dolphan39
Maria & LauRen Aha!
http://www.jaguars.com/Story/3502.asp
The question for dolphans is how well does that extend to pick #20 if Andrews is there :hmmm:
A great argument for drafting an OT in rd 1
- Thread starter dolphan39
- Start date
http://www.jaguars.com/Story/3502.asp
The question for dolphans is how well does that extend to pick #20 if Andrews is there :hmmm:
finsnchips
2005 FinHeaven GM League Champion!!
It suggests that he won't be there at #20.
Is ok if he's not there as we're gonna take Smiley anyway...lol
Ozzy rules!!
Ozzy rules!!
finsnchips
2005 FinHeaven GM League Champion!!
Smiley isn't value at 20, IMO.
If he's not there then we will draft D.
If he's not there then we will draft D.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
I think you can extend it to pick #20 in this case with Shawn Andrews but only with Andrews because if it weren't for the character issues involved in him missing the Independance Bowl and not even flying with his team then he would be a sure-fire top 15 pick.
The natural draft groupings that you see, they currently group Gallery and Andrews together as far as tackles go, then from there there's Carey who is a tweener...and then the rest of the bunch including Nat Dorsey and Jacob Rogers etc. I think these natural groupings are more indicative than a set number as far as draft position goes.
But you know what...Vic stopped too far short. What happens if you extended the thing to just "first round tackles"?
In 1995 there were actually FIVE tackles taken but the top two were definitely Tony Boselli (#2) and Korey Stringer (#24...fell further than expected, and his selection spurred a run on the rest of the OTs). After that it was Billy Milner (ugh..#25), Blake Brockermeyer (#29), and Trazelle Jenkins (#31). Brockermeyer at one time was a pretty good LT for the Bears until injuries really started to catch up with him and he got old. Boselli was inhuman. Korey Stringer was a FANTASTIC tackle, god rest his soul, before he was cut down at such an early age. Milner and Jenkins...ugh. Who knows. Do you honestly see these guys being similar to Shawn Andrews' situation tho?
In 1996 there were another 5 tackles taken in the first round. The top group was definitely Jon Ogden and Willie Anderson tho...and Ogden is inhuman while Anderson is probably the best OT you never hear about because he's played for the Bungles for so long. Then, like in 1995, a late first round run on the rest of the guys began...John Michels (#27), Jamain Stephens (#29), and Andre Johnson (#30) got taken...and not another tackle was taken until the 3rd round.
In 1997 there were only three tackles taken, no doubt somewhat in response to how the late group of first rounders the past two years took the NFL by storm (lol). The top group was obviously Orlando Pace (#1) and Walter Jones (#6)...probably the two best active LTs in the game right now (Ogden is slipping just a little). But truth be told Tarik Glenn was not far behind them and considered highly I remember, he got taken at #19 and has been a superb LT for Peyton Manning since the day Manning got into the league (reminds me of Webb-Marino).
In 1998 Kyle Turley (#7) and Tra Thomas (#11) were the top guys definitely and both became dominant RTs in this league. I remember the next group of guys were kind of considered along with each other...including Mo Collins (#23), Victor Riley (#27), Anthony Clement and Flozell Adams (2nd rounders). Riley and Collins have been very good, Collins able to play all over the OL, Adams got the franchise tag slapped on him, and Clement...well he's been starting at RT for the Cardinals since the day he was drafted I believe, and I'm honestly not sure how good he is but I do know he's kept the starting job for 5 years so that has to be something.
