This dude here has forgotten more football than 90% of the posters here combined currently know.
A shocking statistic concerning prospective Quarterbacks
- Thread starter CirclingWagons
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This dude here has forgotten more football than 90% of the posters here combined currently know.
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I always look forward to Awsi posts. Dude never disappoints.
I find if I just forget 90% of the posts I am fine.
There is no sure fire guaranteed scheme to run offensively or defensively that guarantees success whether you play in the SEC, Big 12, Big 10 or PAC 12. For decades the PAC 12 and Big 10 have played solid defense and pro style offenses. The Big 12 has used more spread but have mixed in some balanced attacks. When Urban Meyer was at Florida, he used the spread very effectively and had good defenses. Auburn won with a spread but the two best teams this year were run oriented and had top defenses.
Today's rules are stacked against defenses opening the passing game which equals success at the NFL level. The high majority of QBs that are successful in the NFL are raised in a pro set offense. Cam Newton transitioned very well from the spread in college to the NFL game but to this point, he is the exception and not the rule.
The QB position has become a much more athletic position then years past. QBs that play in conferences or on teams that utilize a spread offense are at a disadvantage when they make the transition because there are skills that they don't use in college that they need in the NFL. Simply taking a snap under center and executing a 3-7 step drop can prove to be a monumental task for some. Tim Tebow is a good example. Spread QB who used his size and Meyers offense to have probably the greatest college career in history, gets drafted and looked god awful taking snaps under center. His footwork and throwing motion was horrible and he has undergone a lot of work to improve to being just bad.
To make a long story short, you can get a good picture of a college QB and the skills he possesses regardless of the system he plays in. But, in order to get an accurate assessment of how he will transition to the NFL, the system he plays in makes a difference.
Today's rules are stacked against defenses opening the passing game which equals success at the NFL level. The high majority of QBs that are successful in the NFL are raised in a pro set offense. Cam Newton transitioned very well from the spread in college to the NFL game but to this point, he is the exception and not the rule.
The QB position has become a much more athletic position then years past. QBs that play in conferences or on teams that utilize a spread offense are at a disadvantage when they make the transition because there are skills that they don't use in college that they need in the NFL. Simply taking a snap under center and executing a 3-7 step drop can prove to be a monumental task for some. Tim Tebow is a good example. Spread QB who used his size and Meyers offense to have probably the greatest college career in history, gets drafted and looked god awful taking snaps under center. His footwork and throwing motion was horrible and he has undergone a lot of work to improve to being just bad.
To make a long story short, you can get a good picture of a college QB and the skills he possesses regardless of the system he plays in. But, in order to get an accurate assessment of how he will transition to the NFL, the system he plays in makes a difference.
WesternNYDolfan
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Oregon, the Pac 12s best team over the past couple of years is bubble screen heavy. If we're gauging future quarterbacking success based on defenses, you would think all SEC QBs would be the best QBs to draft and , or at least Big Ten.
Fact is, conferences don't matter, when it comes to determining a QBs future success. It is a player by player basis (although I do stick by my theory that USC QBs are useless in the NFL, and am glad Barkley didn't come out).
MarinoEqualsGod
The man, the myth, the legend
Troy Aikman won three Super Bowls and started his college career at Oklahoma, so technically he's a Big 12 quarterback.
Pachyderm_Wave
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No, the Big-12 wasn't even a conference when Troy Aikman was at Oklahoma, it was the Big-8.
The Big-12 wasn't formed until the Big-8 merged with the old SWC in 1994 and started playing games against each other in 1996.
The Big-8 was run heavy, power option conference back then, and Switzer switched back to the wishbone after Aikman got injured. Troy Aikman didn't fit that style of offense and left for UCLA. Switzer was always an option attack coach, he changed his offense to fit Aikman the one season he was there.
The problem is people can't differentiate between the old Big-8 and the current Big-12. They're two completely different styles of football. The Big-12 had adopted the finesse spread passing attack as it's identity because that's where all the roots to the Run-and-Shoot structure was born.
The current Big-12 is a conference full of spread attack offenses and no defense. All they do is recruit highly touted system QB's out of the state of Texas for the most part, and stick them in the shotgun behind huge offensive lines, and throw bubble screens against soft coverages. They're never touched because they get the ball out so quick. On the occassions that they actually have to face defenses, they get knocked out of the games... ask Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford.
Hell, Kansas went 11-1 in the Big-12 with a weak armed midget by the name of Todd Reesing throwing for almost 4,000 yards and 30+ TD's. He was no different than the half a dozen record setting system QB's that Mike Leach had one after another at Texas Tech shredding that conference that could never sniff an NFL roster.
Big-12 QB's don't turnout in the NFL because it's the first time many of them have ever even seen actual defense be played, unless they had the opportunity to face an SEC defense.
It's the lack of quality NFL backups the Big-12 has failed to produce that is actually more telling than the fact it's produced precisely 0 legitimate franchise QB's since it's inception almost 20 years ago.
