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a must read on jake long

allsilverdreams

allsilverdreams

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i picked this up on another site and figured most would enjoy the author was arguing wht we should take Jake and not Chris Long:hi5:

Think about it this way... over the last 13 years, how would have the team with the #1 pick have done had they selected the top T at #1.
1995... Ki-Jana 'oops' Carter was taken at #1... shoulda gone with #2, Tony Boselli, who had a career with 5 ProBowl appearances
1996... Keyshawn Johnson taken at #1, and he's been great. So has the #1 LT, Jonathan Ogden, who has 11 ProBowl appearances, and is one of the top 5-10 LTs to ever play the game.
1997... Easy one here... Orlando Pace was taken #1, and is a 7-time ProBowler
1998... Peyton Manning, QB, was taken #1... Sure-fire HOF here, one of the all-time greats... First LT taken though, Tra Thomas, is a 3-time ProBowler and one of the best in the business as well.
1999... Tim Couch, QB, was taken #1... he was a bust. First tackle taken was John Tait at #14, who was outstanding for 9 years...
2000... Courtney Brown, DE, was taken... he was ok, but not great. Meanwhile, Chris Samuels, taken #3 overall, is a 5-time ProBowler
2001... Michael Vick, QB, was the 'can't miss' prospect. And, while he was exciting, he always lacked as a QB, and is now out of football. #2 pick, Leonard Davis has started 107 of his 107 games, and made the ProBowl last year.
2002... David Carr, QB, was taken at #1... he's now all but out of football. Bryant McKinnie was the first LT taken (Mike Williams, a RT, was taken at #4), and has been very good, still one of the better LTs in football.
2003... Carson Palmer, QB, was taken #1, and he's been very good. Jordan Gross was the first tackle taken, at #8, and he's been very solid. He's gone both RT and LT, and been a starter for all 16 games of every year of his 5 year career.
2004... Eli Manning, QB, was taken #1, and he's had an up/down career, but just won a Superbowl. Robert Gallery was taken at #2, and while he's a pretty decent player, he's been nowhere near as good as hoped, and he hasn't made it as a LT
2005... Alex Smith, QB, was taken #1, and he's largely been a bust. First tackle taken was Jammal Brown, at #13... He's a ProBowler...
2006... Mario Williams, DE, was taken by surprise, at #1. He's turned out very well. But so has the first LT, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who was taken at #4.
2007... JaMarcus Russell, QB, was taken at #1. Way too early to tell, but thus far, the top tackle was taken at #3, and that was Joe Thomas, who made it to the ProBowl his first season.
That's 13 seasons. In 8 of those seasons, the top LT taken ended up being a ProBowler, 4 more of the guys (Tait, McKinnie, Gross, Ferguson) are excellent LTs, and only one of them could even come close to being a 'bust'.
I'd say in 8 of those years, the LT was clearly the better choice than the #1 guy (Thomas, Brown, McKinnie, Samuels, Tait, Pace, Ogden, Boselli). In a couple more, it's a toss-up (Ferguson/Mario, Vick/Davis), and in another case you had one of the top 50 players of all time taken (Peyton), but Tra Thomas was an excellent choice in any other year.
So... looking over the top... over the last 13 seasons, everyone of the #1 LTs taken has been a successful NFL player (even though Gallery hasn't lived up to expectations, he's started 57 of the possible 64 games in his career, 57 of his 58 games played).
Try saying that about ANY other position...
Let's put that into perspective... last 13 years, LT is 12-1 for at LEAST a very good player, with 8 of the 13 already having made a ProBowl...
 
allsilverdreams said:
i picked this up on another site and figured most would enjoy the author was arguing wht we should take Jake and not Chris Long:hi5:

