A how to guide on projecting College QB's

[CpuFan]

If I were to rank this years 2008 QB's this is how I would do it in this system:

1.Brain Brohmn played in 44 games he att 1185 passes and he completed 780 for a completion percentage of 65.8 %.

2. Josh Johnson played in 42 games he att 1065 passes and he completed 724for a completion percentage of 67.9 %.

3. Andre Woodson played in 44 games he att 1278 passes and he completed 791 for a completion percentage of 61.8 %.

4. Chad Henne played in 47 games he att 1387 passes and he completed 838 for a completion percentage of 60.4 %.

5. Matt Ryan played in 43 games he att 1347 passes and he completed 807 for a completion percentage of 59.9 %.

6. Eric Ainge played in 43 games he att 1210 passes and he completed 733 for a completion percentage of 60.5 %.

7. Colt Brennan played in 38 games he att 1584 passes and he completed 1115 for a completion percentage of 70.3 %.

8. John Davis Booty played in 38 games he att 832 passes and he completed 518 for a completion percentage of 62.2 %.

9. Kevin O' Connel played in 39 games he att 1151 passes and he completed 664 for a completion percentage of 57.6 %.

10. Joe Flacco played in 29 games he att 942 passes and he completed 596 for a completion percentage of 63.2 %.

 

[adamprez2003]

Well it is easy for someone to just read something for 1 min and say oh that is hilarious, or what a piece of junk.

So I will tell you what I will do. I am going to go back 10 years and check it out, why not? I never said it was the Holy Grail. if you assumed that then you were mistaken. I am just saying it could be a good indicator or if you will, it maybe another way to determine QB success ratios.

What I did do was ask you supposed Draft GuRu's to check it out. What, You don't want to? Ok no problem. I will, and I will let you know.

As for the orginal writer, he said he went back ten years. At least he tried, what it took you guys 1 minute and 30 seconds? LOL.

LOL. Touche :up:Sorry didnt mean to come down as hard on this as it probably came off. Stats when used in conjunction with film review and analyzing all the factors that effect a QBs performance are fine. There are a lot of people on Finheaven who only use stats to discuss players. Mistakenly assumed you were one of those

From a stats point this is a very good article. Nice work digging it up

 

[CpuFan]

LOL. Touche :up:Sorry didnt mean to come down as hard on this as it probably came off. Stats when used in conjunction with film review and analyzing all the factors that effect a QBs performance are fine. There are a lot of people on Finheaven who only use stats to discuss players. Mistakenly assumed you were one of those

From a stats point this is a very good article. Nice work digging it up

Thank you :)

 

[CpuFan]

Here are the rankings for the 2001, 2002 and the 2003 NFL Drafts:

