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35 Reasons To Be Optimistic For 2018

ckparrothead

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In conjunction with our latest episode of 3 Yards Per Carry (Episode 1.8: Was Steve Ross right? Even a little?), we have released 35 detailed reasons I have compiled for why we should be optimistic about 2018, as compared to 2017.

Here's the starter tweet (it's a tweet storm of 35 tweets):



And here are the links to the latest episode of 3 Yards Per Carry:

 
Something to listen to on my way home from work.

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For the record I was not very optimistic one year ago.

I remember having a pretty furious text argument with my co-hosts (we weren't doing a podcast back then) and my position was that the Miami Dolphins appear to have gotten worse that off season.

My points back then were:

1. A slow defense that never uses dime got slower, and there's still no reason to believe they're going to use dime, as the third safety on the roster was set to miss half the season and they never used dime in the preseason. This is a factor that I have not understood. Most of the league uses dime, hybrid players, fast linebackers, but not Miami.

2. Simon had told us before free agency that he was told Lawrence Timmons was dumb as a post, and then that turned out to be the guy we got in free agency. I wasn't about to forget that morsel of information just because he was now scheduled to don a Fins uniform. He turned out to be dumb as a post, exactly as we were told.

3. Our risks were asymmetrically centered on the players that (on paper) were supposed to be our best players. Ryan Tannehill (franchise QB, on paper) was on ACL recovery. Byron Maxwell (our #1 corner, on paper) established a career tendency to lure you in and then slap you full in the face with inconsistency or missing a month with a hangnail. Cameron Wake (elite level pass rusher) was old. Laremy Tunsil (franchise left tackle, on paper) hadn't yet reached potential and had a long history of missing games with nicks and scrapes. Mike Pouncey (pro bowl center, on paper) had the hips of an octogenarian. Kiko Alonso (our best linebacker, on paper) had an inconsistent career going back to college and a tendency to miss a lot of time. Reshad Jones (pro bowl safety) was coming off a season-ending shoulder injury with rumors of nerve damage. DeVante Parker (a starter, on paper) had a tendency to aggravate an injury every time he sneezed. Jay Ajayi in addition to attitude problems was known to have a knee issue and an expiration timer that could ding any minute. Lawrence Timmons (starting linebacker, on paper) was old, slow, and dumb. Nate Allen (starting safety, on paper) had an injury history. The point was the heaviest risks were generally clustered around what on paper were supposed to be the best players. The only high quality players that seemed to be clean of risk were Ndamukong Suh, Jarvis Landry, and Kenny Stills.

4. I really did not like how the front office took the priorities away from the offensive line. It was so crystal clear that when they brought those five horses to the games in 2016, they got great production out of Jay Ajayi AND Ryan Tannehill. All the sudden, it's not that important. We're OK with the Pouncey risks. We're OK trying to get guys like Isaac Asiata and Ted Larsen to step up. Suddenly we're pretending Jermon Bushrod was good in 2016 when he was nothing of the sort. The offensive line was one big, "This is fine" meme.
 
01. It is typical of teams that bounced DOWN the previous year (10-6 to 6-10) to bounce back UP the next year. Average bounce back is worth an extra win or two. Or three. Just the way it seems to work out.

02. Two division foes will be under tremendous pressure to play high caliber, high pick rookie QBs, both of whom are (and I hate this term but it's true) raw as hell. Potentially 3-4 games vs. rookies.

03. The head coach who was still wet behind the ears in 2016 and 2017 has done away with being a players coach and is a lot more demanding of his players, sending strong messages. This is a good thing.

04. The de facto offensive coordinator (Gase) also seemed to be disabused of some wrongheaded notions about rigid personnel packaging, narrow play calling, over-relying on key players. He's diversifying significantly.

05. Gase has assembled more of the egghead types on his offensive staff that 'get' him, to be part of the offensive game planning. Whatever Gase's potential truly is, we're closer to seeing what they hired.

06. Eric Studesville is a legit strong hire that deserves mention on his own. Miami had a cocaine-addled run game coordinator who got fired mid-year. Now they have a real one.

07. Similar to Gase, inexperienced Matt Burke seems (based on statements, priorities) properly disabused of antiquated notions about the need for speed, hybrid linebackers, and dime defense.

08. Tony Oden and Renaldo Hill are legit strong hires that deserve mention on their own, and you're going to see a lot more Saban-inspired coverages, better communication in the defensive backfield.

09. For that matter, Kris Kocurek is also a smart, scheme compatible hire. Whatever is the end potential of this scheme, a guy like Kocurek gets us closer to it.