Think about it this way... over the last 13 years, how would have the team with the #1 pick have done had they selected the top T at #1.
1995... Ki-Jana 'oops' Carter was taken at #1... shoulda gone with #2, Tony Boselli, who had a career with 5 ProBowl appearances
1996... Keyshawn Johnson taken at #1, and he's been great. So has the #1 LT, Jonathan Ogden, who has 11 ProBowl appearances, and is one of the top 5-10 LTs to ever play the game.
1997... Easy one here... Orlando Pace was taken #1, and is a 7-time ProBowler
1998... Peyton Manning, QB, was taken #1... Sure-fire HOF here, one of the all-time greats... First LT taken though, Tra Thomas, is a 3-time ProBowler and one of the best in the business as well.
1999... Tim Couch, QB, was taken #1... he was a bust. First tackle taken was John Tait at #14, who was outstanding for 9 years...
2000... Courtney Brown, DE, was taken... he was ok, but not great. Meanwhile, Chris Samuels, taken #3 overall, is a 5-time ProBowler
2001... Michael Vick, QB, was the 'can't miss' prospect. And, while he was exciting, he always lacked as a QB, and is now out of football. #2 pick, Leonard Davis has started 107 of his 107 games, and made the ProBowl last year.
2002... David Carr, QB, was taken at #1... he's now all but out of football. Bryant McKinnie was the first LT taken (Mike Williams, a RT, was taken at #4), and has been very good, still one of the better LTs in football.
2003... Carson Palmer, QB, was taken #1, and he's been very good. Jordan Gross was the first tackle taken, at #8, and he's been very solid. He's gone both RT and LT, and been a starter for all 16 games of every year of his 5 year career.
2004... Eli Manning, QB, was taken #1, and he's had an up/down career, but just won a Superbowl. Robert Gallery was taken at #2, and while he's a pretty decent player, he's been nowhere near as good as hoped, and he hasn't made it as a LT
2005... Alex Smith, QB, was taken #1, and he's largely been a bust. First tackle taken was Jammal Brown, at #13... He's a ProBowler...
2006... Mario Williams, DE, was taken by surprise, at #1. He's turned out very well. But so has the first LT, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who was taken at #4.
2007... JaMarcus Russell, QB, was taken at #1. Way too early to tell, but thus far, the top tackle was taken at #3, and that was Joe Thomas, who made it to the ProBowl his first season.
That's 13 seasons. In 8 of those seasons, the top LT taken ended up being a ProBowler, 4 more of the guys (Tait, McKinnie, Gross, Ferguson) are excellent LTs, and only one of them could even come close to being a 'bust'.
I'd say in 8 of those years, the LT was clearly the better choice than the #1 guy (Thomas, Brown, McKinnie, Samuels, Tait, Pace, Ogden, Boselli). In a couple more, it's a toss-up (Ferguson/Mario, Vick/Davis), and in another case you had one of the top 50 players of all time taken (Peyton), but Tra Thomas was an excellent choice in any other year.
So... looking over the top... over the last 13 seasons, everyone of the #1 LTs taken has been a successful NFL player (even though Gallery hasn't lived up to expectations, he's started 57 of the possible 64 games in his career, 57 of his 58 games played).
Try saying that about ANY other position...
Let's put that into perspective... last 13 years, LT is 12-1 for at LEAST a very good player, with 8 of the 13 already having made a ProBowl...
Click to expand...

very interesting read. I guess maybe players that are looked at as left tackles are at the very least good at other positions, makes sense to a degree.
 
I couldn't agree more. I've been saying this since the end of last season. IT ALL STARTS UP FRONT! We haven't had a good O-line for a decade, and it is just NOW starting to shape up into a decent unit. If we add a Pro-Bowl caliber LT to it (and I think Long could be that player), then we're on the way to competing. I don't care who you put behind that line - if they don't have time to throw... hell, even Peyton Manninng would be a disappointment.
 
There are obvious holes in your logic. All those players were taken with little question as to their ability to play LT at that point. Jake comes into the draft already being questioned as a LT. I am not saying he won't go to the pro bowl as a RT starter there for the next 15 years and I hope he does, but you don't spent that kind of money on a RT if your QB of the future is not left handed ;) There is film all over the Internet of him not being able to handle speed rushers so he is not a Godsend at LT. He is a beast for sure and the best RT in the draft and potential to be a LT in the NFL, but until he can show that he can handle elite speed, his NFL qb will have to see it coming and that would put him as a RT.
 
Most people would have been pretty happy if we signed J.Gross(RT) from Carolina during FA. The money he got won't be far off from what J.Long will get and he probably will be a LT not a RT. It's the ultimate position to be safe on selecting 1st overall because if he's not good enough to play LT we'll move him to RT, if that doesn't work you always try G. I'm not saying that's what I want to happen but if a QB doesn't workout then what, money thrown away. If a DE or OLB doesn't workout you put them in situations to succeed depending on the players strength (i.e. pass rusher, run stopper) but that's a tonne of money tied up to a guy only playing some downs. Now if that O-lineman turns out to be a probowler in directly effects our run and pass game. If that D-lineman or OLB becomes a probowler great but it doesn't help as much (if it does we had JT and still didn't get us far). The only really difference maker above and beyond all over positions is if you can find the next P.Manning/T.Brady. These guys make EVERYBODY better on O and D, but as you can see this is a real short list and nobody is comparing M.Ryan to either one of these guys. So I really think our best pick is J.Long, I won't be disappointed with C.Long but I have a feeling M.Ryan and V.Gholston will turn out to be good pros but nothing better then that. The only wild card to me is getting a great trade (though very unlikely) in where we get a probowl type player and ALOT of extra picks. Just my opinion with my reasons to back it up.
 
