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1st Pick - Roster Driven Evaluation (Long Post)

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FinHopeful

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The implications of this years 1st overall pick on the next 4 years is very interesting. Before looking at the pick, we need to evaluate the current state of our roster. BP and Ireland made progress with the offensive unit. Our wide receiver group for 2007 was one of the worst in the NFL. Note: all of my evaluations are driven by Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. The DVOA for Ernest Wilford in 2007 was 31st. This is considerably better than Chris Chambers, so his addition improves our WR group at a reasonable price. Also, I expect that Ginn and Hagan will continue to improve. The WR group for 2008 will not be completely discounted by the opponents defense like the 2007 group. Clearly, our RB group for 2008 is good. This leaves the offensive line, the QB position, the TE group, and the FB position.

Regan Mauia is good enough to get the job done. Our TE group for 2007 was a big disappointment, and all BP and Ireland have done to improve the group is to add a good blocking TE as a stop gap. The reality is that Josh McCown is capable of being a winning QB with a good supporting cast. It is unclear if John Beck can outperform him, but I give him a 50/50 chance at it. The offensive line is broken. The quality level of the three starting level players on the offensive line are well above average, but there is no one else on the roster that deserves a starting caliber grade. We have to pick up a starting OT and G in the draft or the offensive line will regress from last years horrific performance.

The state of the defense is vastly improved over the starting defense in 2007. In 2007, we did not have a good big man in the middle. The total collapse of our run defense was the result. Jason Ferguson and Randy Starks will make an effective rotation for the 3-4 NT. Here is one legit starting lineup.

RDE Rodrigue Wright
NT Jason Ferguson
LDE Vonnie Holliday
OLB Jason Taylor
ILB Channing Crowder
ILB Reggie Torbor
OLB Joey Porter
CB Will Allen
S Jason Allen
S Y. Bell
CB Mike Lehan

I am sure some of you will disagree with this starting lineup, but I do not care. The point is that there are no missing pieces. There are plenty of opportunities to upgrade, but no holes are there. Finally, we can discuss the implications of each potential 1st pick.

Matt Ryan
The most obvious implication of choosing Matt Ryan is that BP may not be able to fill both the starting OT and starting OG positions that are absent from the roster. One positive is that we will be one year closer to finding a franchise QB if he has that level of ability. Some people believe that Alex Smith, David Carr, and other QBs were broken because they played behind lines that allowed them to be sack 50+ times a season. If Matt Ryan is the first overall pick, he must play by game eight this season. If not, then the Dolphins fans and the Dolphins media will call him a complete bust. The pressure on BP and his staff will be very high. I personally think that the media and most fans are ludicrous to make up their mind that quickly, but this is what will happen. Are we setting both Matt Ryan and the Dolphins to fail if we pick him?

Chris Long
Again, The most obvious implication of choosing Chris Long is that BP may not be able to fill both the starting OT and starting OG positions that are absent from the roster. The short term positive is that Chris Long demonstrated that he has the skills to play OLB, DE, and rush situation DT in a four man front. Is he the next coming of Justin Tuck? He provides depth for both Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. Long term he will take Jason's position when he retires. He provides continuity to the defensive schema and short term value add.

Jake Long
Picking Jake Long nearly guarantees that the offensive line is complete. One of the second round picks can be used to fill the OG position. I not aware of any analyst that believes that Jake Long is not a starting caliber OT. I would expect our line to immediately be in the top 15 in the league if we pick him. The down side is John Beck may never develop to be a starting caliber QB. If not, we will delay the development of a starting caliber QB by at least one year. It is possible to make the playoffs with an average QB when you have a solid defense and an excellent offensive line. It is very difficult to make it to the superbowl with an average QB (only the 2001 Ravens did it). We may not have a replacement for Jason Taylor when he retires if we do not pick Chris Long.
 
Nice Post !

Yea i think Jake Long is gonna be the pick. The guy only let in 2 sacks in 4 years thats pritty impressive:winkwink: Unless Parcells thinks he can snag a Starting OT in the 2nd or 3rd round.
 