2001 draft

1. Chris Weinke played in 35 games he att 1107 passes and he completed 650for a completion percentage of 58.7 %.

2. Drew Brees played in 26 games he att 1678 passes and he completed 1026 for a completion percentage of 61.1%.

3. Quincy Carter played in 29 games he att 853 passes and he completed 483 for a completion percentage of 59.7 %

4. Sage Rosenfels played in 29 games he att 587 passes and he completed 306 for a completion percentage of 52.1 %.

5. Michael Vick played in 20 games he att 313 passes and he completed 177 for a completion percentage of 56.5 %.

6. A.J. Feeley played in 22 games he att 282 passes and he completed 149 for a completion percentage of 52.8 %.

2002 draft

1. David Garrard played in 42 games he att 1169 passes and he completed 666 for a completion percentage of 56.9 %.

2. Josh McCown played in 35 games he att 1093 passes and he completed 599 for a completion percentage of 54.8 %.

3. Patrick Ramsey played in 32 games he att 1355 passes and he completed 798 for a completion percentage of 58.8 %.

4. David Carr played in 26 games he att 934 passes and he completed 587 for a completion percentage of 62.8 %.

5. Joey Harrington played in 28 games he att 928 passes and he completed 512 for a completion percentage of 55.1 %.

2003 draft

1. Carson Palmer played in 44 games he att 1569 passes and he completed 927 for a completion percentage of 59.0 %.

2. Byron Leftwich played in 36 games he att 1442 passes and he completed 939 for a completion percentage of 65.1 %.

3. Rex Grossman played in 31 games he att 1110 passes and he completed 677 for a completion percentage of 60.9 %.

4. Chris Simms played in 32 games he att 911 passes and he completed 535 for a completion percentage of 58.7 %.

5. Kyle Boller played in 31 games he att 1301 passes and he completed 622 for a completion percentage of 47.8 %.

You can definately see the tend by now! It shows that almost all of the mistakes, were made when coaches were WoWed and overlooked the body of work the players put in, verses big game peformances and combine results.

 

[fishypete]

The secret is there's no secret....no sure thing....no scheme....just luck. For every Manning...there's a Ryan Leaf. The closest item is to select a QB that you feel may fit your offensive scheme...and seems to be a true leader in the huddle.

 

[CpuFan]

Here are the stats for 2004, 2005 and 2006:

NFL Draft 2004:

1. Philip Rivers played in 51 games he att 1710 passes and he completed 1147 for a completion percentage of 67.0%.

2. Ben Roethlisberger played in 38 games he att 1304 passes and he completed 854 for a completion percentage of 65.4%.

3. Eli Manning played in 37 games he att 1363 passes and he completed 829 for a completion percentage of 60.8%.

4. Matt Schaub played in 28 games he att 1069 passes and he completed 716 for a completion percentage of 66.9%.

5. Jeff Smoker played in 24 games he att 662 passes and he completed 383 for a completion percentage of 57.8%.

6. J.P. Losman played in 25 games he att 987 passes and he completed 570 for a completion percentage of 57.7%.

NFL Draft 2005:

1. Jason Campbell played in 39 games he att 854 passes and he completed 552 for a completion percentage of 64.6%.

2. Derek Anderson played in 38 games he att 1515 passes and he completed 768 for a completion percentage of 50.6%.

3. Charlie Frye played in 46 games he att 1436 passes and he completed 753 for a completion percentage of 51.8%.

4. Alex Smith played in 22 games he att 587 passes and he completed 389 for a completion percentage of 66.2%.

5. Aaron Rodgers played in 22 games he att 665 passes and he completed 424 for a completion percentage of 63.7%.

NFL Draft 2006:

1. Matt Leinart played in 39 games he att 1245 passes and he completed 807 for a completion percentage of 64.8 %.

2. Jay Cutler played in 45 games he att 1242 passes and he completed 710 for a completion percentage of 57.1%.

3. Bruce Gradkowski played in 36 games he att 1123 passes and he completed 766 for a completion percentage of 68.2%.

4. Vince Young played in 32 games he att 718 passes and he completed 444 for a completion percentage of 61.8%.

5. Kellen Clemens played in 36 games he att 1005 passes and he completed 13 for a completion percentage of 60.9%.

6. Tarvaris Jackson played in 37 games he att 985 passes and he completed 537 for a completion percentage of 54.5%.

7. Brodie Croyle played in 26 games he att 869 passes and he completed 488 for a completion percentage of 56.1%.6

Ok so what does this all mean? It means that there is definately a relationship between the number of games played and the number of completions a QB throws. The more games that are played balances out the completion percentage to give you a better idea of how a QB will play. Why? Because over time you get a better idea of how good the QB is and it is not based on work out warrior stats or one year wonders.

By these results I say no to Joe Flacco and yes to Brian Brohmn, Josh Johnson, or Andre Johnson.

