538 says: Dolphins-Bills Is The Game To Watch In Week 16 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

538 says: Dolphins-Bills Is The Game To Watch In Week 16

DrMultimedia

DrMultimedia

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From 538, we are the game of the week from a stats point of view.


What’s up with Miami? The Dolphins have an average offense and an average defense, and they’ve outscored their opponents this year by a single point (315 to 314). And yet, at 9-5, they’re just a few game outcomes away from the playoffs. If they win in Buffalo, their chances rise to 92 percent; add a Denver loss in Kansas City and they clinch a wild-card spot. If the Dolphins lose this game — and they’re currently 4-point underdogs — their playoff probabilities plummet to 29 percent. No team has a larger potential swing this week.
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They predict we lose this game. However, they have been wrong on almost half the Dolphins games this year as far as picking the win correctly. And in the first Bills game they didn't pick us (by an even wider margin that their forecast for this game).


The fun of probability. Nothing is certain. :)


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dolphins-bills-is-the-game-to-watch-in-week-16/

(sorry if this was already posted)
 
I don't even want to contemplate losing this game.
 
My biggest concern is their ability to play a good game against an above average opponent on the road.
During this big turnaround they have only beaten one team that I would consider decent (San Diego) on the road. Conversely, they have struggled against some doormats like the Rams and the Niners (at home, no less)
In their one chance to make a statement on the road against a team fighting for a playoff spot (Baltimore) they weren't even competitive and got run out of the stadium by halftime.
Buffalo is plenty motivated for this game and has an outside chance of making the playoffs. The Phins better be prepared to play hard and fast from the opening bell.
 
Speaking of probabilities, as a Dolphin fan what seems more likely:
a) We beat the snot out of the Bills and can celebrate X-mas early knowing we've wrapped up (pun) a playoff spot and we start debating on whether or not to rest starters

or

b) we have an excruciating nail biting wait right down to the final moment of week 18.

I'll take any action on (b) happening.
 
Agua said:
Nate Silver had HRC at 92% chance of winning, so F him.
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This is just blatantly false if anything Nate Silver was one of the most cautious pundits saying that a Trump win was possible. He had Trump at about 1:7 odds which was way higher than most


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