1999 is where Vic's reasoning gets a little hazy. He conveniently draws the line at 15, which wonder of wonders happens to include John Tait but not include Matt Stinchcomb (#18), LJ Shelton (#21), Luke Petitgout (#19), and Aaron Gibson (#27). But I remember this draft, and though Tait went first (#14), he was kind of a "one of the group" guy along with Stinchcomb, LJ Shelton, Gibson, and Jon Jansen (who inexplicably lasted until the top of round 2!). Petitgout was a late riser, a real surprise pick when the Giants took him at #19 (Giants fans, as usual, booed the pick). The concensus rankings tended to have Tait, Stinchcomb, Shelton, Jansen, then Gibson as the ranked order. I remember that year during the draft they got Anthony Munoz to evaluate those 5 guys. Chris Terry (top of round 2, before Jansen) was also a late riser but was a solid RT for the Seahawks this year. Jansen of course is awesome. Shelton has shifted around but played LT for the Cards this year. Petitgout was a really good RT (better than Wade) and was so good he moved to LT where he got a big contract. Stinchcomb never lived up to his billing...as he's shifted all over the place in Oaktown. The scary part is Gibson, because this is the guy that draws the most comparisons to Andrews. But I will say that where Gibson was considered among a group of five guys, Andrews is considered along with just himself and Robert Gallery...so its a different situation. Hard to explain.
Another scarier situation is 2000....where Chris Samuels was all by his lonesome at the top, but then Stockar McDougle and Chris McIntosh were taken at #20 and #22. Samuels of course is awesome, but McDougle particularly compares with Andrews, and the situation in general compares favorably with the Gallery, Andrews, Carey thing. Samuels was the obvious king of the pack like Gallery, and McDougle was considered a great RT candidate, like Andrews, and fell down to pick #20...and McIntosh I'm not sure what happened but he's done virtually nothing.
In 2001 Leonard Davis was the king of the pack definitely but Kenyatta Walker and Jeff Backus were both highly thought of...and Walker ended up going to the Bucs where he's definitely struggled his whole career...but Backus has been ok for the Lions, nothing special I think just ok. Davis has been disappointing...he looked All-World like he could play RT or LT but he's been a disappointment unable to unseat Clement at RT or Shelton at LT. He's been playing Guard where he's been pretty good.
2002 Bryant McKinnie and Mike Williams definitely kings of the pack, and they will be real good....then Levi Jones was considered a mid-first rounder or maybe a little later but the Bengals took him a bit early but he was still considered a solid first rounder along with Williams and McKinnie. If I remember right from there Columbo at #29 was a stretch. He probably should have been a 2nd rounder like Mike Pearson.
And of course that brings us to Jordan Gross (awesome at RT, about to play LT), Kwame Harris (also set to start at LT this year), and George Foster (don't know his situation but since Ephraim Salaam left the Broncos I'm guessing he's set to start at LT). The jury is still out on them but I remember Jordan Gross was king of the pack, with Kwame Harris and Eric Steinbach behind him (Steinbach a tweener, played well for the Bengals this year at LG), and Foster was a guy that was like an early 2nd round guy that ended up taken a bit high because the Broncos really liked him for some reason.
So that wraps up the tackles drafted in the first round. Its interesting how heavily loaded the top 15 has been but you have to worry cuz we pick at #20 and if Andrews somehow made it to #20 we'd have to wonder whether he's another Turley/Thomas/Williams guy or if he's another McDougle/Gibson.
Think about this though. Of the 39 guys I just talked about I would call about 17 of them really really successful picks (with a few more 2003 and 2002 picks still having the opportunity to prove themselves to be good selections). Of the 22 guys left, the pre-John Fox Panthers, Raiders, Cardinals, and Lions account for like 10 or 11 of those picks. The Seahawks also tend to draft a lot of linemen early and the only reason I didn't include them is cuz they did manage to hit on Walter Jones (even though they missed on Todd Weiner and Chris McIntosh). So basically you have a few teams who are in the habit of taking tackles early, and some of them are just cursed...either A) they aren't good at selecting the right ones, or B) they do not develop them the right way. This seems particularly true for the Cardinals who have hit and missed on LJ Shelton, Anthony Clement, and now so far Leonard Davis...as well as the Lions who have drafted Stockar McDougle, Aaron Gibson, Jeff Backus, and Juan Roque either in the 1st round or the early 2nd round, and they've gotten only a servicible Jeff Backus out of it.
