2023 Wide Receiver (Senior) | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

2023 Wide Receiver (Senior)

LargoFin said:
I know his volume was low, but per game production was excellent. I see his production as excellent. There are players who had more volume, but their impact per game was not as good.
For example:
Quentin Johnston who is a projected 1st round pick in last two years:
20 games, 12 TD, 93 catches, 1700 yards, 18 avg
Matt Landers
19 games, 13 TD, 67 catches, 1400 yards, 21 avg

More touchdowns in less appearances and better average. Similar frame.
He is in Christian Watson, Chase Claypool, AJ Green mold. He is a #1 receiver material. Not just a decent player who can potentially be #2 at best, like Zay Flowers for example.

As far as 4.37 40, yes he would be my 1st round value if he ran as low as 4.5 40. But 4.37 puts him clearly in the 1st round.
By the way, I am likely not going to have Quentin Johnston on my list of interests. I do not like his height/production combination.
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While I don't agree with your assesment, I'm glad to see you put more thought into your opinion than just looking at a 40 time and overreacting.
 
Just listened to the pod with CK. I was just getting used to the thought of taking Mingo at 84, but they fast forward him all the way to 51.

They made a good case for taking him R2. AJ Brown went 51 and that is who Mingo reminds me of so I guess I’m on board.

I’m definitely on board if it’s between Mingo and Darnell Washington or Jahmyr. Gotta go premium position at 51.
 
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Big dude, would be a great compliment to waddle and Hill.

But I doubt the team goes WR in R2 with so few picks and a few significant needs.

How many balls would the 3rd FR in Miami even see anyway? It doesn't make sense to spend what is a pretty precious draft pick on a luxury. Unless they are going to throw on every down and even then Berrios and Wilson should be more than good enough.

I think they stick with Wilson Jr and/or Berrios and give Ezukanma a chance to show what he can do.

Under different circumstances I would love to add the big guy and an absolute stud TE and RB to this Offense but this isn't Madden.
 
The thing to keep in mind about Jonathan Mingo is he took 130 snaps in-line for Ole Miss like a Tight End. That's nearly as many snaps (167) as Mike Gesicki took as an in-line TE in 2022.

And frankly, the tape shows that Mingo is a better in-line blocker than Mike Gesicki was at Penn State. You could argue it's better than Gesicki's tape as a blocker in 2022 as well because I'm not sure he ever really grew much as a blocker in the pros. Prior to McDaniel, I'm not sure previous staffs even asked him to try and grow as a blocker.

So what does this mean?

As we explained on our most recent podcast, you could look at Jonathan Mingo as potentially consolidating two offensive roles into one player. He could take take the snaps that Gesicki (and Tanner Conner) had on the field, even the ones where they were lined up tight to the formation, because Mingo has explicit experience doing exactly that for an SEC team. But he could also take the snaps that Trent Sherfield (and Cedrick Wilson) took as WR3 behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, or even the WR1/WR2 snaps that Sherfield (and Wilson) got filling in for Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle when those two were injured or needed a blow.

Put it all together and apply it to the 1,010 regular season snaps recorded in NFL gamebooks, and the opportunity set (821 snaps) for a Jonathan Mingo is even greater than the total number of snaps taken by Tyreek Hill (759) or Jaylen Waddle (746) in 2022. It doesn't mean Mingo would take every one of those 821 snaps. He could be injured some of the time. Other times he could be on the sidelines because he needs a blow. The opportunity set for Tyreek Hill as WR1 and Jaylen Waddle as WR2 was 1,010 snaps and 971 snaps, respectively, which means those two were off the field 25% and 23% either due to injury or needing some a break or whatever. Apply the same % to Mingo's 821 snaps opportunity set and you'd have a prediction of him getting about 624 snaps. That's higher than Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, and even Trent Sherfield from a year ago.

Short story long, we can sit here and say the Dolphins don't need another WR, but in actuality the opportunity for a Jonathan Mingo in this offense is as-good/likely-greater than it would be for a Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, Brenton Strange, Brayden Willis, Cameron Latu, or Josh Whyle. It's likely a greater opportunity set than any position we could draft outside of OL.

So I don't at all buy the notion that WR isn't a need and therefore the entire position should take lower priority than these other positions. It's about the opportunity set and Jonathan Mingo idiosyncratically has a higher opportunity set than any draft prospect other than a LG (provided the player you draft beats Liam Eichenberg for a job) or RT (provided the player you draft beats Austin Jackson for a job). And while we can't be sure, the Dolphins seem to not be all that urgent about taking an OL to replace those two. It's driving me mad, but that's the body language coming from them.
 
ckparrothead said:
The thing to keep in mind about Jonathan Mingo is he took 130 snaps in-line for Ole Miss like a Tight End. That's nearly as many snaps (167) as Mike Gesicki took as an in-line TE in 2022.

And frankly, the tape shows that Mingo is a better in-line blocker than Mike Gesicki was at Penn State. You could argue it's better than Gesicki's tape as a blocker in 2022 as well because I'm not sure he ever really grew much as a blocker in the pros. Prior to McDaniel, I'm not sure previous staffs even asked him to try and grow as a blocker.

So what does this mean?

As we explained on our most recent podcast, you could look at Jonathan Mingo as potentially consolidating two offensive roles into one player. He could take take the snaps that Gesicki (and Tanner Conner) had on the field, even the ones where they were lined up tight to the formation, because Mingo has explicit experience doing exactly that for an SEC team. But he could also take the snaps that Trent Sherfield (and Cedrick Wilson) took as WR3 behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, or even the WR1/WR2 snaps that Sherfield (and Wilson) got filling in for Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle when those two were injured or needed a blow.

