4th down - what should happen?

[afishfan]

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/09/belichick-and-sign-stealing.html

ive posted quite a bit about going for it on forth down more often, both in the past and this past week.

It's my personal belief that more wins ultimately would be the result. Very similar to the thinking many use in madden. why doesnt that mentality carry over to the football field. the answer is it should.

personally, as ive posted in the past, i believe (like nash's theory in beautiful mind - and as mentioned in the article). if you can put yourself in the OPPOSITE situation you currently find yourself in (in other words if you have a 4th and one at your opponents 30yrd line down by 3 with 2 minutes to go.....put yourself in the DEFENSIVE coaches position and ask yourself what do I want to happen here....THEN DO THE OPPOSITE)....so in this scenario YOU GO FOR IT...cause the other coach WANTS you to kick the field goal, cause that means the worse that happens is a tie after the kick. the problem is 99% of coaches kick the field goal

this article will partially explain the probabilities of success in these scenarios. the bottom line is inside the opponents 40 and 4th and 5 yards to go or less. the team should VIRTUALLY NEVER PUNT. Miami did EXACTLY that at the beginning of the fourth in the oakland game and it almost cost us the game.

I could go on with this one all day. it's much deeper than what ive said or the article brings up, but it's pretty clear this should be the strategy employed by all NFL teams that want to experience more success over time

 

[Rev Kev]

Inside the 40 at that juncture..., in that very situation we should go for it...

 

[Kdawg954]

That punt didn't almost cost us the game . . . the punt return on the next series almost did. There is no guarantee that Miami would have made it on 4th down there . . . and we were up 2 scores in the 4th quarter against one of the worst offenses in the league. I definitely understand the logic, and it actually worked out well as we pinned them inside the 10.

Now, me, I personally was rooting to go for it . . . a lil too conservative . . . but I understood the logic . . . the way the defense was playing and the oakland offense . . . it probably was the correct call. I was more mad with the 3rd down call . . . right away we should have been thinking 1st down . . . not hand off up the middle to get 5 yards . . . was a bad call and that is the call I was disturbed by.

The play u are reffering to, if I knew that would be the result on 4th down . . . I would punt everytime . . . be mad with the 3rd down call.

 

[afishfan]

That punt didn't almost cost us the game . . . the punt return on the next series almost did. There is no guarantee that Miami would have made it on 4th down there . . . and we were up 2 scores in the 4th quarter against one of the worst offenses in the league. I definitely understand the logic, and it actually worked out well as we pinned them inside the 10.

Now, me, I personally was rooting to go for it . . . a lil too conservative . . . but I understood the logic . . . the way the defense was playing and the oakland offense . . . it probably was the correct call. I was more mad with the 3rd down call . . . right away we should have been thinking 1st down . . . not hand off up the middle to get 5 yards . . . was a bad call and that is the call I was disturbed by.

The play u are reffering to, if I knew that would be the result on 4th down . . . I would punt everytime . . . be mad with the 3rd down call.

YES IT DID ALMOST COST US THE GAME. THATS THE DAMN POINT!!! read the article. the raiders go got pinned at the 8 (a 26 yard change in field position). the proceeded to score a field goal, and cut it to a one possesion game. if the dolphins go for it and miss they were no worse of. if they make it, the game is OVER!

they end up with a field goal AT LEAST and milk another 2-5 minutes off the clock.

the fact is their probability of winning DECREASED by punting that ball vs. going for it on fourth down at the 34.

and the fact the raiders actually took the lead in the game reinforces the point.

 

[moe]

YES IT DID ALMOST COST US THE GAME. THATS THE DAMN POINT!!! read the article. the raiders go got pinned at the 8 (a 26 yard change in field position). the proceeded to score a field goal, and cut it to a one possesion game. if the dolphins go for it and miss they were no worse of. if they make it, the game is OVER!

they end up with a field goal AT LEAST and milk another 2-5 minutes off the clock.

the fact is their probability of winning DECREASED by punting that ball vs. going for it on fourth down at the 34.

and the fact the raiders actually took the lead in the game reinforces the point.

If they could drive all the way down into field goal range in that from the 8, then the probability that they would have gotten a touchdown greatly increases from the result of a failed 4th down conversion...doesn't it?

I believe Tony has pulled the trigger on some pretty gutsy calls this season...a lot more than any other recent coach that we've had.

