88% of Teams That Start 0-2 Miss the Playoffs

[Shouright]

Have you seen what happens to teams that lose the 3rd and 15th games? I bet they normally don't make the playoffs either.

That's an empirical question. You'd have to provide the data on that for us to determine whether it's as strongly predictive of missing the playoffs as losing the first two games.

My sense is that losing the first two games might have a lot more to do with how good a team feels it is and the confidence with which it approaches the rest of its season (as well as how good it is physically), whereas losing the 3rd and 15th games (and not both of the first two) would be much less likely to have such an effect.

Bad teams generally lose a particular game. You can't go the other way and say that teams who lose a particular game in general are bad.

Sure, but the point is that teams that lose their first two games are probably worse than teams that don't lose their first two games but lose two other games.

This really isn't rocket science or doctoral-level statistics. When you look at the standings after the first two games, the teams you see with the "0-2" next to them have a much better chance of being unsuccessful than the others. That's all. Common sense.

 

[GRYPHONK]

Hey, I read somewhere that the team that wins the 20th game of the season wins the SB 100% of the time. I am just saying

These threads are kinda funny. We, just 3 years ago contradicted this thread theory. It's irrelevant. Football is a game where every game is important. Are some games more important that others? Not at first. The only time games become more important is if you don't take care of business in other games. I.E. Had the Phins won last week, this game suddenly isn't as important as it is now. Of course it is now, because we would be 0-2 1 loss in the division and 2 losses in the conference.

it's all relative. But it has nothing to do with starting 0-2 ore 2-0. It's always been about who the losses were against not when you lost.

Like I said, win in week 20 and we are 100% lock to win the SB

 

[Ilovemyfins4eva]

Hey, I read somewhere that the team that wins the 20th game of the season wins the SB 100% of the time. I am just saying

These threads are kinda funny. We, just 3 years ago contradicted this thread theory. It's irrelevant. Football is a game where every game is important. Are some games more important that others? Not at first. The only time games become more important is if you don't take care of business in other games. I.E. Had the Phins won last week, this game suddenly isn't as important as it is now. Of course it is now, because we would be 0-2 1 loss in the division and 2 losses in the conference.

it's all relative. But it has nothing to do with starting 0-2 ore 2-0. It's always been about who the losses were against not when you lost.

Like I said, win in week 20 and we are 100% lock to win the SB

i get what you are trying to say in terms of trying to prove these pcts as bs, but it does mean something.

when you start 0-2, especially in a sport like football where their are only 16 games to begin with, you dig yourself in a deep hole, and give yourself very little margin for error come later in the year.

yes, in 08 we started 0-2 and still won the division. but as we all remember, every single game basically was do or die for us after our 2-4 start, and yet even with winning 9 of our final 10 games, we still needed to win the last week just to make the playoffs, and we had no margin for error because of our slow start.

so yes, while technically we lose today, we can still technically go 14-2, an 0-2 start in a sport like football does mean a lot, and can be a very tough mountain to climb.

 

[Canadianfishfan]

In a 16 game regular season league. Every game is a must win game for any team.

 

[KTOWNFINFAN]

What percentage of teams that start 0-2 get a shot at Andrew Luck??

 

[Wildbill3]

100 percent of teams that go 14-2 make the playoffs.

 

[Wildbill3]

What percentage of teams that start 0-2 get a shot at Andrew Luck??

seriously? after last monday you think qb is our biggest problem?

 

[Markcalius]

That's an empirical question. You'd have to provide the data on that for us to determine whether it's as strongly predictive of missing the playoffs as losing the first two games.

My sense is that losing the first two games might have a lot more to do with how good a team feels it is and the confidence with which it approaches the rest of its season (as well as how good it is physically), whereas losing the 3rd and 15th games (and not both of the first two) would be much less likely to have such an effect.

Sure, but the point is that teams that lose their first two games are probably worse than teams that don't lose their first two games but lose two other games.

This really isn't rocket science or doctoral-level statistics. When you look at the standings after the first two games, the teams you see with the "0-2" next to them have a much better chance of being unsuccessful than the others. That's all. Common sense.

Of course it's an empirical question. Your statistic is based on empirical data. My point is it lacks context unless you can show what the chances are of missing the playoffs if you miss any other combination of two games. If you are going to make the claim that losing the first two games is especially significant, then it is you who should have at least checked that data before you made the claim.

Obviously it is not good to lose the first two games, but I don't believe that that statistic alone is meaningful enough to show that this is a must-win game for the Dolphins. A team only has to win a couple more than half of its games to be in the playoff hunt.