 

[adamprez2003]

Shouldnt you include all the QBs drafted every year instead of just the ones who made it. There are usually 10 to 15 QBs drafted each year yet your lists tend to go five deep. Just to make sure that some 5th round bust wasnt the number one QB in the statistics

 

[adamprez2003]

Here's 1990's draft

11Jeff GeorgeIllinoisIndianapolis Colts
17Andre WareHoustonDetroit Lions
359Tom HodsonLouisiana StateNew England Patriots
363Peter Tom WillisFlorida StateChicago Bears
370Neil O'DonnellMarylandPittsburgh Steelers
484Troy TaylorCaliforniaNew York Jets
486Cary ConklinWashingtonWashington Redskins
493Scott MitchellUtahMiami Dolphins
5135Craig KuppPacific LutheranNew York Giants
6138John FrieszIdahoSan Diego Chargers
6156Mike BuckMaineNew Orleans Saints
12311Gene BenhartWestern IllinoisIndianapolis Colts
12321Reggie SlackAuburnHouston Oilers

Can you do an analysis and see if O'Donnell is the number one QB out of all of them and not someone like Gene Benhart or Craig Kupp

 

[CpuFan]

Here's 1990's draft

11Jeff GeorgeIllinoisIndianapolis Colts
17Andre WareHoustonDetroit Lions
359Tom HodsonLouisiana StateNew England Patriots
363Peter Tom WillisFlorida StateChicago Bears
370Neil O'DonnellMarylandPittsburgh Steelers
484Troy TaylorCaliforniaNew York Jets
486Cary ConklinWashingtonWashington Redskins
493Scott MitchellUtahMiami Dolphins
5135Craig KuppPacific LutheranNew York Giants
6138John FrieszIdahoSan Diego Chargers
6156Mike BuckMaineNew Orleans Saints
12311Gene BenhartWestern IllinoisIndianapolis Colts
12321Reggie SlackAuburnHouston Oilers

Can you do an analysis and see if O'Donnell is the number one QB out of all of them and not someone like Gene Benhart or Craig Kupp

Well really the orginal intent of this was for the first and second round only. At least that is what the orginal writer wrote. But I carried to out sometimes even to the 6th round. Really I didn't drop very many.

As to the 1990 draft. I am afraid I can't do it. I tried for over an hour to find Jeff Georges colege stats online. It maybe somewhere on the net but I can't find it. I don't think the Net was all that back in 1990. So if I can't find the first pick of the drafts college stats I am not even going to try for all of these other unknowns. Sorry. If you have the stats post them and then I will post the results.

Sorry. I tried.

 

[Charlie Brown]

Matt Ryans completion percentage is below 60% :unsure:

 

[adamprez2003]

Well really the orginal intent of this was for the first and second round only. At least that is what the orginal writer wrote. But I carried to out sometimes even to the 6th round. Really I didn't drop very many.

As to the 1990 draft. I am afraid I can't do it. I tried for over an hour to find Jeff Georges colege stats online. It maybe somewhere on the net but I can't find it. I don't think the Net was all that back in 1990. So if I can't find the first pick of the drafts college stats I am not even going to try for all of these other unknowns. Sorry. If you have the stats post them and then I will post the results.

Sorry. I tried.

No need. Maybe if I have some time, I'll get the stats down the road. I have a question though. How do you use this to predict success. Do you have to wait until after the draft so you know who's in the top two rounds or can you use this before the draft and are you limited to only those QBs who are slotted for the first two rounds?

 

[1Hawdolfin4L]

System looks flawed. Brennan has the highest completion % but yet is ranked low while Johnson has only 4 more games ranked high. Don't tell me that Johnson played in a highly more competitive division. He is also similar in size. Shows bias to me.

And how is it that D. A. is so highly rated when he completed only 50% of his passes?

And if you only measure games completed and % then all QB's should be judged as a whole and not seperate, thus a QB who completed 60 games and has a 70% should be #1 in ALL YEARS, and if you say competition, then how did big Ben and Josh get up there?

