defense;

Carolina 3rd best

Pittsburgh 4th best

Broncos 15th best

Seattle 17th best

Thats why I'm picking Carolina and Pittsburgh to go to the Superbowl.

curious as to where those four teams ranked in total offense - i can't find anything in the regular season. also, of the four remaining teams, 15th and 17th in total defense is great? i'm not sure i necessarily disagree with your picks for the super bowl, but of the four remaining teams, great defenses are not necessarily the common denominator.

 

[sports24/7]

Griese is a HOF'er because he played in a system that protected him....he won a superbowl and only had to throw 11-12 times the whole game. If not for the defense and running game....the Dolphins wouldn't have won...and that you take to the bank. They didn't get the nickname..."no name" for nothing...and they still to this day aren't getting the respect they are due.

Today we have a few pieces...but are weak at receiver and Tight end...we lose Chambers or McMichael...and it's bare bones time...we need more talent at both positons.

Regardless of how many times he had to throw the ball he is still one of the best QBs in NFL history. The point is when he threw the ball he made it count. Obviously we wouldn't have won without the running game and defense, but who is to say we still would have won without great QB play from him and Morall. The point is you try to improve at every position and QB is still the single most important position on the field. If you have the chance to get a great QB you do so.

I disagree that we are weak at WR and TE. At WR we have Chambers who grew this year and should be even better with a QB that doesn't make him dive for the ball every other pass. Booker really came on at the end of the year as well and is a good #2. If he is gone we will need to bring in someone else or draft someone. Wes Welker has proven to be a very clutch 3rd reciever. Are they an elite WR corps? No. But they are far from weak. With some spruceing up they could become a very good corps.

At TE we have one of the top TE's in the league in McMike. Diamond proved to be a nice target in a two TE formation and we still might have something with Holmes and Johnson. How many teams in the league have two very good TE's? Not many. So by having a great TE and a solid TE probably puts us up there in TE duos in the NFL. You could take almost any team and say if they lose their top TE or WR they are in trouble. If Pittburgh lost Ward or Miller they would be in trouble. If the GIants lost Shockey or Burress they would be in trouble. TE is the last of our needs and WR isn't a priority right now either.

 

[djfresh47]

I believe the percentage of Qb's taken after the 1st rd who are successful is very low. If Cutler is the guy Saban wants, then i'm all for it. What I do not wanna see is drafting a Qb in the 5th or 6th rd, then proclaimed the Qb of the "future." It's all relative, and I remember awhile back someone making an arguement that teams don't draft Qb's to be backups, well i'll pull up the Adrian McPherson situation in New Orleans. Alot of people wanted Saban to take him, New Orleans used a 5th rd pick on him, and I doubt he'll ever get an opportunity. Most people have New Orleans taking Leinart in mock drafts, and I think they'll take him, so that 5th rd pick used on McPherson to me is a waste. I think teams should invest a high draft pick in a Qb, because at the very least they'll get an opportunity, while late rd Qb's probably won't.

 

[rafael]

Griese is a HOF'er because he played in a system that protected him....he won a superbowl and only had to throw 11-12 times the whole game. If not for the defense and running game....the Dolphins wouldn't have won...and that you take to the bank. They didn't get the nickname..."no name" for nothing...and they still to this day aren't getting the respect they are due.

Today we have a few pieces...but are weak at receiver and Tight end...we lose Chambers or McMichael...and it's bare bones time...we need more talent at both positons.

You're not suggesting that getting backups at less important positions (wr and TE) is a higher priority than getting a starter at a more important position (QB), are you?