I think we have to pick either one of the Longs. and with the 32 pick...we get the opposite of that pick. Take care of DEF depth, or get the very best OL on the board.
 
FinHopeful said:
The implications of this years 1st overall pick on the next 4 years is very interesting. Before looking at the pick, we need to evaluate the current state of our roster. BP and Ireland made progress with the offensive unit. Our wide receiver group for 2007 was one of the worst in the NFL. Note: all of my evaluations are driven by Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. The DVOA for Ernest Wilford in 2007 was 31st. This is considerably better than Chris Chambers, so his addition improves our WR group at a reasonable price. Also, I expect that Ginn and Hagan will continue to improve. The WR group for 2008 will not be completely discounted by the opponents defense like the 2007 group. Clearly, our RB group for 2008 is good. This leaves the offensive line, the QB position, the TE group, and the FB position.

Regan Mauia is good enough to get the job done. Our TE group for 2007 was a big disappointment, and all BP and Ireland have done to improve the group is to add a good blocking TE as a stop gap. The reality is that Josh McCown is capable of being a winning QB with a good supporting cast. It is unclear if John Beck can outperform him, but I give him a 50/50 chance at it. The offensive line is broken. The quality level of the three starting level players on the offensive line are well above average, but there is no one else on the roster that deserves a starting caliber grade. We have to pick up a starting OT and G in the draft or the offensive line will regress from last years horrific performance.

The state of the defense is vastly improved over the starting defense in 2007. In 2007, we did not have a good big man in the middle. The total collapse of our run defense was the result. Jason Ferguson and Randy Starks will make an effective rotation for the 3-4 NT. Here is one legit starting lineup.

RDE Rodrigue Wright
NT Jason Ferguson
LDE Vonnie Holliday
OLB Jason Taylor
ILB Channing Crowder
ILB Reggie Torbor
OLB Joey Porter
CB Will Allen
S Jason Allen
S Y. Bell
CB Mike Lehan

I am sure some of you will disagree with this starting lineup, but I do not care. The point is that there are no missing pieces. There are plenty of opportunities to upgrade, but no holes are there. Finally, we can discuss the implications of each potential 1st pick.

Matt Ryan
The most obvious implication of choosing Matt Ryan is that BP may not be able to fill both the starting OT and starting OG positions that are absent from the roster. One positive is that we will be one year closer to finding a franchise QB if he has that level of ability. Some people believe that Alex Smith, David Carr, and other QBs were broken because they played behind lines that allowed them to be sack 50+ times a season. If Matt Ryan is the first overall pick, he must play by game eight this season. If not, then the Dolphins fans and the Dolphins media will call him a complete bust. The pressure on BP and his staff will be very high. I personally think that the media and most fans are ludicrous to make up their mind that quickly, but this is what will happen. Are we setting both Matt Ryan and the Dolphins to fail if we pick him?

Chris Long
Again, The most obvious implication of choosing Chris Long is that BP may not be able to fill both the starting OT and starting OG positions that are absent from the roster. The short term positive is that Chris Long demonstrated that he has the skills to play OLB, DE, and rush situation DT in a four man front. Is he the next coming of Justin Tuck? He provides depth for both Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. Long term he will take Jason's position when he retires. He provides continuity to the defensive schema and short term value add.

Jake Long
Picking Jake Long nearly guarantees that the offensive line is complete. One of the second round picks can be used to fill the OG position. I not aware of any analyst that believes that Jake Long is not a starting caliber OT. I would expect our line to immediately be in the top 15 in the league if we pick him. The down side is John Beck may never develop to be a starting caliber QB. If not, we will delay the development of a starting caliber QB by at least one year. It is possible to make the playoffs with an average QB when you have a solid defense and an excellent offensive line. It is very difficult to make it to the superbowl with an average QB (only the 2001 Ravens did it). We may not have a replacement for Jason Taylor when he retires if we do not pick Chris Long.
Click to expand...