Then again Miami's own recent record of high OL is just Todd Wade and Billy Milner. One wasn't worth the dung scrapings off a farmer's boot, and the other wasn't worth the $10 million signing bonus he got from the Texans.
The natural draft groupings that you see, they currently group Gallery and Andrews together as far as tackles go, then from there there's Carey who is a tweener...and then the rest of the bunch including Nat Dorsey and Jacob Rogers etc. I think these natural groupings are more indicative than a set number as far as draft position goes.
But you know what...Vic stopped too far short. What happens if you extended the thing to just "first round tackles"?
In 1995 there were actually FIVE tackles taken but the top two were definitely Tony Boselli (#2) and Korey Stringer (#24...fell further than expected, and his selection spurred a run on the rest of the OTs). After that it was Billy Milner (ugh..#25), Blake Brockermeyer (#29), and Trazelle Jenkins (#31). Brockermeyer at one time was a pretty good LT for the Bears until injuries really started to catch up with him and he got old. Boselli was inhuman. Korey Stringer was a FANTASTIC tackle, god rest his soul, before he was cut down at such an early age. Milner and Jenkins...ugh. Who knows. Do you honestly see these guys being similar to Shawn Andrews' situation tho?
In 1996 there were another 5 tackles taken in the first round. The top group was definitely Jon Ogden and Willie Anderson tho...and Ogden is inhuman while Anderson is probably the best OT you never hear about because he's played for the Bungles for so long. Then, like in 1995, a late first round run on the rest of the guys began...John Michels (#27), Jamain Stephens (#29), and Andre Johnson (#30) got taken...and not another tackle was taken until the 3rd round.
In 1997 there were only three tackles taken, no doubt somewhat in response to how the late group of first rounders the past two years took the NFL by storm (lol). The top group was obviously Orlando Pace (#1) and Walter Jones (#6)...probably the two best active LTs in the game right now (Ogden is slipping just a little). But truth be told Tarik Glenn was not far behind them and considered highly I remember, he got taken at #19 and has been a superb LT for Peyton Manning since the day Manning got into the league (reminds me of Webb-Marino).
In 1998 Kyle Turley (#7) and Tra Thomas (#11) were the top guys definitely and both became dominant RTs in this league. I remember the next group of guys were kind of considered along with each other...including Mo Collins (#23), Victor Riley (#27), Anthony Clement and Flozell Adams (2nd rounders). Riley and Collins have been very good, Collins able to play all over the OL, Adams got the franchise tag slapped on him, and Clement...well he's been starting at RT for the Cardinals since the day he was drafted I believe, and I'm honestly not sure how good he is but I do know he's kept the starting job for 5 years so that has to be something.
1999 is where Vic's reasoning gets a little hazy. He conveniently draws the line at 15, which wonder of wonders happens to include John Tait but not include Matt Stinchcomb (#18), LJ Shelton (#21), Luke Petitgout (#19), and Aaron Gibson (#27). But I remember this draft, and though Tait went first (#14), he was kind of a "one of the group" guy along with Stinchcomb, LJ Shelton, Gibson, and Jon Jansen (who inexplicably lasted until the top of round 2!). Petitgout was a late riser, a real surprise pick when the Giants took him at #19 (Giants fans, as usual, booed the pick). The concensus rankings tended to have Tait, Stinchcomb, Shelton, Jansen, then Gibson as the ranked order. I remember that year during the draft they got Anthony Munoz to evaluate those 5 guys. Chris Terry (top of round 2, before Jansen) was also a late riser but was a solid RT for the Seahawks this year. Jansen of course is awesome. Shelton has shifted around but played LT for the Cards this year. Petitgout was a really good RT (better than Wade) and was so good he moved to LT where he got a big contract. Stinchcomb never lived up to his billing...as he's shifted all over the place in Oaktown. The scary part is Gibson, because this is the guy that draws the most comparisons to Andrews. But I will say that where Gibson was considered among a group of five guys, Andrews is considered along with just himself and Robert Gallery...so its a different situation. Hard to explain.
