88% of Teams That Start 0-2 Miss the Playoffs | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

88% of Teams That Start 0-2 Miss the Playoffs

Markcalius said:
37% of teams IN ONE YEAR make the playoffs. That is by NFL rule. Looking back, 12% of teams IN NFL HISTORY who have lost the first two games have gone on to make the playoffs. That doesn't mean that 12% of the teams who lose their first two games are going to MAKE the playoffs every season.
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I really don't care at this point, but explain why. Why can we not use the fact that 12% of teams who start out at 0-2 make the playoffs, as an indicator of upcoming seasons?? What has changed?? I'm missing your logic. It's kinda like when my brother tries to disprove poker odds by asking what is the odds of the odds holding up?? Uhh the answer is the odds, duh.

If over a period of time the odds say that 12% of teams make the playoffs if they start out 0-2 then unless there is a reason for that to be different,it is a pretty good indicator of things to come.

It really doesn't matter, this team isn't going to be sniffing the playoffs for several years. But I was interested in your argument, or lack there of. lol, j/k
 
Markcalius said:
This is so deeply flawed that it is beyond the realm of a "quick reply." And I suspect other people have lost interest in reading at this point.

37% of teams IN ONE YEAR make the playoffs. That is by NFL rule. Looking back, 12% of teams IN NFL HISTORY who have lost the first two games have gone on to make the playoffs. That doesn't mean that 12% of the teams who lose their first two games are going to MAKE the playoffs every season. And it doesn't indicate anything about the chances of other teams over the course of history who have lost other combinations of games. You can't relate the statistics to each other, because one is "a priori" and the other is based on empirical data.

The rest of your post is nonsensical. If you don't believe me, take a few seasons of data and run the numbers yourself.
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Come on pal, come back to the common-sense reality of the point, and leave your erudite world of statistics. Teams that lose their first two games have a better chance of being bad teams and therefore a better chance of missing the playoffs than teams that don't lose the first two games.

You've taken a simple point and turned it into an intellect show in which you've cast yourself as the star. I could continue to debate you on statistical grounds and continue to disprove your points, but I'll leave it at this, having made the much simpler point several times already. You can continue the intellect show on your own while I watch the game. ;)
 
shouright said:
Come on pal, come back to the common-sense reality of the point, and leave your erudite world of statistics.
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I never disagreed that a team that loses its first two games is less likely to make the playoffs. My point is that your statistic in isolation does not prove that Game 2 is a must-win. I had no choice but to get erudite to try to explain where you were mixing logic.
 
KTOWNFINFAN said:
I really don't care at this point, but explain why. Why can we not use the fact that 12% of teams who start out at 0-2 make the playoffs, as an indicator of upcoming seasons?? What has changed??
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That's not what I was trying to say. I was trying to make a distinction between the fact that 37% of teams necessarily have to make the playoffs every year, while it is not the case that 12% of teams that start 0-2 have to make the playoffs every year just because that is the ratio from 2011 to whatever year they started counting.

I never disagreed that a small percentage of teams that start out 0-2 are going to make the playoffs. I'm just saying if you pick any two games of the season and see how many teams throughout NFL history went to the playoffs after they lost those two games, I think the percentage will be small. How small? I don't know. Without that context, it is hard to say how particularly special going 0-2 is.
 
Markcalius said:
That's not what I was trying to say. I was trying to make a distinction between the fact that 37% of teams necessarily have to make the playoffs every year, while it is not the case that 12% of teams that start 0-2 have to make the playoffs every year just because that is the ratio from 2011 to whatever year they started counting.

I never disagreed that a small percentage of teams that start out 0-2 are going to make the playoffs. I'm just saying if you pick any two games of the season and see how many teams throughout NFL history went to the playoffs after they lost those two games, I think the percentage will be small. How small? I don't know. Without that context, it is hard to say how particularly special going 0-2 is.
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If you don't think the 37% vs. 12% is instructive, we'll have to agree to disagree.
 
Well, looks like we officially have a 12% chance of making the playoffs, as of today.
 
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