Great post. The questions you posed are exactly the ones our front office are asking. I think there are two areas you could have explored. Namely the depth of those positions in the draft. For instance, I dont think Guard will be hard to fill in the draft later plus we have Mormino. Bernadeu or Velasco can be had with 4th or later picks. Offensive Tackle is an interesting one. If we get Cherilus to man the right in the 2nd and Valasco in the 4th or 6th would they be good enough to rely upon? OLB is fine this year if we keep JT. If we are dealing him then could a Jermey Thompson step in with a 3rd rounder? How much of a dropoff do the coaches consider there is after Ryan? Is Flacco or Brohm going to last into the 2nd? Can Henne survive the NFL with his poor pocket presence?

Also remember there will always be people we can pick up when the cuts are made in the summer so its not necessary to fill every singe position. Just try to fill as many as you can
 
FinHopeful said:
The implications of this years 1st overall pick on the next 4 years is very interesting. Before looking at the pick, we need to evaluate the current state of our roster. BP and Ireland made progress with the offensive unit. Our wide receiver group for 2007 was one of the worst in the NFL. Note: all of my evaluations are driven by Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. The DVOA for Ernest Wilford in 2007 was 31st. This is considerably better than Chris Chambers, so his addition improves our WR group at a reasonable price. Also, I expect that Ginn and Hagan will continue to improve. The WR group for 2008 will not be completely discounted by the opponents defense like the 2007 group. Clearly, our RB group for 2008 is good. This leaves the offensive line, the QB position, the TE group, and the FB position.

Regan Mauia is good enough to get the job done. Our TE group for 2007 was a big disappointment, and all BP and Ireland have done to improve the group is to add a good blocking TE as a stop gap. The reality is that Josh McCown is capable of being a winning QB with a good supporting cast. It is unclear if John Beck can outperform him, but I give him a 50/50 chance at it. The offensive line is broken. The quality level of the three starting level players on the offensive line are well above average, but there is no one else on the roster that deserves a starting caliber grade. We have to pick up a starting OT and G in the draft or the offensive line will regress from last years horrific performance.

The state of the defense is vastly improved over the starting defense in 2007. In 2007, we did not have a good big man in the middle. The total collapse of our run defense was the result. Jason Ferguson and Randy Starks will make an effective rotation for the 3-4 NT. Here is one legit starting lineup.

RDE Rodrigue Wright
NT Jason Ferguson
LDE Vonnie Holliday
OLB Jason Taylor
ILB Channing Crowder
ILB Reggie Torbor
OLB Joey Porter
CB Will Allen
S Jason Allen
S Y. Bell
CB Mike Lehan

I am sure some of you will disagree with this starting lineup, but I do not care. The point is that there are no missing pieces. There are plenty of opportunities to upgrade, but no holes are there. Finally, we can discuss the implications of each potential 1st pick.

Matt Ryan
The most obvious implication of choosing Matt Ryan is that BP may not be able to fill both the starting OT and starting OG positions that are absent from the roster. One positive is that we will be one year closer to finding a franchise QB if he has that level of ability. Some people believe that Alex Smith, David Carr, and other QBs were broken because they played behind lines that allowed them to be sack 50+ times a season. If Matt Ryan is the first overall pick, he must play by game eight this season. If not, then the Dolphins fans and the Dolphins media will call him a complete bust. The pressure on BP and his staff will be very high. I personally think that the media and most fans are ludicrous to make up their mind that quickly, but this is what will happen. Are we setting both Matt Ryan and the Dolphins to fail if we pick him?

Chris Long
Again, The most obvious implication of choosing Chris Long is that BP may not be able to fill both the starting OT and starting OG positions that are absent from the roster. The short term positive is that Chris Long demonstrated that he has the skills to play OLB, DE, and rush situation DT in a four man front. Is he the next coming of Justin Tuck? He provides depth for both Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. Long term he will take Jason's position when he retires. He provides continuity to the defensive schema and short term value add.