Even the Sun-Belt and FCS has produced more quality NFL QB's in that time span.
This is a great thread.
Dr Slimm FTMFW!!!!!!!!!!!!
Have you been on vacation? I had been going in the draft thread on occasion over the last couple of weeks looking for the scoop from Dr Slimm only to be disappointed. I did notice some new stuff today. I almost paged you. Gotta know whats up for the draft.
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Nah man. Its like, totally a coincidence that a huge conference has produced almost zero legitimate rosterable QBs and also happens to play dreadful pass defense and rely heavily on gimmick offenses. Total coincidence bro.
Pachyderm_Wave
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Dr. WV, I want you highlight the franchise quarterbacks off this list of the best quarterbacks the Big-12 has had since it's inception. After you've done that, highlight the quality NFL backups that the conference has produced.
Iowa St.:
Sage Rosenfels
Seneca Wallace
Colorado:
Koy Detmer
Joel Klatt
Kansas St.:
Michael Bishop
Josh Freeman
Kansas:
Todd Reesing
Missouri:
Blaine Gabbert
Chase Daniel
Brad Smith (set NCAA records as a QB in the Big-12, switched to WR in the NFL)
Texas Tech:
Graham Harrell
Cody Hodges
Sonny Cumbie
B.J. Symons
Kliff Kingsbury
Taylor Potts
Oklahoma St.:
Zac Robinson
Oklahoma:
Josh Heupel
Jason White (Heisman Trophy)
Nate Hybl
Rhett Bomar (transferred to FCS)
Sam Bradford (Heisman Trophy)
Texas:
Colt McCoy (Finished in top 3 of Heisman voting twice I think)
Vince Young (Heisman Trophy)
Major Applewhite
Chris Simms
Texas A&M:
Reggie McNeal
Randy McCown
Jerrod Johnson (remember when he was supposed to be a 1st round pick?)
Stephen McGee
Nebraska:
Tommie Frazier (Heisman Trophy)
Eric Crouch (Heisman Trophy)
Scott Frost (switched to safety in the NFL)
Joe Ganz
Zac Taylor
Well the Heisman hasn't been particularly good to QB's in the NFL either. What have there been 29 QB's to win and only 2 to win a Super Bowl.
Pachyderm_Wave
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It's not because of some mysterious voo-doo. It's because the Heisman Trophy has become a statistical award, and the Big-12 is always going to have 5 or 6 QB's putting up Heisman worthy stats in that conference due to the lack of anything resembling a defense.
For example, in 2011, 5 Big-12 QB's passed for anywhere from 3,700-4,700 yards, and threw anywhere from 28-37 TD's, while completing anywhere from 61.7% - 72.4% of their passes.
In 2010, 5 Big-12 QB's passed for anywhere from 3,100-4,700 yards, and threw anywhere from 22-38 TD's, while completing anywhere from 63.4% - 67% of their passes.
In 2009, 6 Big-12 QB's passed for anywhere from 3,100-3,600 yards, and threw anywhere from 22-30 TD's, while completing anywhere from 58% - 70.6% of their passes.
In 2008, 8 Big-12 QB's passed from anywhere from 2,900-5,100 yards, and threw anywhere from 20-50 TD's, while completing anywhere from 58.6% - 76.7% of their passes.
In 2007, 7 Big-12 QB's passed from anywhere from 3,000-5,700 yards, and threw anywhere from 22-48 TD's, while completing anywhere from 60% - 71.8% of their passes.
We don't even have to go back the Jason White's who were throwing for 3,800+ yards and 40 TD's of the early 2000's.
It's the explosion of the spread attacks in the Big-12 that have produced a bunch of stat padding system quarterbacks that just haven't made quality pros.
Pachyderm_Wave
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I remember the 2003 Oklahoma Sooner team that was being hyped as the best offense in college football history. It's easy to understand why when you look at the scores they were posting against their opposition.
vs. North Texas - won 37-3
vs. Bama - won 20-13 (this was a 4-9 Bama team that was unranked, and one of the worst Bama squads of the past 50 years. They held this offense to 14 points. Oklahoma had to score on a fake punt to score 20)
vs. Fresno St. - won 52-28
vs. UCLA - won 59-24
vs. Iowa St. - won 53-7
vs. #11 Texas - won 65-13
vs. #24 Missouri - won 34-13
vs. Colorado - won 34-20
vs. #14 Oklahoma St. - won 52-9
vs. Texas A&M - won 77-0
vs. Baylor - won 41-3
vs. Texas Tech - won 56-25
vs. #12 Kansas St. - lost 35-7
vs. #2 LSU in the National Championship Game - lost 21-14
That Oklahoma team played 2 SEC teams, and both of them held that Oklahoma offense led by a Heisman Trophy winner at the quarterback position to 14 points.