[QUOTEThere is film all over the Internet of him not being able to handle speed rushers so he is not a Godsend at LT.][/QUOTE]

umpalu though you are the president of the most important club predraft I'd have to disagree with that statement only because J.Long has only given up 2 sacks in for years and two penalty's. One to V.Gholston who everyone and their brother thinks is the second coming of LT(which is why workout trainers should get paid alot more). Every LT has given up sacks and hurries, ask M.Light (NE) he'll tell you it's true. lol !!!
 
Yesterday it was QBs. Today it's LTs.
I'll go ahead and do the DEs. I don't think researching for stats is needed, however. It simply goes without saying:
If you go back 25 years you will find that the 1st DE drafted succeeded more often than DEs drafted later on. So we MUST DRAFT CHRIS LONG.
This same logic can be applied to any and every position.
The first player drafted at any position is going to be the one who is most likely to succeed when compared to the others drafted at that same position for that year. Why? Well because he is the best available at his position.
The only thing remarkable about this is that some people find this to be remarkable.
With all due respect,this is just another angle to use as a lobbying tool.

Also Leonard Davis went to the ProBowl as a OG; not a LT.
 
good read thanks

found this on rotoworld.com

It's become "clear" that Michigan OT Jake Long will not get past the top three picks in the draft, according to NFL Network's Adam Schefter.

The Rams wined and dined Long on Thursday, bringing GM Bill Devaney, personnel man Tony Softli, president of football ops Jay Zygmunt, and coach Scott Linehan. That's just about everyone with any say in the organization. ESPN's John Clayton said Thursday he thinks Jake will go No. 1 to Miami.
 
allsilverdreams said:
i picked this up on another site and figured most would enjoy the author was arguing wht we should take Jake and not Chris Long:hi5:

Think about it this way... over the last 13 years, how would have the team with the #1 pick have done had they selected the top T at #1.
1995... Ki-Jana 'oops' Carter was taken at #1... shoulda gone with #2, Tony Boselli, who had a career with 5 ProBowl appearances
1996... Keyshawn Johnson taken at #1, and he's been great. So has the #1 LT, Jonathan Ogden, who has 11 ProBowl appearances, and is one of the top 5-10 LTs to ever play the game.
1997... Easy one here... Orlando Pace was taken #1, and is a 7-time ProBowler
1998... Peyton Manning, QB, was taken #1... Sure-fire HOF here, one of the all-time greats... First LT taken though, Tra Thomas, is a 3-time ProBowler and one of the best in the business as well.
1999... Tim Couch, QB, was taken #1... he was a bust. First tackle taken was John Tait at #14, who was outstanding for 9 years...
2000... Courtney Brown, DE, was taken... he was ok, but not great. Meanwhile, Chris Samuels, taken #3 overall, is a 5-time ProBowler
2001... Michael Vick, QB, was the 'can't miss' prospect. And, while he was exciting, he always lacked as a QB, and is now out of football. #2 pick, Leonard Davis has started 107 of his 107 games, and made the ProBowl last year.
2002... David Carr, QB, was taken at #1... he's now all but out of football. Bryant McKinnie was the first LT taken (Mike Williams, a RT, was taken at #4), and has been very good, still one of the better LTs in football.
2003... Carson Palmer, QB, was taken #1, and he's been very good. Jordan Gross was the first tackle taken, at #8, and he's been very solid. He's gone both RT and LT, and been a starter for all 16 games of every year of his 5 year career.
2004... Eli Manning, QB, was taken #1, and he's had an up/down career, but just won a Superbowl. Robert Gallery was taken at #2, and while he's a pretty decent player, he's been nowhere near as good as hoped, and he hasn't made it as a LT
2005... Alex Smith, QB, was taken #1, and he's largely been a bust. First tackle taken was Jammal Brown, at #13... He's a ProBowler...
2006... Mario Williams, DE, was taken by surprise, at #1. He's turned out very well. But so has the first LT, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who was taken at #4.
2007... JaMarcus Russell, QB, was taken at #1. Way too early to tell, but thus far, the top tackle was taken at #3, and that was Joe Thomas, who made it to the ProBowl his first season.
That's 13 seasons. In 8 of those seasons, the top LT taken ended up being a ProBowler, 4 more of the guys (Tait, McKinnie, Gross, Ferguson) are excellent LTs, and only one of them could even come close to being a 'bust'.
I'd say in 8 of those years, the LT was clearly the better choice than the #1 guy (Thomas, Brown, McKinnie, Samuels, Tait, Pace, Ogden, Boselli). In a couple more, it's a toss-up (Ferguson/Mario, Vick/Davis), and in another case you had one of the top 50 players of all time taken (Peyton), but Tra Thomas was an excellent choice in any other year.
So... looking over the top... over the last 13 seasons, everyone of the #1 LTs taken has been a successful NFL player (even though Gallery hasn't lived up to expectations, he's started 57 of the possible 64 games in his career, 57 of his 58 games played).
Try saying that about ANY other position...
Let's put that into perspective... last 13 years, LT is 12-1 for at LEAST a very good player, with 8 of the 13 already having made a ProBowl...
Click to expand...


