A glimpse at Pat White from a statistical point of view

[Rich]

Statistical ranking of College Quarterbacks
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2008/Internet/career/careerPassB15.html
Passing Efficiency:
11. Pat White - 56 TD, 23 INT, 6049 passing YDS, 10.3 Cmp per game, 147.37 Col QB rating, 64.75 cmp %, 123.4 YPG, 4480 rushing yds

Pat White ranked 4th in qb rating among seniors, behind Joe Ganz, Graham Harrell, and Chase Daniel.
Note: Jrs Tim Tebow(2) and Mark Sanchez(8) ranked higher.

Pat White Player details:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/playerDetail.jsp?yr=2008&org=768&player=5
2008 - 974 rushing (5.1 avg), 1842 Passing, 180 for 274 cmp(65.7%), 29 TDs(8 rushing), 7 INT
Total Offense - 2816 YDS

Using an NFL QB rating, this translates to a 99.7 QB rating
note: rushing yards and rushing td's don't count for QB rating (or he'd rank higher). If you were to count each run as a completion, add the yards and tds, the nfl qb rating would be a 108.3.

My comments: Only 3 games with over 200 yards passing this year. 6 games out of 11, with total offense over 200 yards (5 of last 6 games). Only 6 games with 200 yards passing in college (49 games). This is a high-risk, high reward choice. I mean the qb rating rocks... but if my qb puts up 150 yards passing in a game, I'm not getting too excited, and projecting Pat White to all of a sudden hit the nfl and consistantly put up 300 yard games, when he couldn't do so in college... is a gamble.
Note: Pat White's only 300 yard passing game in college, came in his very last game (332 yards).

I see a mistake-free player, a winner, a mobile qb, a guy who is better than his stats, with enourmous upside. He has shown continuous improvement, and played his best ball at the end of his college career. On the other hand, here is a qb that doesn't have the passing yards you want to see. Last 7 games, passing yards were: 174, 121, 219, 122, 143, 141, 332. It's not quite Graham Harrell numbers (5111 passing yards in 2008). It's not quite Jay Fiedler numbers. White will need to improve, if he wants to steal that #2 spot from Henne.

 

[Mr772]

Statistical ranking of College Quarterbacks
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2008/Internet/career/careerPassB15.html
Passing Efficiency:
11. Pat White - 56 TD, 23 INT, 6049 passing YDS, 10.3 Cmp per game, 147.37 Col QB rating, 64.75 cmp %, 123.4 YPG, 4480 rushing yds

Pat White ranked 4th in qb rating among seniors, behind Joe Ganz, Graham Harrell, and Chase Daniel.
Note: Jrs Tim Tebow(2) and Mark Sanchez(8) ranked higher.

Pat White Player details:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/playerDetail.jsp?yr=2008&org=768&player=5
2008 - 974 rushing (5.1 avg), 1842 Passing, 180 for 274 cmp(65.7%), 29 TDs(8 rushing), 7 INT
Total Offense - 2816 YDS

Using an NFL QB rating, this translates to a 99.7 QB rating
note: rushing yards and rushing td's don't count for QB rating (or he'd rank higher). If you were to count each run as a completion, add the yards and tds, the nfl qb rating would be a 108.3.

My comments: Only 3 games with over 200 yards passing this year. 6 games out of 11, with total offense over 200 yards (5 of last 6 games). Only 6 games with 200 yards passing in college (49 games). This is a high-risk, high reward choice. I mean the qb rating rocks... but if my qb puts up 150 yards passing in a game, I'm not getting too excited, and projecting Pat White to all of a sudden hit the nfl and consistantly put up 300 yard games, when he couldn't do so in college... is a gamble.
Note: Pat White's only 300 yard passing game in college, came in his very last game (332 yards).

I see a mistake-free player, a winner, a mobile qb, a guy who is better than his stats, with enourmous upside. He has shown continuous improvement, and played his best ball at the end of his college career. On the other hand, here is a qb that doesn't have the passing yards you want to see. Last 7 games, passing yards were: 174, 121, 219, 122, 143, 141, 332. It's not quite Graham Harrell numbers (5111 passing yards in 2008). It's not quite Jay Fiedler numbers. White will need to improve, if he wants to steal that #2 spot from Henne.

Rich I'm curious if you have ever seen a Mountaineers game with Pat at QB? This is a rushing team, successful rushing teams don't normally put up 300 yards passing a game.

Think of it like big Ben's first year with Pitt, I think he averaged around 150 yards a game and they ran most of the time.

 

[ArmyFin7]

I like the breakdown, but it still seems flawed to me. Pennington only threw for over 300 yards twice last season and he doesnt have the legs that White has. If it was this easy to figure out there wouldn't be nearly as many QB busts in the NFL. The reality of it is, nobody knows how he will do in the NFL. Just like Stafford and Sanchez, except White wont be asked to start day 1 and he costs a lot less money.

 

[Rich]

Rich I'm curious if you have ever seen a Mountaineers game with Pat at QB? This is a rushing team, successful rushing teams don't normally put up 300 yards passing a game.

Think of it like big Ben's first year with Pitt, I think he averaged around 150 yards a game and they ran most of the time.

It is strange that you cite big Ben, one of the great statistical players to come out of college:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00.htm
2003 - 342 of 495 (69.1% cmp), 37 TD, 10 int, 320 Yds/game

I saw White in a game or 2 this year; he looked good.