Fast forward to 2008 Oklahoma Sooners, they would also play an SEC team for the national title. This offense was hyped as even better than the 2003 Oklahoma offense. The 2008 Sooners were the only team in college football history to score 60+ points in 5 straight games:
vs. UT-Chattanooga - won 57-2
vs. Cincinnati - won 52-26
vs. Washington - won 55-14
vs. #23 TCU - won 35-10
vs. Baylor - won 49-17
vs. #5 Texas - lost 45-35
vs. #16 Kansas - won 45-31
vs. Kansas St. - won 58-35
vs. Nebraska - won 62-28
vs. Texas A&M - won 66-28
vs. #2 Texas Tech - won 65-21
vs. #12 Oklahoma St. - won 61-41
vs. #17 Missouri - won 62-21
vs. #2 Florida in the National Championship Game - lost 21-14
Once again an SEC defense held a mighty Oklahoma offense led by a Heisman Trophy winning QB to 14 points.
vs. North Texas - won 37-3
vs. Bama - won 20-13 (this was a 4-9 Bama team that was unranked, and one of the worst Bama squads of the past 50 years. They held this offense to 14 points. Oklahoma had to score on a fake punt to score 20)
vs. Fresno St. - won 52-28
vs. UCLA - won 59-24
vs. Iowa St. - won 53-7
vs. #11 Texas - won 65-13
vs. #24 Missouri - won 34-13
vs. Colorado - won 34-20
vs. #14 Oklahoma St. - won 52-9
vs. Texas A&M - won 77-0
vs. Baylor - won 41-3
vs. Texas Tech - won 56-25
vs. #12 Kansas St. - lost 35-7
vs. #2 LSU in the National Championship Game - lost 21-14
That Oklahoma team played 2 SEC teams, and both of them held that Oklahoma offense led by a Heisman Trophy winner at the quarterback position to 14 points.
Fast forward to 2008 Oklahoma Sooners, they would also play an SEC team for the national title. This offense was hyped as even better than the 2003 Oklahoma offense. The 2008 Sooners were the only team in college football history to score 60+ points in 5 straight games:
vs. UT-Chattanooga - won 57-2
vs. Cincinnati - won 52-26
vs. Washington - won 55-14
vs. #23 TCU - won 35-10
vs. Baylor - won 49-17
vs. #5 Texas - lost 45-35
vs. #16 Kansas - won 45-31
vs. Kansas St. - won 58-35
vs. Nebraska - won 62-28
vs. Texas A&M - won 66-28
vs. #2 Texas Tech - won 65-21
vs. #12 Oklahoma St. - won 61-41
vs. #17 Missouri - won 62-21
vs. #2 Florida in the National Championship Game - lost 21-14
Once again an SEC defense held a mighty Oklahoma offense led by a Heisman Trophy winning QB to 14 points.
I was thinking even a little bigger than that Slimm. I was thinking it is almost a curse to win the Heisman and then go on to win the Super Bowl. 76 winners is there? and I think only 7 have won the Super Bowl.
Besides the stat inflation which I agree 100% on with you, the players also go to bad teams devoid of talent. The NFL isn't like a college program where 2 or 3 good recruiting classes can setup 3 to 5 good runs at championships. You draft a Heisman candidate and you instantly expect your team to be a better team but with the money you wrap up in a Heisman winner it takes money away to address your lack of roster talent.
The teams who have a roster ready for an NFL run usually draft last and even if they had chance at a Heisman winner, why would you need one honestly, chances are if you are drafting from 25 back you have a star QB, RB and WR.
I guess the direction that NFL passing rules are going it is inevitable that someone like RGIII or Newton is going to finally win the big one sooner rather than later.
Sage was a serviceable 3rd string QB. Good for holding a clipboard. Extra camp arm. Worth having on a roster.
Senaca Wallace IMHO is a decent player. Id keep him on a roster. Solid as a 3rd stringer. Below average backup IMHO. He is a decent change of pace. I feel like if he is your backup and something happens to your starter mid game, there are things he can do to a defense that hasnt gameplanned for him that may allow you to win a game you may have lost even with your starter in. In no way is he a guy you can win with on a week to week basis though.
Josh Freeman is decent. Got a lot of hype after last season. In the end though I see him fading away. Tampa has not found their man. I see him winding up as a backup with another team in a few seasons.
Blaine Gabbert is a joke. Worst starter in the league possibly this last season. Any more time Jacksonville puts into this guy is a total waste of time.
I think Jeff Fisher is going to wish he had not taken that St. Louis job in time. Sam Bradford got a lot of hype after his rookie season. We will see what he can do.
Colt McCoy is a backup on his best day. Cleveland is fooling themselves if they think he has a future as a starting NFL QB who can deliver. He showed himself to me the way he folded up vs. Bama.
Vince Young.....
Steven McGhee is at least a good 3rd stringer. I think he may make a career for himself. He might be a good backup to have. I wouldnt totally rule out him becoming a starter somewhere one day. He has played well in some preseason games, but that of course is preseason.
No one else on that list is really worth mentioning.