Abramson: Dolphins to seek "upgrade" to Miller, notes on Tannehill, Jordan, D. Thomas

[cleezy13]

If Miller gets the carries he will be an above 1000 yard rusher. He had some 170-180 carries this year. Top rushing backs get 250-300 rushes per season. His average on the season is 4.0/carry. And since Tannehill gets the benefit of the doubt with the OL so should Miller. Improve the line, give him the carries and he will be easily above 1000 yards and close to 1500 yards per season. Can he run for a better average of 4.0? You bet. In his limited duties in 2012 he had an average of 4.9/carry.

In the last game against the Jets he rushed for 77 Yards for a 4.3 y/c average on 17 carries against a D which allowed only 88 yards per game for an average of 3.4 y/c. The Jets D is #3 against the rush. If you give Miller the opportunity he will get his yards

A RB needs carries to be effective. He carried the ball only 5 times for 15 or more times. His averages in these games are: 4.9, 6.5, 3.3, 4.1, 4.3
But he also had 10 or less carries in 9 (!!!!!) of the games. His averages were: 0.3, 7.8, 2.1, 4.8, 0.3, 4.3, 0.8, 3.3, 2.7.

We faced 3 of the top 10 rush defenses last year. In 2 of them he rushed above what they allowed (Jets 2nd game and Bengals) in y/c.
My suggestion: dump Thomas and get a good back up for Miller and let him at least have a chance to be the featured RB. WE are ready to toss a guy out who didn't even had a chance yet.

100% correct we have our back miller will be very good with an average line and like you said if he had around 250-300 carries then you would easily see a 1,000 yard rusher even with a horrible line! I cant stand how everybody think hes stinks it mind boggling averaging 4 and 4.9 yards a carry back to back years on this line is pretty damn good. With that being said Im not a fan of Thomas.

 

[maralieus]

Carlos ****ing Hyde!!!!!

 

[TheWalrus]

Which is funny because our red zone efficiency was actually quite good -- our problem was an inability to move the ball down the field consistently.

It's because of Tannehill. His ability was the x-factor, as hoops points out. The small windows you find in the red zone were not news to him given he faced them on basically every snap, like swinging a heavy bat. Also I think Sherman's play calling down there was underrated. He'd brainstorm dumb plays early in drives and at midfield but he got his act together in the red zone most of the time.

Also I think it's important to remember that we started off the season on an abnormally good streak in the red zone. I remember researching it and we were on a pace to far exceed any red zone efficiency that a team had been able to manage over a whole season going back like three or four years. It was bound to come back to Earth and it did. We ended up 11th in the NFL in the red zone, same as we did in 2012.

Awsi Dooger made an observation a while back that stuck with me and going back and rewatching things I think he was absolutely right. Tannehill tends to play better as a drive goes on. In other words we had more than our share of really short drives, many of them ugly and/or pitiful. But if we got rolling, and especially if Tannehill got rolling, his tendency was to get looser and more aggressive. I'd love to know exactly what was accounting for that.

 

[mrbunglez]

They need to draft Jeremy Hill!

 

[So Be]

Ive already compared my notes to theirs on many occasions, and that's why I stopped subscribing to that site years ago. I'm just suggesting you validate the stats you are trying to use as a measuring stick. Sacks can be easily measured, QB hits are somewhat iffy, and the whole "hurries/pressures" is completely ambiguous and unmethodical on PFF.

If you would like to compare notes for a game, I'd love to see what we come up with vs the PFF. I suggest the 2nd Buffalo game or the Baltimore game if you want to compare pressures - games where we were destroyed by the pass rush.

Sounds like some fun, although subjecting me to watch the 2nd Buff game yet again may be considered "cruel and unusual punishment." :)

Not sure I can do it today but I'm sure I can do it tomorrow.

 

[JRYCRL]

I think rb position would be fine if line gets fixed. Thomas can go tho. Competition could be good for Miller. I never thought muxh of Thomas.i would be all for bringing in a Ben Tate if it were possible.

Not that Miller and Thomas will be confused with McCoy, Peterson, or Lynch but seriously, the line was a disaster when Martin and Incognito were blocking and slightly better when those two were gone. I saw our mock pick being the OT from Alabama.... I hope he's there. He's a mean SOB.

 

[Zounds]

Sounds like some fun, although subjecting me to watch the 2nd Buff game yet again may be considered "cruel and unusual punishment." :)

Not sure I can do it today but I'm sure I can do it tomorrow.

It might be a a week or so before I can get the chance to do it, but I'll look at the second Buffalo game and I'll track QB hits and pressures, and mark the down/drive/time or each. We'll compare.