Jake Long
Picking Jake Long nearly guarantees that the offensive line is complete. One of the second round picks can be used to fill the OG position. I not aware of any analyst that believes that Jake Long is not a starting caliber OT. I would expect our line to immediately be in the top 15 in the league if we pick him. The down side is John Beck may never develop to be a starting caliber QB. If not, we will delay the development of a starting caliber QB by at least one year. It is possible to make the playoffs with an average QB when you have a solid defense and an excellent offensive line. It is very difficult to make it to the superbowl with an average QB (only the 2001 Ravens did it). We may not have a replacement for Jason Taylor when he retires if we do not pick Chris Long.
Click to expand...
i think randy starks is gonna be our DE not DT. he would fit perfectly in a DE. If we take Chris long i could see us trade JT, i really do (even though i love JT). We are gonna want him to start right away. I dont think you can compare Long and Tuck very much becasue the giants run a 4-3 and that is way he is on the line. if he was on a 3-4 team he would be a LB and i think he would be a beast there too. i hope Long is a beast a a LB if we draft him. i think he could compare to shawne Merriman LB SD. THey both weigh the exact same (within 2 lbs) Long did play a bit of a 3-4 in college. he would be a great pass rusher and put alot of pressure on the QB. Shawne Merriman is a beat and i'd love to have on on our team. He is a game changer. i think Carl nicks would be a great OT in the 2a pick if we went with long.

i could see us going:

1. chris long OLB/DE
2. Carl nicks OT

Or

1. Jake long
2. Quentin Groves OLB/DE

Id love either one (especially the 1st one). i'd love to find a way to get james hardy WR too
 
I think that there are more benefits to picking Jake Long number one than any of the other top prospects. I'm not a John Beck fan, but he really was not given any chance to succeed in his brief playing time. The offensive line collapsed with him under center, and handing the ball off to Samkon Gado isn't exactly going to open up the passing game either. Let him compete with McCown for the starting gig this season. If McCown falters in the starting job and the team once again falls out of contention early, give Beck every remaining start so we at least know what we have. By picking Long number one overall, at least whoever is under center should have some more time to throw the ball. Put Matt Ryan behind last years offensive line and I doubt he would look any better than John Beck.

And if the Beck/McCown platoon turns out to be a disaster, you can be assured we'll be picking in the top five again next season with another opportunity to draft the top passer available. At least they will have a decent offensive line with a year of experience together protecting them.
 
You have to weigh the positives and negatives also of the trade value if there are any offers against having one of those guys.
 
I like what Adamprez said, think about it. We have J Fabini still out there via FA should we not find a starting caliber OG at #57 or later. Same with C Sims if the RT that we land at #32 isn't ready to start day one.

I am going with Tony Sparano on this one and think that a top notch QB is "more" important and a higher priority to fix. Especially since u need "time" to groom your franchise QB.

If we pick OL, they can start from day one, usually. QB usually takes a year to groom if not a little earlier.

If we neglect the QB position this year, it will mean that we will be at least two or even three more years away from fixing the QB spot....where as if we neglect a top notch OL, we can either land one at #32, or even find one next season and he should be able to start from day one, as they usually are.

So point blank, if grab the franchise QB 'this' year, u take ur year to groom "this" year and u can be lucky that he may start "earlier" as many agree that Ryan is actually mature and seems the "readiest" QB for the NFL, which means he can be like a Rothlesberger/Bledsoe type that started the first year....or even a J Cutler that starts after about 8 games....or just be the normal that sits during his rookie season.

However he works out, u shorten the "wait" if u get him "now".

OL can be a work in progress....by Tony Sparanos own words.
 
lane26 said:
I think we have to pick either one of the Longs. and with the 32 pick...we get the opposite of that pick. Take care of DEF depth, or get the very best OL on the board.
Click to expand...
Trouble is, that can be dangerous if you then HAVE to take one position at 32. What if a top CB is available or someone luckily falls to us? I think if JT is traded for a no 2 then Chris Long becomes very viable. But if we keep JT then we nearly have to go Jake Long IF the two Longs carry a similar grade. We can cope without another good DE/OLB but we have to get a starting tackle out of the draft.
 
I think Jake Long will be the pick. He helps the o-line, gives our QB extra time to throw it, and opens holes for our running backs. I think we are going to be ok on Defense...we could use a CB or Safety, but I think we have to fix our offense first. Jake Long is the fix that makes everyone better.
 
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