10. Front office prioritized quarterback protection. Josh Sitton is one of the best pass protecting guards in football. He not only locks down his own spot, but is a stabilizing presence protecting Laremy Tunsil's inside post leg.

11. More QB protection gifts from the front office: they set aside a significant amount of cap money to make sure Ja'Wuan James comes back (after missing 8 games in 2017).

12. Mike Pouncey was a good pass protector in 2017 but his inability to practice with the team detracted from chemistry. They've replaced him with a cerebral player of similar production, but one who will practice.

13. Still on theme of QB protection, Frank Gore has always been one of the best at backfield protection, and now the big, strong Kalen Ballage comes on as one of the best in college football at that task.

14. Ryan Tannehill is planned to return and Tannehill > Cutler/Moore. It's really simple. There are things about Tannehill we've taken for granted. Cutler missed passes Tannehill can make in his sleep.

15. Tannehill's knee reconstruction surgery leaves less of a risk overhang than his previous decision to leave it alone and try and let scar tissue stabilize the partial tear.

16. Tannehill responds to adversity. Complacency is his enemy, but he responds strongly to adversity. I can cite plenty of examples if you want.

17. Lost a quick-pass option (Landry), but added FIVE legit quick-pass options to replace (Amendola, Wilson, Gesicki, Gore, Ballage). Tannehill's ranking goes WAY up when getting ball out < 2.5 seconds. More QB protection.

18. Speaking of QB protection, ground game helps all QBs. But Tannehill (since A&M) is more sensitive than most. Getting Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage reduces risk of Drake's trademark lack of durability.

19. Front office set offensive themes of SPEED, INTELLIGENCE, and MATURITY. All are steps in a good direction, even before you get into the individual players involved.

20. Front office set defensive themes of SPEED, COVERAGE, and MATURITY. Again, steps in exactly the right direction, even before accounting for individual players.

21. Maybe for the first time since coming to Miami, Gase has a broad enough base of personnel to use a full array of personnel packages, e.g. 12 personnel, 21 personnel, 22 personnel, even a pseudo FB like MarQueis Gray.

22. Nice acuity in the acquisitions of Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola. Watch the way KC used Wilson and Tyreek Hill (Jakeem Grant?) chemistry, and the way NE used Amendola and Brandin Cooks (Kenny Stills?) chemistry.

23. Mike Gesicki is an animal in the passing game. He is the best tight end Adam Gase has ever had, and Gase's predilection toward Y-ISO makes the position important to his offense.

24. Watch the way Mike Martz (a mentor of Adam Gase's) used Robert Holcombe in 1999, and think the name: Kalen Ballage.

25. Dowell Loggains found 360 snaps and 152 touches/targets for Tarik Cohen in 2017. This bodes well for Jakeem Grant, as does the acquisition of two good screen blocking WRs in Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola.

26. Excellent they were able to upgrade the pass prowess and speed at the TE position while maintaining block prowess with a Durham Smythe, A.J. Derby, and MarQueis Gray. More QB protection.

27. I may not have as high opinion as most on Josh Sitton's run blocking prowess, but strictly speaking he's better at it than Jermon Bushrod was, and Kilgore's run blocking is no worse than Pouncey's was in 2017. Slight upgrade.

28. Robert Quinn has not been a stellar pass rusher in a number of years, but he is better at it than Andre Branch. A full year out of Hayes would be nice, and Branch himself was unhealthy in 2017. Charles Harris should develop.

29. Three valid safeties, especially one with extensive slot acumen (Fitzpatrick), allows Burke to put Dime on field in 3rd & Long (where we were the worst defense in football), and that's a big deal.

30. Three valid safeties, especially one of which is over-sized (McDonald), allows Burke to experiment with Big Nickel (4 DL, 2 LB, 2 CB, 3 S) instead of Base in order to help Base pass defense (ranked #26 of 32 in YPA).

31. Speedy linebackers Jerome Baker and Terence Garvin should also give Burke options in Base to help the #26 of 32 ranked Base personnel pass defense, especially in defending tight ends (ranked #32 of 32 in FtsyPPG).

32. Three valid safeties, especially one with extensive slot acumen (Fitzpatrick), allows Burke to improve the run defense in Nickel (ranked #30 of 32 in YPC) in situations that aren't necessarily pass-oriented.

33. Xavien Howard is a third year player (typically ascending) whose light clicked on halfway thru 2017, and that can be a BIG deal as a corner who can be the MEG (man everywhere he goes) corner in Oden's coverages.

34. Most of improvement tends to come from maturation of previous draftees, signings. New acquisitions tend to be overrated. Most agree Miami drafted well 2015 to 2017. Those drafts coming into full flower?

