Aaron Donald

[xXwarXx]

Donald won't make it anywhere near our first pick IMO.

The way teams are building there defenses now, and how there drafting, is highly aimed at pressure up the middle. Donald goes top 10 IMO. Very hard to see him get out of there, it's not exactly a strong position this draft.

 

[Padfoot]

This is my point...you can't possibly justify drafting Bridgewater just because you want to blindly pick BPA. As I said look what we have in Jordan...a guy who's playing a position that 3 other guys are already holding down. You can look at how much more talented one guy is but then you have to look at the value you're losing by leaving more talented players on the bench. A minor upgrade at one position (Donald over Odrick) is not a better approach than a huge upgrade at another (Shazier over Wheeler, Martin over ?, etc).

Do you like this defense better?
Wake-Donald-Mitchell-Vernon
Wheeler-Ellerbe-Misi

or

Wake-Odrick-Mitchell-Vernon
Shazier-Ellerbe-Misi

It's crazy that after Dion last year people seriously think that drafting players into positions of strength makes any sense. Pick from a pool of positions that can make an immediate impact (RB, TE, OL, LBer, FS, WR) and if the guy's are immediate upgrades take the highest guy on your board. Positional value is important, it can't just be cast aside. If a guy like Louis Nix was a Donald level prospect, then we could talk business because he'd be an immediate upgrade over Mitchell more than likely.

While I agree you can't just blindly pick BPA, I think you are undervaluing depth/positional value and overvaluing our current players. When you substitute a player, you're not necessarily losing the entire value of that player because there is a degree of fatigue to consider. And I don't think we have too many players that are more valuable than a properly selected 1st round pick.

I wouldn't take Donald if Shazier is available but I absolutely would take him over Martin.

 

[FearTheBeard]

While I agree you can't just blindly pick BPA, I think you are undervaluing depth/positional value and overvaluing our current players. When you substitute a player, you're not necessarily losing the entire value of that player because there is a degree of fatigue to consider. And I don't think we have too many players that are more valuable than a properly selected 1st round pick.

I wouldn't take Donald if Shazier is available but I absolutely would take him over Martin.

My point is not only do we have talent at 3 tech, we have depth. If we needed a DT we'd be looking at a 1 tech who has a different set of skills, which I mentioned that in the event Nix was a Donald level prospect I'd understand that. You have your 3 tech snaps accounted for already with Odrick and Starks...Mitchell has value there too and it's worth giving the AJ Francis' of the world a run. We have a lot more "value" at DT than other positions on the roster, it's arguably our best position group. I never said that it was an absolute lost, but I don't think people weigh the difference between sharing snaps between what would be three 3-techs (maybe 1100 snaps), so best case you give Donald maybe 400-500...or you could plug in a G/T/LB and plug them in for nearly every down losing no value from other guys as they haven't been helpful. You draft Donald and you lose value from Odrick and Starks or play them out of position. I think 3 tech and QB can be put in the same vault and be punted away from our first round pick.

I just don't see how I'm undervaluing depth. I think people our undervaluing all the other units on the team if they think we can make a luxury pick like Donald.
DT: Starks, Mitchell, Odrick, Francis, Shelby (inside on passing downs)...that is TONS of depth, that's more depth and top end talent than any other unit on the team.

A smart team, if somehow Donald fell to us, would use him as a trade chip, move down and accumulate picks in a deep draft.

 

[xXwarXx]

Beard makes good points, were pretty solid at DT, and besides, we have AJ Francis. The general forum told me he was an amazing prospect, must be true.

IMO The top of this draft should be focused on making the run game better. We need a real run game desparetly.

But I'd also be fine if we took one of these Tight Ends which is where I think the best value at 19 will be.

 

[jim1]

If Dion Jordan played up to his billing as a #3 overall pass rusher, he would have been a great pick.

The problem with Jordan is that he's a better LB than a pass rusher/DE, and he's not a good enough LB to justify his #3 overall selection.