Another scarier situation is 2000....where Chris Samuels was all by his lonesome at the top, but then Stockar McDougle and Chris McIntosh were taken at #20 and #22. Samuels of course is awesome, but McDougle particularly compares with Andrews, and the situation in general compares favorably with the Gallery, Andrews, Carey thing. Samuels was the obvious king of the pack like Gallery, and McDougle was considered a great RT candidate, like Andrews, and fell down to pick #20...and McIntosh I'm not sure what happened but he's done virtually nothing.
In 2001 Leonard Davis was the king of the pack definitely but Kenyatta Walker and Jeff Backus were both highly thought of...and Walker ended up going to the Bucs where he's definitely struggled his whole career...but Backus has been ok for the Lions, nothing special I think just ok. Davis has been disappointing...he looked All-World like he could play RT or LT but he's been a disappointment unable to unseat Clement at RT or Shelton at LT. He's been playing Guard where he's been pretty good.
2002 Bryant McKinnie and Mike Williams definitely kings of the pack, and they will be real good....then Levi Jones was considered a mid-first rounder or maybe a little later but the Bengals took him a bit early but he was still considered a solid first rounder along with Williams and McKinnie. If I remember right from there Columbo at #29 was a stretch. He probably should have been a 2nd rounder like Mike Pearson.
And of course that brings us to Jordan Gross (awesome at RT, about to play LT), Kwame Harris (also set to start at LT this year), and George Foster (don't know his situation but since Ephraim Salaam left the Broncos I'm guessing he's set to start at LT). The jury is still out on them but I remember Jordan Gross was king of the pack, with Kwame Harris and Eric Steinbach behind him (Steinbach a tweener, played well for the Bengals this year at LG), and Foster was a guy that was like an early 2nd round guy that ended up taken a bit high because the Broncos really liked him for some reason.
So that wraps up the tackles drafted in the first round. Its interesting how heavily loaded the top 15 has been but you have to worry cuz we pick at #20 and if Andrews somehow made it to #20 we'd have to wonder whether he's another Turley/Thomas/Williams guy or if he's another McDougle/Gibson.
Think about this though. Of the 39 guys I just talked about I would call about 17 of them really really successful picks (with a few more 2003 and 2002 picks still having the opportunity to prove themselves to be good selections). Of the 22 guys left, the pre-John Fox Panthers, Raiders, Cardinals, and Lions account for like 10 or 11 of those picks. The Seahawks also tend to draft a lot of linemen early and the only reason I didn't include them is cuz they did manage to hit on Walter Jones (even though they missed on Todd Weiner and Chris McIntosh). So basically you have a few teams who are in the habit of taking tackles early, and some of them are just cursed...either A) they aren't good at selecting the right ones, or B) they do not develop them the right way. This seems particularly true for the Cardinals who have hit and missed on LJ Shelton, Anthony Clement, and now so far Leonard Davis...as well as the Lions who have drafted Stockar McDougle, Aaron Gibson, Jeff Backus, and Juan Roque either in the 1st round or the early 2nd round, and they've gotten only a servicible Jeff Backus out of it.
Then again Miami's own recent record of high OL is just Todd Wade and Billy Milner. One wasn't worth the dung scrapings off a farmer's boot, and the other wasn't worth the $10 million signing bonus he got from the Texans.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
So the moral of the story is, if the Lions express interest in Andrews...stay away.
BLITZKRIEG
~LACUNA LEGIONS~
Why isn't Smiley value at #20???....
We need a solid RG desperately, and he's one of them. Passing on him based on "value" would be foolish IMO. Take the player you need the most, and leave nothing to question IMO...
If Rick takes any defensive player at #20, we'll know that regardless of the front office shuffle, he's not in-charge of the draft. He should also be hammered very hard if he goes defense in round one. It would be a very foolish decision IMO...
With the amount of offensive talent this year, and the chances we have at landing an immediate contributer in round one, why would you even consider taking a defensive player???