35. Ja'Wuan James (25), Robert Quinn (27), Bobby McCain (24), and Jordan Phillips (25) are entering contract years, and that's typically a good thing for young starters positioned to make an impact.
 
01. It is typical of teams that bounced DOWN the previous year (10-6 to 6-10) to bounce back UP the next year. Average bounce back is worth an extra win or two. Or three. Just the way it seems to work out.

02. Two division foes will be under tremendous pressure to play high caliber, high pick rookie QBs, both of whom are (and I hate this term but it's true) raw as hell. Potentially 3-4 games vs. rookies.

03. The head coach who was still wet behind the ears in 2016 and 2017 has done away with being a players coach and is a lot more demanding of his players, sending strong messages. This is a good thing.

04. The de facto offensive coordinator (Gase) also seemed to be disabused of some wrongheaded notions about rigid personnel packaging, narrow play calling, over-relying on key players. He's diversifying significantly.

05. Gase has assembled more of the egghead types on his offensive staff that 'get' him, to be part of the offensive game planning. Whatever Gase's potential truly is, we're closer to seeing what they hired.

06. Eric Studesville is a legit strong hire that deserves mention on his own. Miami had a cocaine-addled run game coordinator who got fired mid-year. Now they have a real one.

07. Similar to Gase, inexperienced Matt Burke seems (based on statements, priorities) properly disabused of antiquated notions about the need for speed, hybrid linebackers, and dime defense.

08. Tony Oden and Renaldo Hill are legit strong hires that deserve mention on their own, and you're going to see a lot more Saban-inspired coverages, better communication in the defensive backfield.

09. For that matter, Kris Kocurek is also a smart, scheme compatible hire. Whatever is the end potential of this scheme, a guy like Kocurek gets us closer to it.

10. Front office prioritized quarterback protection. Josh Sitton is one of the best pass protecting guards in football. He not only locks down his own spot, but is a stabilizing presence protecting Laremy Tunsil's inside post leg.

11. More QB protection gifts from the front office: they set aside a significant amount of cap money to make sure Ja'Wuan James comes back (after missing 8 games in 2017).

12. Mike Pouncey was a good pass protector in 2017 but his inability to practice with the team detracted from chemistry. They've replaced him with a cerebral player of similar production, but one who will practice.

13. Still on theme of QB protection, Frank Gore has always been one of the best at backfield protection, and now the big, strong Kalen Ballage comes on as one of the best in college football at that task.

14. Ryan Tannehill is planned to return and Tannehill > Cutler/Moore. It's really simple. There are things about Tannehill we've taken for granted. Cutler missed passes Tannehill can make in his sleep.

15. Tannehill's knee reconstruction surgery leaves less of a risk overhang than his previous decision to leave it alone and try and let scar tissue stabilize the partial tear.

16. Tannehill responds to adversity. Complacency is his enemy, but he responds strongly to adversity. I can cite plenty of examples if you want.

17. Lost a quick-pass option (Landry), but added FIVE legit quick-pass options to replace (Amendola, Wilson, Gesicki, Gore, Ballage). Tannehill's ranking goes WAY up when getting ball out < 2.5 seconds. More QB protection.

18. Speaking of QB protection, ground game helps all QBs. But Tannehill (since A&M) is more sensitive than most. Getting Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage reduces risk of Drake's trademark lack of durability.

19. Front office set offensive themes of SPEED, INTELLIGENCE, and MATURITY. All are steps in a good direction, even before you get into the individual players involved.

20. Front office set defensive themes of SPEED, COVERAGE, and MATURITY. Again, steps in exactly the right direction, even before accounting for individual players.

21. Maybe for the first time since coming to Miami, Gase has a broad enough base of personnel to use a full array of personnel packages, e.g. 12 personnel, 21 personnel, 22 personnel, even a pseudo FB like MarQueis Gray.

22. Nice acuity in the acquisitions of Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola. Watch the way KC used Wilson and Tyreek Hill (Jakeem Grant?) chemistry, and the way NE used Amendola and Brandin Cooks (Kenny Stills?) chemistry.

23. Mike Gesicki is an animal in the passing game. He is the best tight end Adam Gase has ever had, and Gase's predilection toward Y-ISO makes the position important to his offense.

24. Watch the way Mike Martz (a mentor of Adam Gase's) used Robert Holcombe in 1999, and think the name: Kalen Ballage.

25. Dowell Loggains found 360 snaps and 152 touches/targets for Tarik Cohen in 2017. This bodes well for Jakeem Grant, as does the acquisition of two good screen blocking WRs in Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola.

26. Excellent they were able to upgrade the pass prowess and speed at the TE position while maintaining block prowess with a Durham Smythe, A.J. Derby, and MarQueis Gray. More QB protection.