I haven't seen anything to make me think that Jordan can't be one heck of an OLB. Tailor made for a 3/4 but still, that's his position imo. It'll probably be the most frustrating thing for me next year if he's force fed into DE when the college and pro tape shows that he's immensely mobile, plenty tall to cover the big and quick TE's of the NFL and he's one heck of a pass rusher with a burst. This guy's downfall at DE simply is that his 250-260 lbs are spread over a lithe 6-6 frame and he's not meant to get tangled up with athletic 300-320 lb OTs that he'll face in the NFL. What you saw in college from him was great mobility, coverage ability that actually had him out wide in certain defenses in coverage, one heck of a pass rush with a startling first step- and a tendency to get ridden out wide by OTs when he went up against good OT's, big time. Look at the 2012 USC tape for example.

Just because players like Jason Taylor and Jack Youngblood could cut it as undersized DE's doesn't mean that Jordan can- the dude is just not meant to have his hand in the ground and nose to nose up against NFL OTs imo. Draft a Chris Smith or James Gayle for that, go with Wake and Vernon at DE, whatever. Taylor thrived when taken off the line, and even before that he was just better than Jordan at being an undersized DE, bottom line. Even if Jordan improves at DE, I'll be pissed because his best use is in space, and as a pass rusher, a tall wild card to give opposing offensive coordinators fits. If the coaches didn't want to use him properly they shouldn't have drafted him in the first place. If Jeff Ireland forced him on Philbin, Philphin better make damn sure that Kevin Coyle gets the most out of him. If we have another year of misusing Jordan as badly as last year, I'll be nauseous.

 

[hoops]

Doubt Donald gets past Chicago at #14...it's too rich for me...a likely situational rusher early on that if he makes hay with his pass rush teams are sure to double team and with his short arms neutralize him...if he doesn't win immediately he gets washed out...

Shazier doesn't have the instincts to validate a top 20 pick...and he would compete with wheeler and Jenkins for weak side snaps...

 

[xXwarXx]

Doubt Donald gets past Chicago at #14...it's too rich for me...a likely situational rusher early on that if he makes hay with his pass rush teams are sure to double team and with his short arms neutralize him...if he doesn't win immediately he gets washed out...

Shazier doesn't have the instincts to validate a top 20 pick...and he would compete with wheeler and Jenkins for weak side snaps...

Agreed about shazier. I feel like people spend to much time watching him run into a pile full speed, and miss the rest of his game which is lacking.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

hoops, honest question: Can you think of any LB's with Shazier's combination of production and athleticism (coming out of college) who have been anything less than top-notch LB's in the NFL?

 

[FearTheBeard]

hoops, honest question: Can you think of any LB's with Shazier's combination of production and athleticism (coming out of college) who have been anything less than top-notch LB's in the NFL?

Aaron Curry? Not the same level of athlete but the closest I can think of. Hoops is really old tho, sure he has some.

 

[hoops]

Damn I didn't know 38 was one foot in the grave...lb play at the pro level is all about instincts...when you find a guy that is a high end athlete and shows likewise high level positional instincts you are cooking with gas...

I'm not gonna overdraft a guy that shows half of that...

 

[Hungover]

As others have mentioned, will be long gone before pick 19 - if he goes to the right situation will be an absolute star. The fact he's shot up draft boards across the league in a draft this deep is testament to what he offers.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Damn I didn't know 38 was one foot in the grave...lb play at the pro level is all about instincts...when you find a guy that is a high end athlete and shows likewise high level positional instincts you are cooking with gas...

I'm not gonna overdraft a guy that shows half of that...

The point I'm trying to make is that I think you're wrong about his instincts - that he wouldn't have 144 tackes (102 solo), 23.5 TFL, 4 FF's without good instincts. Also, he did come to Ohio State as a DE, so he's still improving that aspect of his game.

 

[hoops]

The point I'm trying to make is that I think you're wrong about his instincts - that he wouldn't have 144 tackes (102 solo), 23.5 TFL, 4 FF's without good instincts. Also, he did come to Ohio State as a DE, so he's still improving that aspect of his game.

the college production doesnt mean a whole lot to me...i think he shows some instincts but more athlete at the collegiate level than instincts...and if you think i'm wrong on it well no worries...

i dont see special here