 

[afishfan]

If they could drive all the way down into field goal range in that from the 8, then the probability that they would have gotten a touchdown greatly increases from the result of a failed 4th down conversion...doesn't it?

I believe Tony has pulled the trigger on some pretty gutsy calls this season...a lot more than any other recent coach that we've had.

risk reward my friend. yes it does increase. but this from a team that cant punch the ball in for a touchdown in the red zone. the fact is our chances of winning the game increase MORE by going for it. if the dolphins score there the game is over. even if the raiders scored a touchdown miami is still winning and they stop playing as conservative.

listen it worked out. but over the course of say three years it will work out MORE often in our favor by adopting a more aggressive approach (or more analytical approach) to down, distance, and field position philosophies.

the conservative approach adopted by teams to prevent second guessing (simply because its the accepted method - but not the CORRECT one) in the media, is not the approach that win win more games. the vast majority of coaches are wrong on this. but they are scared of the backlash.

marvin lewis was even presented with this info, and he even said it made sense, but basically he had to deal with second guessing so that would prevent him from acting on it. THAT IS COMPLETELY IGNORANT. and one of many reasons he wont be the bengals head coach at the end of the season.

bilicheck gets it i hate to say, sparano is a little more daring, but not as much as he should be given the circumstances.

 

[afishfan]

If they could drive all the way down into field goal range in that from the 8, then the probability that they would have gotten a touchdown greatly increases from the result of a failed 4th down conversion...doesn't it?

I believe Tony has pulled the trigger on some pretty gutsy calls this season...a lot more than any other recent coach that we've had.

and here is even more proof. just logically speaking. empathize here. put yourself in the raiders shoes.

you are down 9 points with 12 minutes to go. your opponent has the ball at YOUR 34 yard line. it's 4th and 4. they have moved the ball at will on you all day. they have an accurate quarterback, and receivers that dont drop passes, and two of the best running backs in the game, they also are NOT predictable on offense.

YOU FRICKIN WANT THEM TO PUNT. PERIOD!!!!! no ifs ands or buts. they punt and you lose at worst 20 yards of field position. THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL YOU WANT YOUR DEFENSE TO FACE THAT FOURTH DOWN PLAY. a fourth down conversion and the game is on ice and you know it.

that is proof right there what the correct call is. you need to pressure the other team, and this is fundamental and teams STILL get it wrong.

 

[Kdawg954]

The Raiders haven't scored an offensive TD in over 3 games . . . why not start them inside the 10? Like my moe said, Tony S. has made some real gutsy calls this year . . . and maybe he made a mistake . . . he is a rookie coach too . . . but the punt did not cost us . . . the punt return did . . . but we still won the game . . . and Tony S. learned from his earlier mistake. Let's get on to New England . . . we got the W already bro.

 

[BrewMan13]

I agree, you should never punt from your opponents 34 yard line and only sparingly if you are in their territory, period. Or at least kick the field goal. A pro kicker (even tho he's a rookie) should be able to make a 51/52 yarder, anyway.

 

[afishfan]

The Raiders haven't scored an offensive TD in over 3 games . . . why not start them inside the 10? Like my moe said, Tony S. has made some real gutsy calls this year . . . and maybe he made a mistake . . . he is a rookie coach too . . . but the punt did not cost us . . . the punt return did . . . but we still won the game . . . and Tony S. learned from his earlier mistake. Let's get on to New England . . . we got the W already bro.

ive already explained WHY. yes we got the win and thats great. the FACT OF THE MATTER IS WE LOST THE LEAD!! and almost the game by become conservative. why not pin them inside the ten? well for one because we should have scored. twenty yards of field position is not enough to justify passing on a scoring opportunity, and chance to kill the clock. If sparano thinks time of possession is so important (which it is) then WHY GIVE THE BALL AWAY??? hold on to it. they should have gone for it on 4th down. read the article (i already posted) bro.

in fact espn has an article about this same thing today (which i couldnt believe!!!) I'll see if i can find it again.

 

[afishfan]

Inside the 40 at that juncture..., in that very situation we should go for it...