 

[Travis34]

Have you seen what happens to teams that lose the 3rd and 15th games? I bet they normally don't make the playoffs either.

Bad teams generally lose a particular game. You can't go the other way and say that teams who lose a particular game in general are bad.

That doesn't make sense. A team doesn't just lose because its a certain week.

 

[Markcalius]

That doesn't make sense. A team doesn't just lose because its a certain week.

Obviously.

My point is, for any game of the season, a bad team is probably going to lose it, but that doesn't mean that a team that loses any particular game is bad. It doesn't go both ways.

 

[Travis34]

Obviously.

My point is, for any game of the season, a bad team is probably going to lose it, but that doesn't mean that a team that loses any particular game is bad. It doesn't go both ways.

\

Got ya. That is indeed sound logic

 

[KTOWNFINFAN]

seriously? after last monday you think qb is our biggest problem?

Are you joking?? Do you really think Henne can put this team on his shoulders and carry us to the superbowl?? Luck is John Elway, Joe Montana, not good, GREAT. Watch and see. Would I draft him?? LOL I would trade the entire team, ALL 53 players and all my draft picks for Luck. I would start all over and build around him. Mark it down RIGHT NOW. The team that drafts him next year will win a superbowl BEFORE we do. It really is that simple.

 

[Ronnie2.0]

Over the past 20 years, according to Rich Eisen just a minute ago on NFLN.

This is a must-win today folks. Starting the season with two losses in a row at home would be highly demoralizing.

This game hinges on whether we can get pressure on Matt Schaub. The Dolphins' morale in this game is going to hinge on whether the game seems different to them from last week's, and that comes down to whether the opposing quarterback can dissect them with the passing game as Brady did.

If Matt Schaub comes out firing and we have no answer, expect a long day.

If we can hurry him and sack him early, set the tone, and boost our morale, expect a win.

The pass defense, especially the pass rush, in the first quarter alone will tell the tale IMO.

HONESTLY, I just wanna see this team get on a roll like in 08' when towards the end of the season we won like 5 straight games, we started 2-0 last year but surrendered control of the division to pats and jets in those 2 early season home losses, the beautifal thing about the NFL is it truly is a marathon. Today is a must-win though because if they beat the Texans they should beat the browns and go 2-1. Their is no room for error and 0-2 is most likely a death sentance in the AFC EAST....

 

[Shouright]

Of course it's an empirical question. Your statistic is based on empirical data. My point is it lacks context unless you can show what the chances are of missing the playoffs if you miss any other combination of two games. If you are going to make the claim that losing the first two games is especially significant, then it is you who should have at least checked that data before you made the claim.

If 37% of teams make the playoffs in general, of which almost none of them ever has one or fewer losses on the season, and only 12% of teams make the playoffs after losing their first two games, then obviously losing your first two games is more detrimental than losing any other two games.

In other words, 37% of teams make the playoffs after losing at least two games (excluding the ultra-rare 15-1 and 16-0 teams), but only 12% of teams make the playoffs after losing their first two games.

In all but the rarest of rare cases, losing the first two games decreases your chances of making the playoffs by 25% -- highly significant.

And there's your context by the way, which you yourself provided in post #2 of the thread. I'm surprised you didn't make this conclusion yourself, since you were on the right track originally.

 

[Markcalius]

If 37% of teams make the playoffs in general, of which almost none of them ever has one or fewer losses on the season, and only 12% of teams make the playoffs after losing their first two games, then obviously losing your first two games is more detrimental than losing any other two games.

In other words, 37% of teams make the playoffs after losing at least two games (excluding the ultra-rare 15-1 and 16-0 teams), but only 12% of teams make the playoffs after losing their first two games.

In all but the rarest of rare cases, losing the first two games decreases your chances of making the playoffs by 25% -- highly significant.

And there's your context by the way, which you yourself provided in post #2 of the thread. I'm surprised you didn't make this conclusion yourself, since you were on the right track originally.

This is so deeply flawed that it is beyond the realm of a "quick reply." And I suspect other people have lost interest in reading at this point.

37% of teams IN ONE YEAR make the playoffs. That is by NFL rule. Looking back, 12% of teams IN NFL HISTORY who have lost the first two games have gone on to make the playoffs. That doesn't mean that 12% of the teams who lose their first two games are going to MAKE the playoffs every season. And it doesn't indicate anything about the chances of other teams over the course of history who have lost other combinations of games. You can't relate the statistics to each other, because one is "a priori" and the other is based on empirical data.

The rest of your post is nonsensical. If you don't believe me, take a few seasons of data and run the numbers yourself.