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Anything that looks deep into the past and with a sound numerical vantage point is a worthwhile approach. This backs up what I've posted for years, that recency is what will kill you in evaluating talent, particularly in the early rounds. To invest a high pick and make it pay off, find a guy who has demonstrated excellence for years, someone the coach didn't dare keep off the field even if his roster was stacked. Late bloomers and over achievers are death to a franchise. And they always will be.

Anyone who focuses on film work of the most recent season, and uses that as the prime criteria, might as well be the recipient of the fish slapping dance on Monty Python. There can't be anything more wonderfully simpleton. Newsflash: with that approach you know exactly what everyone else knows. Which means you know absolutely nothing.

That may be a tad exaggerated but properly so. I guarantee NFL teams would draft more proficiently if they kept a reality check table leading up to every draft. In other words, who gives a flip what the ratings are on draft eve. Use checks and balances, rating charts from two months earlier, four months earlier, a year earlier, and so on. Then be very careful if you see someone emerge out of nowhere to burst atop the ratings in the final one or two evaluations. More often than not, that guy is overrated. His true ability level is closer to where he previously was listed. Similarly, someone who has slid dramatically probably is value if you get him much lower than he always figured to be picked.

It's really no different than my higher rated preseason underdog system in bowl games. That went 7-1 ATS this season, taking the bowl game underdog if it was higher rated in The Sporting News preseason annual. Preseason evaluation is largely reality, based on talent level, then the subjective goofs insist on shuffling the deck every single week and pretending the new order is absolute. That leads to so-called upsets of Michigan over Florida, even though Michigan was rated higher than Florida in the preseason annual. Likewise with West Virginia over Oklahoma. Happens ever year, football and basketball. Disguised superior teams merely winning as they should.

Dan Marino is the ultimate example for this franchise, someone who stood out on every long term evaluation of his college career but the recency morons rejected him. "He pushes the ball." That literally was the damning critique of his release leading to draft day.

 

[DonShula84]

It's really no different than my higher rated preseason underdog system in bowl games. That went 7-1 ATS this season, taking the bowl game underdog if it was higher rated in The Sporting News preseason annual. Preseason evaluation is largely reality, based on talent level, then the subjective goofs insist on shuffling the deck every single week and pretending the new order is absolute. That leads to so-called upsets of Michigan over Florida, even though Michigan was rated higher than Florida in the preseason annual. Likewise with West Virginia over Oklahoma. Happens ever year, football and basketball. Disguised superior teams merely winning as they should.

Definitely need to remember that for next year.

 

[CpuFan]

No need. Maybe if I have some time, I'll get the stats down the road. I have a question though. How do you use this to predict success. Do you have to wait until after the draft so you know who's in the top two rounds or can you use this before the draft and are you limited to only those QBs who are slotted for the first two rounds?

I used this system to project last years and this years draft. (See the above posts). But in the drafts before these I didn't look up every QB. For myself I am keeping this infomation and I will track the QBs for for the next few years just to see what I see. At the most I will track 10 QB's every year.

As to how you use this to predict success. I suggest you read both of the linked articles, and look at the stats. It is not the end all and be all but it does show you that nothing beats playing time for determining a QB success ration coupled with his accuracy.

Here are some quotes from the linked articles.

"This projection system has been very accurate for quarterbacks drafted over the past ten years. As of now, the projection system only considers quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds. Quarterbacks taken later in the draft are much less likely to have the talent needed to succeed as an NFL starter, and they are much less likely to get an opportunity to prove themselves."

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/03/23/ramblings/stat-analysis/3774/

" Lewin's premise is that because quarterbacks with the most starts are seen more by scouts, those scouts get a more sound evaluation. Some can be thrown off by physical prowess (see Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell), but the ultimate test of an elite QB is accuracy. If a QB is drafted high, he will likely already possess the necessary physical traits it takes to succeed. However, if he is not accurate, he is much more likely to fail."

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=60&articleid=29927

Now if your asking me did I slot the players after I knew the results of the drafts and how the players performed in the NFL. The answer is no.