It can be downloaded here:
http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?jhizgzzy0dy
Here’s how it works:
http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?jhizgzzy0dy
Numbers have always made sense of what usually cannot be described. Statistics are valued because they block out all external factors and let you compare two objects impartially. This process is particularly advantageous when it pertains to sports. We have seen in the past couple of years a boom in the subject of sports statistics, with Michael Lewis’ brilliant Moneyball to the continued success of the Boston Red Sox who employ such sabermetrics. This statistical approach has begun to slowly invade other sports as well. Such websites as FootballOutsiders.com and AdvancedNFLstats.com put these numbers to good use pertaining to football and Wages of Wins (dberri.wordpress.com) concentrates mainly on basketball. After being enthralled in their theories and information, I decided to combine statistics with my favorite sports holiday, the NFL Draft.
Too often do teams ‘reach’ for a prospect given their ‘need’ for that position. Most of the time, these reaches perform much lower than the slot they were picked at. I feel the best strategy for procuring talent for your team is the pick the best player available (BPA). This ensures that you are getting the best available talent, according to your research and scouting, for each specific pick. However, a team’s needs cannot be completely ignored. A medium must be found between the two. That is why I created the Draft Board Simulator spreadsheet to allow for complete individual customization. This is my first attempt, so it is very elementary so far, but I will make additional improvements as I get more time and helpful feedback.
Here’s how it works:
1. As you progress through the offseason, you update the spreadsheet accordingly. I initially assumed every of the Dolphin’s five major free agents (V. Carey, Y. Bell, A. Goodman, C. Crowder and R. Hill) to be resigned because this was the easiest approach. Then you rank each available position on a point scale with 100 being the most important position of need. In my rankings I have Center listed at a 92 followed by Free Safety at 91 and Wide Receiver, Inside Linebacker and Cornerback all at a 90. I didn’t feel anything needed to be higher than 92 because I assumed everyone resigned. If the Dolphins lost someone, for example Vernon Carey, Offensive Tackle would probably jump to the top at about a 95. So, adjust the point value under “NEED” at the top to your liking, and the ranking next to it should automatically adjust as well. It should also change each player at that position’s need value too. Do not change the order of the position in the cells for that will mess it up.
2. Next, I rated each major prospect at each position. First of all, keep in mind these positions are relative to the Dolphins schemes. So a Defensive End is a 3-4 DE, not a traditional DE. That is why Brian Orakpo for instance is listed as an Outside Linebacker, because he would be a OLB in our scheme. Each prospect’s skill level is where I feel they are right now. I tried to be fairly conservative in my rankings, you don’t want a bunch of 99’s and never want any 100’s. Right now this skill level is just an overall skill level. In the future, I would like to have subcategories that would add up to a much more true skill level. Adjust each prospect’s skill level as you feel and it will automatically change his overall score, which will be explained in a little. Do not change the order in the cells. If you want to add a prospect you can just replace a lower prospect’s name at that position that you won’t miss from the board.
3. Next, I rated each prospect’s potential skill level. I’m not big on projecting a prospect’s potential, but with proper coaching some prospects will get better compared to others. For instance, I feel Andre Smith could end up being a much better Right Tackle than Left Tackle, so his ‘potential’ score is a 98 when a currently higher rated Eugene Monroe’s potential is a 97. Change each prospect’s ‘potential’ skill level as you see fit.
4. The third rating for each prospect is his position’s ‘need’ rating that you adjusted in the beginning.
5. For the total score, I felt it should be 70% based on current skill, 13% based on potential skill, and 17% based on need. These numbers are weird but it is fun to play with each of them. If you feel the score should be based more on BPA then you could change it to 75% current skill, 15% potential, and 10% need, or accordingly. If you feel we should be picking more on need then change that. To change the formula, click on cell “I 23” which is Matthew Stafford’s total score. Above the column headers you should see a formula bar that currently reads:
=C23*0.7+E23*0.13+G23*0.17
To adjust the current skill level change the “0.7” to another fraction, to adjust the potential skill level change the “0.13”, and to adjust the need value change the “0.17” value. Make sure your three numbers add up to 1.0 for 100% of the total score (for instance 0.8,0.1,0.1 or 0.65,0.15,0.2). Do not change the letters in the formula bar or anything else. After just changing the numbers to your liking, press enter and you should see a new score. Now, this only applies to Matthew Stafford so far so click the box on the lower right hand of the cell and drag it all the way to the last player. This should change everyone’s score and their ranking.
=C23*0.7+E23*0.13+G23*0.17
To adjust the current skill level change the “0.7” to another fraction, to adjust the potential skill level change the “0.13”, and to adjust the need value change the “0.17” value. Make sure your three numbers add up to 1.0 for 100% of the total score (for instance 0.8,0.1,0.1 or 0.65,0.15,0.2). Do not change the letters in the formula bar or anything else. After just changing the numbers to your liking, press enter and you should see a new score. Now, this only applies to Matthew Stafford so far so click the box on the lower right hand of the cell and drag it all the way to the last player. This should change everyone’s score and their ranking.
6. To the right is the overall draft board. This should automatically update with the score you put in. To the right of the score in the draft board, you should see a number. Do not touch this number, it is just the row number for that player and it is vital in the overall calculation. Unfortunately, for some reason I could not figure out, there are no prospect numbers 28, 73, 75, 103, 118, 134, 145, and 155. Do not worry about these numbers, everyone else is still ranked accordingly. Even when you change the ratings, there will still be some numbers listed as N/A. I will try and fix this in the future.
The ultimate goal of this statistical draft board is to compare every prospect impartially, with no favoritism or anything. Sometimes, we fall in love with a favorite team’s prospect or individual prospect, which clouds our true draft rating. I feel this approach is much more reliable and advantageous.
Pay more attention to the process than my prospect rankings. You may not agree with some of them, that is why you can change them as such. I am not a NFL scout or pretend to be, I’m just a college senior at the University of Miami with an unmatched love for football and statistics. If a real scout were to use a similar approach, with much more accurate ratings, I feel this approach would be much, much better. Hopefully, it catches someone’s attention. Thank you for your time and have fun.