Put it all together and apply it to the 1,010 regular season snaps recorded in NFL gamebooks, and the opportunity set (821 snaps) for a Jonathan Mingo is even greater than the total number of snaps taken by Tyreek Hill (759) or Jaylen Waddle (746) in 2022. It doesn't mean Mingo would take every one of those 821 snaps. He could be injured some of the time. Other times he could be on the sidelines because he needs a blow. The opportunity set for Tyreek Hill as WR1 and Jaylen Waddle as WR2 was 1,010 snaps and 971 snaps, respectively, which means those two were off the field 25% and 23% either due to injury or needing some a break or whatever. Apply the same % to Mingo's 821 snaps opportunity set and you'd have a prediction of him getting about 624 snaps. That's higher than Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, and even Trent Sherfield from a year ago.

Short story long, we can sit here and say the Dolphins don't need another WR, but in actuality the opportunity for a Jonathan Mingo in this offense is as-good/likely-greater than it would be for a Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, Brenton Strange, Brayden Willis, Cameron Latu, or Josh Whyle. It's likely a greater opportunity set than any position we could draft outside of OL.

So I don't at all buy the notion that WR isn't a need and therefore the entire position should take lower priority than these other positions. It's about the opportunity set and Jonathan Mingo idiosyncratically has a higher opportunity set than any draft prospect other than a LG (provided the player you draft beats Liam Eichenberg for a job) or RT (provided the player you draft beats Austin Jackson for a job). And while we can't be sure, the Dolphins seem to not be all that urgent about taking an OL to replace those two. It's driving me mad, but that's the body language coming from them.
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That's the thing about Mingo. He can get those schemed flat looks that TE's typically do, because you can use him as a blocker in motion or just as an H-back, and when he has the ball in his hands, he's dynamic and hard to tackle.

You can also use him on alert routes, because he has the speed, size, and tracking to be a legit downfield threat.

Super fun skillset. If not Miami, I hope he goes to a team that will utilize his versatility.
 
Never really thought about WR. Great arguments for taking a big slot type but we have Wilson and Ezukanma that are also big slots as well so do we use one of our high picks on a redundant role? Are there any options later on, like a Higgins or Michael Wilson, that could be just as effective without the price?
 
NoblePhin said:
Never really thought about WR. Great arguments for taking a big slot type but we have Wilson and Ezukanma
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Plus Braylon Sanders. I doubt they will take a wideout.
Maybe if for example Flowers drops and they have him top 30 and he is there at 51 and he seem a steal at that spot for them.
 
I like Mingo's size and frame, and he has pretty good footwork for that size, but he is too inconsistent catching the ball and his contested catch numbers are pretty bad especially considering that frame.
 





Elijah Higgins 6'3 235 4.5 40

Projected 6th round

Per nfldraftbuzz.com :

Scouting Report: Strengths​

  • Higgins runs precise routes, showing an innate feel for setting up defensive backs to create separation.
  • Top-shelf balance and the lower-body strength to power through arm tackles. Has very good vision to set up his moves with impressive run-after the- catch ability.
  • Made Bruce Feldman's Freak's List - ranked #32. He wrote, "Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee said Higgins, despite his huge frame, is the fastest or one of the two fastest players in the program. McKee said one day this offseason, players were challenging each other on the Kaiser machine, putting 80 pounds on it to row it to see what their max power would be. McKee said most of the guys were registering around 1,600-1,700. “Elijah went up there and hit 2,100 and everyone started freaking out."
  • He shows good initial quickness off the line of scrimmage, and Higgins has enough strength to be able to consistently escape the jam at the next level. He’s a coordinated hands catcher who effectively tracks the ball downfield.
  • Higgins has strong hands and is extremely competitive, and he has an innate sense of timing when it comes to elevating and high-pointing balls.
  • A versatile weapon, proving to be effective inside in the slot and outside on the perimeter. Makes plays at all levels of the field.
  • Has a tall frame and long arms, plus strong hands, giving him a huge catch radius.
 
The only WR I would draft in this class for the Dolphins would be Matt Landers, because I think he can be our second Tyreek Hill. He is very fast, and big, so he can be #1 WR. And I would draft him at 51 if I was going for a wideout.
 
NoblePhin said:


Wow you nailed it


Elijah Higgins 6'3 235 4.5 40

Projected 6th round

Per nfldraftbuzz.com :

Scouting Report: Strengths​

  • Higgins runs precise routes, showing an innate feel for setting up defensive backs to create separation.
  • Top-shelf balance and the lower-body strength to power through arm tackles. Has very good vision to set up his moves with impressive run-after the- catch ability.
  • Made Bruce Feldman's Freak's List - ranked #32. He wrote, "Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee said Higgins, despite his huge frame, is the fastest or one of the two fastest players in the program. McKee said one day this offseason, players were challenging each other on the Kaiser machine, putting 80 pounds on it to row it to see what their max power would be. McKee said most of the guys were registering around 1,600-1,700. “Elijah went up there and hit 2,100 and everyone started freaking out."
  • He shows good initial quickness off the line of scrimmage, and Higgins has enough strength to be able to consistently escape the jam at the next level. He’s a coordinated hands catcher who effectively tracks the ball downfield.
  • Higgins has strong hands and is extremely competitive, and he has an innate sense of timing when it comes to elevating and high-pointing balls.
  • A versatile weapon, proving to be effective inside in the slot and outside on the perimeter. Makes plays at all levels of the field.
  • Has a tall frame and long arms, plus strong hands, giving him a huge catch radius.
Click to expand...
 
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