Our defense is fine "as is" IMO. Our offense isn't....
PHINZ RULE!!!
irate:LarryFinFan
Left So Fla, never the Fins...
It really depends on where RS really thinks the OL is now...He might think that with Randall, we will be ok and sumize that a #20 pick for Smiley is too much of a reach. It will really depend on who else is available at the time too. He may have Grove rated about the same as Smiley and trade down a few spots, if he can. He may have Carey rated up that high. I personally think that Smiley is close to #20, but the football icons don't like to draft guards real high. The advantage an Andrews or Carey gives you is that they can play G or T...I'm not so sure about Smiley playing tackle. And don't kid yourself, we could use a S or DT. A DT makes some sense, if a highly rated guy is available for us because of Bowens and Chesters ages and because a DT could come in and play a lot in the DT rotation (probably 30-40% of the plays) and extend our defense's effectiveness out longer....AFterall, our D is predicated on the 2 guys in the middle getting the push, allowing the ends to go after the QB and freeing ZT from linemen getting to him so that he can flow to the play....
Why would we know RS isn't in charge if he goes D in round 1? B/c he doesn't agree with you? OL in this draft sucks. After the first 2, OL is a reach in the first. Many people feel this way.
By the way, OL will be really strong in next year's draft, on par with this year's WR draft.
By the way, OL will be really strong in next year's draft, on par with this year's WR draft.
BLITZKRIEG
~LACUNA LEGIONS~
Because only a fool would take a defensive player in round one IMO. Rick is no fool. He wants offensive players, and everyone knows it....
Dave has been the fool for taking defensive players like LB E. Moore, and DB J. Fletcher over the last two drafts. Both were a waste thus far, and adding other one would only prove that Rick is not in-charge IMO....
Rick is drafting offense in round one. If he doesn't, I'll be very shocked!!!:eek:
PHINZ RULE!!!
irate:finsnchips
2005 FinHeaven GM League Champion!!
I would be prepared to be shocked then.
I think Andrews is the only Offensive player that Rick will look at if we stay at 20. (of course, this is assuming that Manning, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Fitzgerald or Gallery don't fall).
We may well trade down and pick up Smiley, Carey or Grove.
But assuming we stay at 20, it is very possible that we draft D.
I think Andrews is the only Offensive player that Rick will look at if we stay at 20. (of course, this is assuming that Manning, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Fitzgerald or Gallery don't fall).
We may well trade down and pick up Smiley, Carey or Grove.
But assuming we stay at 20, it is very possible that we draft D.
BLITZKRIEG
~LACUNA LEGIONS~
So who's worth drafting at #20 on defense???...
The only positions I could see us drafting defense are at LB, and possibly S or DT. How many of them are worth the #20 pick???...
Maybe LB Vilma, or DT Starks, but how desperate are we in those areas???....As desperate as we are along the OL???....
PHINZ RULE!!!:cpatch:
LarryFinFan
Left So Fla, never the Fins...
You're right, RS is no fool, IMO. That means that if he can't trade down, and a top notch O player is not available, he'll go defense in a heartbeat...doesn't mean he is a fool if he picks D....It means it was the best pick he thought of at that time with the circumstances he has to deal with. There is too much we don't see until after the draft as to what is happening with trade offers, who is on the team's board, etc...That blanket statement is kinda foolish, but is your opinion and that's ok with me, I just disagree....
BLITZKRIEG
~LACUNA LEGIONS~
With zero picks in the second round, Rick would be an idiot taking any defensive player in round one IMO...
WE NEED OFFENSE!!!
PHINZ RULE!!!:cpatch:
WE NEED OFFENSE!!!
PHINZ RULE!!!:cpatch:
feelthepain
☠️ Banned ☠️
Then if Andrews and Gallery are both gone by twenty then Rick IMO, has no choice but to trade down because we would be stupid to pick any other G or T at the 20th pick, so If no one is willing to deal the only other choice is D at 20.