A deeper dive into the overall RB market... | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

A deeper dive into the overall RB market...

1972forever said:
In our discussion, I admitted I have no idea how much he would eventually sign a contract for but I think it will likely be closer to $10 million a year instead of the $5-6 million some posters think he will sign for.

While I don’t disagree with you that the RB position is not valued the way it once was. Cook obviously still believes he is one of the top backs in the league and he is willing to see if a team will pay him the money he wants.

We can disagree about this all day but the reality is only Cook and the teams he has talked to know how much he wants and how much they are willing to pay him.

I hope the Dolphins end up signing him for $5-6 million dollars but I will be extremely surprised if he ends up in Miami if that is all they offer him.
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In all honesty, it doesnt matter what Cook thinks his value is and what his production is/was. The market will confirm that.

For arguments sake, check these stats below...

Cook (2022)
- 264 rush attempts, 1,173 yards, 4.4 YPC, 8 TDs
- Wants 10mil

Mostert/Wilson (2022)
- 265 rush attempts, 1,283 yards, 4.8 YPC, 9 TDs
- Getting $4.389 combined cap numbers for 2023

I just dont see what the hype is about. I think the 5-6mil people arent wrong though...
 
srp1979 said:
In all honesty, it doesnt matter what Cook thinks his value is and what his production is/was. The market will confirm that.

For arguments sake, check these stats below...

Cook (2022)
- 264 rush attempts, 1,173 yards, 4.4 YPC, 8 TDs
- Wants 10mil

Mostert/Wilson (2022)
- 265 rush attempts, 1,283 yards, 4.8 YPC, 9 TDs
- Getting $4.389 combined cap numbers for 2023

I just dont see what the hype is about. I think the 5-6mil people arent wrong though...
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Good point. Is the difference the opportunity cost of carrying an extra player on the roster? The average NFL active roster contract is around $4MM.
 
I like Cook but its fairly obvious he is a depreciating asset. If he does not want a team friendly deal, I am more than content to roll that money into next year's cap.

He would be our only true 3 down back but no reason to sign a team toxic contract on a guy whose best years are behind him.
 
Feverdream said:
Wilson is a good RB2, the type of guy who is decent enough and can fill in when your top guy is nicked up. Mostert is a classic, fragile RB3. He's a space back only, he won't break many tackles... he either out jukes you.. or fails. I think Achane is basically Mostert's replacement.

So, no... we don't have a RB1, even factoring in that we run a committee. I wanted Charbonnet... but I understand why we didn't take him. Our aging CBs meant we had to go defense.

I do, however think we have quite a few posters here who really have not accepted that 1) RBs are much less important in the modern NFL and 2) are much too willing to buy in on guys who are more name, than game.

As far as our line goes... you can put me in the 'I think it is a bit underrated' group. Years of poor coaching has led many here to focus more on errors of the past than on actual current performance... the numbers generated by our line weren't bad, and that was with the weirdly high amount of injuries last year.

With a QB who is more of a target than a running threat, and without any sort of a big back, we put up middlin' numbers last year. I can live with that, and I still believe that the path to a better running game runs through passes to RBs and a lot of play-action to slow blitzing.

If I have a complaint about Mostert, it is that as a smallish, fragile guy, he is also a relatively poor receiver. I'm hoping that Achane is an upgrade, though as I've said... he was NOT high on my list for drafting.

If it were me... I'd sign Fournette and try to trade Mostert... even if it did mean eating his signing bonus.
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I disagree about Fournette and Mostert. The biggest factor in FA success on a new team is fit. Mostert fits this system and Fournette doesn't. If you look at Fournette's run style, he's only good running a gap scheme. You put him in our zone and you're setting him up to fail. Or you switch up the OL system and set that group back yet again.
 
rafael said:
I disagree about Fournette and Mostert. The biggest factor in FA success on a new team is fit. Mostert fits this system and Fournette doesn't. If you look at Fournette's run style, he's only good running a gap scheme. You put him in our zone and you're setting him up to fail. Or you switch up the OL system and set that group back yet again.
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Fournette doesn't seem to agree with that, he's been talking us up and would clearly like to come here, but you could be right. I've seen him doing shows on cable and he doesn't come across as being too bright.

