Pachyderm_Wave
Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ
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The last time Miami picked 12th overall (1992) they selected a pro bowl caliber player in Marco Coleman. When you look at the history of the 12th overall pick over the last 29 years going back to 1984, you get a clearer picture on exactly what I mean when I assert that a team has to come away with one of the best players at that position.... regardless of what your needs are.
If the player happens to fit a need, that obviously makes an easy selection....or at least it should. However, the point still remains that TALENT is the prime objective at this point in the draft. Need is always a terrible evaluator of talent.
Here's a look at the last 29 players who were selected with the 12th overall pick every year going back to '84. An asterisk denotes that the player made at least one Pro-Bowl.
Even in many of the drafts where the 12th overall pick wasn't a Pro-Bowler, the player selected on either side of him at #11 and #13 overall were Pro-Bowlers. Again, need is a terrible evaluator of talent.
I think you have to take the player that you believe has the best chance of being a Pro-Bowl caliber player with the 12th overall pick. That player is typically always going to be there. History will tell you that you have better than a 50% chance of getting that Pro-Bowl caliber player at #12 if you don't let need dictate your selection.
2012 - Fletcher Cox / DT / Mississippi St. (will certainly make a few Pro-Bowls)
2011 - Christian Ponder / QB / Florida St. (need evaluated the talent here)
2010 - Ryan Mathews* / RB / Fresno St.
2009 - Knowshon Moreno / RB / Georgia
2008 - Ryan Clady* / OT / Boise St.
2007 - Marshawn Lynch* / RB / California
2006 - Haloti Ngata* / DT-DE / Oregon
2005 - Shawne Merriman* / DE-OLB / Maryland
2004 - Jonathan Vilma* / LB / Miami
2003 - Jimmy Kennedy / DT / Penn St.
2002 - Wendell Bryant / DT / Wisconsin
2001 - Damione Lewis / DT / Miami
2000 - Shaun Ellis* / DE / Tennessee
1999 - Cade McNown / QB / UCLA
1998 - Keith Brooking* / LB / Georgia Tech
1997 - Warrick Dunn* / RB / Florida St.
1996 - Regan Upshaw / DE / California
1995 - Warren Sapp* / DT / Miami
1994 - Aaron Glenn* / CB / Texas A&M
1993 - Patrick Bates / S / Texas A&M
1992 - Marco Coleman* / DE / Georgia Tech
1991 - Alvin Harper / WR / Tennessee
1990 - James Francis / LB / Baylor
1989 - Trace Armstrong* / DE / Florida
1988 - Ken Harvey* / LB / California
1987 - Danny Noonan / DT / Nebraska
1986 - Chuck Long / QB / Iowa
1985 - Jim Lachey* / OT / Ohio St.
1984 - Alphonso Carreker / DE / Florida St.
If the player happens to fit a need, that obviously makes an easy selection....or at least it should. However, the point still remains that TALENT is the prime objective at this point in the draft. Need is always a terrible evaluator of talent.
Here's a look at the last 29 players who were selected with the 12th overall pick every year going back to '84. An asterisk denotes that the player made at least one Pro-Bowl.
Even in many of the drafts where the 12th overall pick wasn't a Pro-Bowler, the player selected on either side of him at #11 and #13 overall were Pro-Bowlers. Again, need is a terrible evaluator of talent.
I think you have to take the player that you believe has the best chance of being a Pro-Bowl caliber player with the 12th overall pick. That player is typically always going to be there. History will tell you that you have better than a 50% chance of getting that Pro-Bowl caliber player at #12 if you don't let need dictate your selection.
2012 - Fletcher Cox / DT / Mississippi St. (will certainly make a few Pro-Bowls)
2011 - Christian Ponder / QB / Florida St. (need evaluated the talent here)
2010 - Ryan Mathews* / RB / Fresno St.
2009 - Knowshon Moreno / RB / Georgia
2008 - Ryan Clady* / OT / Boise St.
2007 - Marshawn Lynch* / RB / California
2006 - Haloti Ngata* / DT-DE / Oregon
2005 - Shawne Merriman* / DE-OLB / Maryland
2004 - Jonathan Vilma* / LB / Miami
2003 - Jimmy Kennedy / DT / Penn St.
2002 - Wendell Bryant / DT / Wisconsin
2001 - Damione Lewis / DT / Miami
2000 - Shaun Ellis* / DE / Tennessee
1999 - Cade McNown / QB / UCLA
1998 - Keith Brooking* / LB / Georgia Tech
1997 - Warrick Dunn* / RB / Florida St.
1996 - Regan Upshaw / DE / California
1995 - Warren Sapp* / DT / Miami
1994 - Aaron Glenn* / CB / Texas A&M
1993 - Patrick Bates / S / Texas A&M
1992 - Marco Coleman* / DE / Georgia Tech
1991 - Alvin Harper / WR / Tennessee
1990 - James Francis / LB / Baylor
1989 - Trace Armstrong* / DE / Florida
1988 - Ken Harvey* / LB / California
1987 - Danny Noonan / DT / Nebraska
1986 - Chuck Long / QB / Iowa
1985 - Jim Lachey* / OT / Ohio St.
1984 - Alphonso Carreker / DE / Florida St.