27. I may not have as high opinion as most on Josh Sitton's run blocking prowess, but strictly speaking he's better at it than Jermon Bushrod was, and Kilgore's run blocking is no worse than Pouncey's was in 2017. Slight upgrade.

28. Robert Quinn has not been a stellar pass rusher in a number of years, but he is better at it than Andre Branch. A full year out of Hayes would be nice, and Branch himself was unhealthy in 2017. Charles Harris should develop.

29. Three valid safeties, especially one with extensive slot acumen (Fitzpatrick), allows Burke to put Dime on field in 3rd & Long (where we were the worst defense in football), and that's a big deal.

30. Three valid safeties, especially one of which is over-sized (McDonald), allows Burke to experiment with Big Nickel (4 DL, 2 LB, 2 CB, 3 S) instead of Base in order to help Base pass defense (ranked #26 of 32 in YPA).

31. Speedy linebackers Jerome Baker and Terence Garvin should also give Burke options in Base to help the #26 of 32 ranked Base personnel pass defense, especially in defending tight ends (ranked #32 of 32 in FtsyPPG).

32. Three valid safeties, especially one with extensive slot acumen (Fitzpatrick), allows Burke to improve the run defense in Nickel (ranked #30 of 32 in YPC) in situations that aren't necessarily pass-oriented.

33. Xavien Howard is a third year player (typically ascending) whose light clicked on halfway thru 2017, and that can be a BIG deal as a corner who can be the MEG (man everywhere he goes) corner in Oden's coverages.

34. Most of improvement tends to come from maturation of previous draftees, signings. New acquisitions tend to be overrated. Most agree Miami drafted well 2015 to 2017. Those drafts coming into full flower?

35. Ja'Wuan James (25), Robert Quinn (27), Bobby McCain (24), and Jordan Phillips (25) are entering contract years, and that's typically a good thing for young starters positioned to make an impact.


I love finally seeing some positivity. around here.

I for one am very excited about the potential of this relatively young football team. I like this team already so much more than last years. It seems to have some more chutzpah.
 
Ck,

Im about 10 mins into the podcast will listen to the rest after work so far so good keep them coming
 
I like the 35 reasons. I think the biggest reason we would be better then most people expect is because of better QB play. I think that's the biggest question mark on the team. I like what the FO did with replacing the players. I'm glad players like Pouncey are gone. We need smart players and I think we have them now. We need to keep drafting smart players and also replacing some of the coaches that aren't doing what is expected of them.
 
Thanks CK, Simon, and Alf for the 35 reasons to be optimistic. To be honest, I am still a little pissed at Ross (and the asshole that leaked it) for what he said about our draft. I thought it was a dick move and very unwelcoming to our top 3 picks. Can we have a year where our owner and our team actually have their **** together? I can't stand the dysfunction year after year. Not that anyone really gives a crap, but I was to the point where I was actually thinking about giving up as a Dolphin fan and finding a new team. After reading your post I feel a little bit better because I really am excited about the potential our offense has this year. You all made some really good points. I hope our team really surprises us, in a good way, and surpasses all of our expectations.
 
35b. DVP is entering into something like a contract year. If he doesn't play well this year, they would probably rescind his fifth-year option and make him a FA in 2019.
 
Great insite and analysis CK. What are your thoughts on the Defense’s inability against the run? What do you see, as a way, to improve on such an atrocious display of run defense last year; based on what's been done this offseason, along with potential player improvement? And lastly, what's your take on the 2019 draft as it relates to what you perceive as a weakness going into the 2018 season? Thanks as always for your post.
 
Great insite and analysis CK. What are your thoughts on the Defense’s inability against the run? What do you see, as a way, to improve on such an atrocious display of run defense last year; based on what's been done this offseason, along with potential player improvement? And lastly, what's your take on the 2019 draft as it relates to what you perceive as a weakness going into the 2018 season? Thanks as always for your post.

You have to split it up. They were fine against the run when they marched Base packages on the field about 37% of the time. They weren't fine when they marched out their Nickel package. If Minkah Fitzpatrick plays up near the line in the nickel that will definitely make an impact on the run defense as he's an excellent help guy from the perimeter. I presume you'd look to perhaps do that on downs where the offense brings out 11 personnel, but the down & distance suggests that a run is a strong possibility. You could also have Minkah back as a deep center and have both Reshad and McDonald up in sort of a whip and rover look...but you'd have to be confident in those guys in coverage.

Tough call really. It may be that they have to start questioning several things that they're doing, particularly in nickel, including blitz packaging. They're generally not a team that blitzes linebackers, or blitzes much at all really. They may need to do more run blitzes.
 
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