"This is a rushing team, successful rushing teams don't normally put up 300 yards passing a game."
-- Correct, he is a product of his system. I would argue that one rushing yard is worth 2 passing yards (as you keep moving the chains, create a balanced attack, and create better passing oppourtunities).

Michael Vick is the more fair comparison (ignoring the dog thing). Some statistics can be ignored, or explained, other numbers are important as well. Completion Percentage and Passer Rating shouldn't be ignored, though. My memory is Joey Harrington had a 58% completion percentage in college. He had a 58% completion percentage in the NFL.

Steve Young, Ben Roethlisberger were very accurate in college, and very accurate in the NFL.

Pat White has over 10,000 yards Total Offense... only a few guys do that each year. He has a high completion percentage, won a bunch of games, etc... I'm happy we got him; he's not Jay Fiedler (who I mentioned in the last post)... but he may take some time to develop. Kiper called him raw, while Jaworski said he had great mechanics. There both right from a certain perspective. Kiper calling him raw means low passer yards, Jaworski saying good mechanics means high passer rating.

 

[Rich]

It is strange that you cite big Ben, one of the great statistical players to come out of college:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00.htm
2003 - 342 of 495 (69.1% cmp), 37 TD, 10 int, 320 Yds/game

I saw White in a game or 2 this year; he looked good.

"This is a rushing team, successful rushing teams don't normally put up 300 yards passing a game."
-- Correct, he is a product of his system. I would argue that one rushing yard is worth 2 passing yards (as you keep moving the chains, create a balanced attack, and create better passing oppourtunities).

Michael Vick is the more fair comparison (ignoring the dog thing). Some statistics can be ignored, or explained, other numbers are important as well. Completion Percentage and Passer Rating shouldn't be ignored, though. My memory is Joey Harrington had a 58% completion percentage in college. He had a 58% completion percentage in the NFL.

Steve Young, Ben Roethlisberger were very accurate in college, and very accurate in the NFL.

Pat White has over 10,000 yards Total Offense... only a few guys do that each year. He has a high completion percentage, won a bunch of games, etc... I'm happy we got him; he's not Jay Fiedler (who I mentioned in the last post)... but he may take some time to develop. Kiper called him raw, while Jaworski said he had great mechanics. There both right from a certain perspective. Kiper calling him raw means low passer yards, Jaworski saying good mechanics means high passer rating.

********
"it was this easy to figure out there wouldn't be nearly as many QB busts in the NFL."
-- Agreed. There are good reasons why "Joe Ganz, Graham Harrell, and Chase Daniel" were selected after Pat White. Statistics almost never tell the whole story. But they usually tell part of the story, and are worth looking at.

As mentioned, this doesn't tell you about the rushing attack of West Virginia, or the quality of receivers and o-line there. It doesn't tell you about his arm strength. There are a lot of things it doesn't tell you.

 

[Pinkboy]

People need to look at how White played in big games. Look at his numbers there. If you include the Senior Bowl, he was the MVP in 4 of his 5 bowl games. And he won all 5 games. That is unprecedented for a QB and never done before in NCAA history.

For all the people who say he didn't run a pro style offense in college, a lot of you are forgetting that West Virginia changed their offense and went to more of a Pro Set last year, with I formations. And Pat White thrived in it.

Go to WQAM and listen to the archived interview with West Virginia's coach Bill Stewart, he'll tell you all about it

http://wqam.com/index.php?page=347

Also notice how when White missed a few games to injury, the team totally stunk up the field and lost big. Their record with him in there is very good. White was the main reason that team won as many games as they did, and won all those bowl games. West Virginians don't hail White as the black Jesus for nothing. The kid owned the state and was loved there like a very generous King. Something you very rarely see in college sports.

 

[84needs1000yds]

I always love when you post!

I have seen Pat White play in college quite a bit, very often actually... you are correct he is a tremendous athlete, who hardly turns over the ball and only knows how to win.

Pat White is not going to come in and be the starting QB for the Fins right away, the Fins have Penny for this year. And IMO, he is not looked at to be the Fins starting QB in the future. There are endless possibilities that the Fins can utilize him and his abilities! I think he is going to be expected to take 7-10 maybe more direct snaps a game, a few may be in traditional QB sets, others will be as a spread QB (which he ran in college) and as the wild cat trigger man. He also can line up in the slot as a traditional receiver, he can line up as RB in the same way. Or he can do jet sweeps, HB passes, WR reverse passes, screens... etc

Bottom line Jeff Ireland said he will play QB, and he will but in this league you can't run every play with him behind center (I don't think). But, where ever he is on the field he is a threat and the defenses will have to account for him all the time and that makes the Fins offense AMAZING!!!!

 

[flynryan15]

What you need to take into consideration here is his attempts. In a lot of games they barely threw the ball. In the White Slaton era they were getting so many homerun's with White and Slaton's legs it was not worth the risk.

Trust me when they needed to throw it he did it well! Look at the 07 Gator Bowl they were down 17 in the fourth and he had 2 passing TD's and a rushng td. His final game in college which was the Meineke Car Care Bowl he was 26-32 for 332yd and 3 tds.

What I like about him is my heart doesn't jump in my throat when he throws the ball! He makes sound decisions and throws a catchable pass!

 

[Mr. Limpet]

You guys have to remember that WVU had a new offensive coordinator and new offense this year that wanted to emphasize the pass more.

White was finally getting comfortable with it towards the end of the season.