5 things to know for Sunday: Jay Ajayi

[DKphin]

You wouldn’t have to talk about Miami RB Jay Ajayi’s fantasy stock long before someone brings up the notion that the vast majority of his 2016 production was tied up in his three huge games. Ajayi ran for 200-plus yards three times in 2016, but only topped 100 yards one other time all season. PFF Senior Fantasy Analyst Scott Barrett investigated that idea, looking at Ajayi’s advanced metrics in and out of those huge games to see whether he’s a smart season-long investment in 2017.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-5-things-to-know-for-sunday-6-11/

 

[Bruzer]

The Article that it links to

https://www.profootballfocus.com/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-jay-ajayis-productive-2016/

My favorite part

Ajayi also led the league in yards after contact per attempt last season. If we remove his three 200-yard games, he still ranks a very respectable ninth. Ajayi also led in missed tackles forced per attempt with 22.3 percent. If we strip away those three games, he actually improves, jumping to 23.4 percent. If we took away any player’s three best games we should expect their numbers to fall, but it’s surprising how well Ajayi fared in this exercise given the current prevailing sentiment among the fantasy community. According to the data, he wasn’t just good in three games, he was great all season – and unlike other running backs, he wasn’t just getting what was blocked for him, he was creating plays on his own.

 

[jlfin]

If you discount his top 3 statistical games, then you should discount his worse 3 statistical games
He earned those 200+ yd games because he broke tackles to make those big runs. They weren't a fluke

 

[Digital]

The analysis of our run game is simple: when we create running lanes Ajayi is do.inant, and when we do not create running lanes, no running back is going to be very successful.

The analysis of What I is similarly straight forward. He breaks tackles at an elite level. He led the league in yardage after contact both of his seasons, one with a few carries and the other as a workhorse back. He is a power back who gets better in the 4th quarter when we are running the ball a lot.

His style is similar to that of Marshawn Lynch, in that both are power backs with good jump-cut ability in the hole to make tackles miss. Both run through arm tackles without losing much momentum, and both are adept at choosing the correct angle to tease defenders into trying to arm tackle them then running through the arm tackle. Both are nifty enough to avoid many big hits and easy tackles. Both drive and fall forward to get the extra yard.

While Beastmode was underappreciated in Buffalo, he became a do.inant league star when he went to Seattle because they built an offense around him and consistently opened running lanes.

Similarly, if the Dolphins can start consistently opening run lanes, then the J-Train can become a do.inant runner and our offense truly blossoms. This will require new and better players at the 3 interior positions.

Isaac Asiata has that kind of potential, and if he delivers on that potential then Ajayi flourishes. Mike Pouncey is our other key. We can make do with one weak run blocking guard. While not ideal, it is manageable. But that just means the other guard and the center need to do the heavy lifting ... literally.

 

[Bruzer]

If you discount his top 3 statistical games, then you should discount his worse 3 statistical games
He earned those 200+ yd games because he broke tackles to make those big runs. They weren't a fluke

I agree completely. I think what they are trying to say is some people like to say well those were his only good games, but if you remove them his numbers are right up there so not a very valid argument.

 

[russianbear]

"if you remove his best performances, you'll see his season wasn't actually as good as we all thought"

well shucks no ****

 

[Bruzer]

"if you remove his best performances, you'll see his season wasn't actually as good as we all thought"

well shucks no ****

Who said he wasn't as good? (other than uninformed fans of other teams) They said opposite that he actually still faired very well with them gone.

 

[miamiron]

If you discount his top 3 statistical games, then you should discount his worse 3 statistical games
He earned those 200+ yd games because he broke tackles to make those big runs. They weren't a fluke

That wouldn't work because in Jay's first 5 games only 31 rushing attempts

What's amazing is Jay did all that in basically 11 games
and with an offensive line that made him #1 in the NFL
getting STUFFED (37 Times)

In my opinion, If Jay improves in the passing game like he did in college
He could be the most complete running back in football

Ajayi was #1 in the running back class with 50 receptions
Ajayi was #1 in the running back class with 535 yards receiving
Ajayi was #1 in yards after the catch with 488 yac.

 

[Pandarilla]

Trying to arm tackle Ajayi is like arm tackling a 230 something pound egg with dreads. You're not going to have a good time.

 

[NY8123]

PFF did a good job explaining that after they removed those three 200+ yard games that Ajayi actually improved in two of the three categories they broke down and that he was great all season despite a terrible run blocking game.

Bottom line equals objective (PFF grades, Stats) + subjective (eyeball, effort) = A+ (he passes both with flying colors).

One great season does not a great career make but one great season must happen on your way to a great career.

 

[VBCheeseGrater]

I get the same feeling with Ajayi this year as when Ricky first joined the team from New Orleans - primed for a huge year.