If Fournette came to us, he wouldn't be an every down player. He'd be a third down guy.. execute play action, look for a blitzer, if not needed in that capacity... drift out for a pass.

Mostert isn't good at this. He's a lousy pass-blocker (mostly due to size issues) and over his career, he hasn't caught a lot of passes.

Mostert is better on early downs... but I do think Achane is here to replace him.
 
Feverdream said:
Fournette doesn't seem to agree with that, he's been talking us up and would clearly like to come here, but you could be right. I've seen him doing shows on cable and he doesn't come across as being too bright.

If Fournette came to us, he wouldn't be an every down player. He'd be a third down guy.. execute play action, look for a blitzer, if not needed in that capacity... drift out for a pass.

Mostert isn't good at this. He's a lousy pass-blocker (mostly due to size issues) and over his career, he hasn't caught a lot of passes.

Mostert is better on early downs... but I do think Achane is here to replace him.
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I can agree with that. That's why I'm not certain Cook is THE target. *IF* Mcd is after that 3rd down back and a closer in the last 5 minutes, maybe he'll be happy with LF. Personally, I'm not convinced Mcd cares a lot about an every down back UNLESS Cook's ask is seen as reasonable.
 
AquaHawk said:
Good point. Is the difference the opportunity cost of carrying an extra player on the roster? The average NFL active roster contract is around $4MM.
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I guess you could look at it that way, but we would still have 4 RB's on the roster.
 
AquaHawk said:
Good point. Is the difference the opportunity cost of carrying an extra player on the roster? The average NFL active roster contract is around $4MM.
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Good point. So many fail to consider "opportunity cost" when evaluating a decision. It's never a money-only decision. I'll not beat a dead horse with examples, but every extra dollar spent on one decision reduces the amount available for the next one.
 
Feverdream said:
Fournette doesn't seem to agree with that, he's been talking us up and would clearly like to come here, but you could be right. I've seen him doing shows on cable and he doesn't come across as being too bright.

If Fournette came to us, he wouldn't be an every down player. He'd be a third down guy.. execute play action, look for a blitzer, if not needed in that capacity... drift out for a pass.

Mostert isn't good at this. He's a lousy pass-blocker (mostly due to size issues) and over his career, he hasn't caught a lot of passes.

Mostert is better on early downs... but I do think Achane is here to replace him.
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I have a higher opinion of Mostert's pass pro than you. I was impressed by his pass pro here last year. I think that Fournette would be used as your big back. Basically I think he'd compete with Wilson for snaps.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
I can agree with that. That's why I'm not certain Cook is THE target. *IF* Mcd is after that 3rd down back and a closer in the last 5 minutes, maybe he'll be happy with LF. Personally, I'm not convinced Mcd cares a lot about an every down back UNLESS Cook's ask is seen as reasonable.
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I think McD focuses on fit for the system particularly when it comes to the RB position. There were reports pre-draft about how he met with the scouting staff and provided very specific criteria for what he wants in a RB.

In his last interview, Cook specifically said he was a "perfect fit" for the Miami offense. My guess is that his fit being such perfect has been part of the discussion. I think that if this gets done it will be with an incentive laden deal that gives Cook the chance to earn closer to what he's hoping for while keeping the base closer to what Miami is hoping for.
 
Cook is still guaranteed $2MM by Vikings in 2023.

If Miami offered $6MM guaranteed with $2.5MM in performance incentives, he has a pathway to his reported target amount of $10.5MM.

The incentives: 1,500+ all purpose yards, 10+ TDs, take 65%+ of snaps.

Y2 terms could follow similar structure, minus Vikings guarantee, and a smaller Dolphins guarantee.
 
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