EVERYTIME man. even in the first quarter. they should be committed to it, and pressure the other team. already given enough info on it. but you want the facts go to the first article i posted.. anyways here is a guy that writes for espn that is on it...found this article today couldnt believe it. he gets it. coaches dont. (well except for belicheck)

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/081118&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab3pos1

 

[Kdawg954]

I agree, you should never punt from your opponents 34 yard line and only sparingly if you are in their territory, period. Or at least kick the field goal. A pro kicker (even tho he's a rookie) should be able to make a 51/52 yarder, anyway.

Wind was an issue at the stadium on Sunday . . . which is why he didn't allow carp to attempt the FG . . . in both situations . . . from 50+ . . . carp can make those.

 

[Kdawg954]

ive already explained WHY. yes we got the win and thats great. the FACT OF THE MATTER IS WE LOST THE LEAD!! and almost the game by become conservative. why not pin them inside the ten? well for one because we should have scored. twenty yards of field position is not enough to justify passing on a scoring opportunity, and chance to kill the clock. If sparano thinks time of possession is so important (which it is) then WHY GIVE THE BALL AWAY??? hold on to it. they should have gone for it on 4th down. read the article (i already posted) bro.

in fact espn has an article about this same thing today (which i couldnt believe!!!) I'll see if i can find it again.

U are completely throwing out the possiblity of us not making the 4th down conversion. It wasn't 4th and 1 . . . it was 4th and 4 . . . those 27 yards we gained on the punt (not 20) . . . was the difference between a TD and a FG u could say . . . as Oakland drove the ball down the field. . . then they get the punt return and they are up 5 and we gotta score a TD.

Against the RAIDERS . . . a team who has not scored a offensive TD in more than THREE games . . . u can play a little "wanny ball" and make them drive 92 yards. . . but Sparano forgot HOW BAD his special teams are, and that they were capable of scoring on special teams.

Like I said earlier . . . he should have just got the conversion on 3rd and 5 . . . that was the teams mistake . . . hand off up the middle was not the best play call, we should have never been faced with a 4th down. And I also agree with you that me, personally, would have went for it . . . but I'm not the coach and I understand the logic . . . u can't get hung up on that 4th down . . . get hung up on the horrible special teams that we have played all year. Tony could have punted again LOL, but instead went for it on 4th and made it later on . . . . give him props for that, that took major balls not attempting the FG . . wind or not.

That article u posted with the Barber play . . . I completely agreed with going for it in that situation. It is a confidence builder for a team that was supposed to be the Super Bowl favorite . . . it was 4th and 1 . . . and was against Washington . . . a much better team than Oakland. U don't want them to get the ball back, u wanna control your destiny.

Different situations to go for it . . . and it was a learning experience for Tony, with Chad and Ronnie and Ricky . . . anything 5 yards or less inside the opponets 40 . . . I feel comfortable making, and I'm sure he will think twice if he is faced with a similar situation in future games.

 

[moe]

:goodpost:Yeah, this pretty much lays it all out. Good job.

risk reward my friend. yes it does increase. but this from a team that cant punch the ball in for a touchdown in the red zone. the fact is our chances of winning the game increase MORE by going for it. if the dolphins score there the game is over. even if the raiders scored a touchdown miami is still winning and they stop playing as conservative.

listen it worked out. but over the course of say three years it will work out MORE often in our favor by adopting a more aggressive approach (or more analytical approach) to down, distance, and field position philosophies.

the conservative approach adopted by teams to prevent second guessing (simply because its the accepted method - but not the CORRECT one) in the media, is not the approach that win win more games. the vast majority of coaches are wrong on this. but they are scared of the backlash.

marvin lewis was even presented with this info, and he even said it made sense, but basically he had to deal with second guessing so that would prevent him from acting on it. THAT IS COMPLETELY IGNORANT. and one of many reasons he wont be the bengals head coach at the end of the season.

bilicheck gets it i hate to say, sparano is a little more daring, but not as much as he should be given the circumstances.

Yeah, OK. I'll give you that but, there are many factors that go into that decision such as offensive play on the given day, the opposing defensive play during the drive, how well our defense is playing... etc. It is too diverse of a decision to apply blanketing statements to it. That being said, I think Tony is learning a little more as he we go along and I think he has the cahones to pull the trigger on 4th down he just didn't think it was the right call to make at that time.

 

[juniorseau55]

Miami should have taken the gamble to go on 4th down when they have a few yards to go. That is how confident I am of our special teams unit.

I think Miami is usualy pretty good at 4th down when they bring a 4 wide receiver set and just throw to a receiver on a underneath route.