The problem with this author's premise is that Jake is considered more like Robert Gallery than Jonathan Ogden...He's a sure-fire bet to be a top flite RT and a potential very good LT...you tell me, is that the best option for us at #1, also what is not considered into his equation is who the LT was on the teams that took other players...every draft class is different. In this class, while Long is considered the best prospect at OT, there is a very strong contingent behind him at a less risky level with Otah, Williams, Clady, Godser, Baker, etc... Why risk the top pick and $35M in guarantees, when one can be had at #32 ?? Use that #1 for a more sure thing. Right now, Chris Long is more of a sure thing than Jake Long...
 
Another thing, most draftniks think that Brandon Albert is a better OG than Jake Long is a LT ?? Do we take him instead ??
 
Very good post! I've been saying this for the last 10 years, we need to draft a left tackle, let me tell ya something, Richmond Webb was a big reason for Marino's early success, With gus like Keith Simms and Dwight Stephenson, Marino had the best pocket to throw a ball in and his blind side was always covered even when we went against the best pass rushers like Bruce Smith, Webb would hold his ground, we need to get back that stud of a Tackle like we once had, give our QB some time to throw and help the running game out, I would be very happy if we drafted jake Long wiht the 1st pick although I really see BP trading the pick and us going for the best avalible later, maybe a a Otah or something. We need to address the line, if you look at all the successful teams in the history of football it all starts at the line of scrimmage.
 
I'll say it again....PLEASE draft Jake Long!!!

And as to saying all those prospects named were taken without any doubts in their game....whatever.....read any scouting report on any Tackle every year, and they all have pros and cons. It's all a guess anyway. It's funny to hear people taking so much stock in what some draft analyst says about a guy anyway. I only care what coaching staffs think; they are the owns who would know the most and see potential. The analyst are just selling magazines or making for TV entertainment. All a guy has to do is start his own website and say...I think J. Long may struggle at LT..and some people buy into it. Geez.
And you all who love the draft analysts so much....they said that if Long had come out last year it might have been a toss up between him and Joe Thomas as to who was taken first. JT sure did well, so why can't Long if you like to go by analyst's word as bible. lol.
 
LarryFinFan said:
Another thing, most draftniks think that Brandon Albert is a better OG than Jake Long is a LT ?? Do we take him instead ??
Click to expand...


Not with the first pick. Would love to get him with #32, but he will probably go in the late first. Maybe if we made a trade somehow we could get him and Jake. =)
 
My problem is spending first pick money on a stud tackle that might not be a true LT. I would pick Jake @ #2 or #3 but that is not the pick! With the #1 I think we have to go with Chris Long or the (gulp) QB that throws ints. Economics almost dictate you get a bigger splash with the #1 pick.
 
Etuoo33 said:
My problem is spending first pick money on a stud tackle that might not be a true LT. I would pick Jake @ #2 or #3 but that is not the pick! With the #1 I think we have to go with Chris Long or the (gulp) QB that throws ints. Economics almost dictate you get a bigger splash with the #1 pick.
Click to expand...

I like Chris Long too, but is he a sure fire thing in a 3-4 defense? If we played 4-3 I would say, heck yeah draft him.
Who knows though. That's the key, none of us know at this point. :)

And what does economics dictates you get a bigger splash with the #1 pick mean?

I won't comment on the other draft suggestion. :)
 
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