 

[iwastherein1972]

lamar miller is a cane, which to about half this fan base means he is Superman and can do no wrong.

Au contraire. He AND thomas are second-rate NFL backs. Draft Tre Mason

 

[So Be]

It might be a a week or so before I can get the chance to do it, but I'll look at the second Buffalo game and I'll track QB hits and pressures, and mark the down/drive/time or each. We'll compare.

I'll tell ya that this is FRAKIN BRUTAL to watch again. I was anxious to do this, and just did a rough watch so far into the start of the 2nd quarter. I will fine tune it. Just a rough preview.

1st Quarter, 1st possession- 3rd an 5- DT got killed by S Searcy for a sack. He got run over.

2nd possession, 3rd and 13- Stunt by K Williams, McKennie looked to be in concrete, did not even put an arm out for a token "block." DT was out of position in flowing into the line, and RT got killed again. Not an easy block by either but, most would do better. Sack #2.

3rd possession, 1st and 10- Hit from inside K Williams. 2nd down- hurry from Mario with RT being flushed out of the pocket.

After that, a hurry given by McKennie on 3rd and 13.

2ns Quarter- 3rd and 3- Jail break sack. No one blocked.

I'm gonna hold up on the rest for now. I'm feeling sick. JK/lol

 

[dabeastdabone]

People believe Mason will drop to the second, I'm good drafting him there.

 

[futurescout]

I heard Abramson talk on the conference call with Bill Lazor... god he sounds like the biggest nerd ever... No way this guy ever played sports.. not even trying to be mean.. but man...

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Awsi Dooger made an observation a while back that stuck with me and going back and rewatching things I think he was absolutely right. Tannehill tends to play better as a drive goes on. In other words we had more than our share of really short drives, many of them ugly and/or pitiful. But if we got rolling, and especially if Tannehill got rolling, his tendency was to get looser and more aggressive. I'd love to know exactly what was accounting for that.

Well, I make tons of first half bets so I need guys who don't waste drives and put points on the board quickly. Tannehill was actually very good out of the block late in his college career so I don't understand why it's changed and we spend so much time with zero to few points on the board.

I probably have a lower opinion of Tannehill than proper simply because I have a distaste for comebacks. IMO, comebacks are for suckers. Give me the lead and I'll take my chances. I know the math. Every time it gets to halftime the first thing in my mind is the halftime spread and the adjusted likelihood of winning straight up. It's ridiculous that the networks don't include that type of thing. The early '70s Dolphins of my youth were marvelously greedy at the outset of every game, establishing superiority and all but demoralizing the opposition. Tannehill seems like a nice guy who doesn't want to get anybody annoyed with him. Makes no sense why we don't have games in which we throttle someone from the outset. Even if it's not there physically it should happen by accident. Then when the Jets were all but imploding in the first game we still didn't mash them by halftime.

Regarding Lamar Miller, the biggest Canes fans on this site had a more real world evaluation of him than plenty of the homers. It was the opposite with Gillislee, who had lots of Gator fans overboard in praise, from what I remember. Florida fans are normally accurate with their own products but that was an exception.

Miller is okay for what he started out as, a 4th round pick who can handle 10-12 carries per game. He should be the B option. His lack of tackle breaking ability isn't as meaningful when he's used at midfield as a change of pace guy. He can't be relied upon in short yardage or goal line. The inflated yards per carry as a rookie was largely because he avoided those situations. Ireland might have been fooled, and Philbin also.

Makes no sense why Miller wandered around on those two breakaway runs. His tendency in the open field as a Cane was eyes forward and a straight ahead all out sprint.

 

[dlockz]

Well, I make tons of first half bets so I need guys who don't waste drives and put points on the board quickly. Tannehill was actually very good out of the block late in his college career so I don't understand why it's changed and we spend so much time with zero to few points on the board.

I probably have a lower opinion of Tannehill than proper simply because I have a distaste for comebacks. IMO, comebacks are for suckers. Give me the lead and I'll take my chances. I know the math. Every time it gets to halftime the first thing in my mind is the halftime spread and the adjusted likelihood of winning straight up. It's ridiculous that the networks don't include that type of thing. The early '70s Dolphins of my youth were marvelously greedy at the outset of every game, establishing superiority and all but demoralizing the opposition. Tannehill seems like a nice guy who doesn't want to get anybody annoyed with him. Makes no sense why we don't have games in which we throttle someone from the outset. Even if it's not there physically it should happen by accident. Then when the Jets were all but imploding in the first game we still didn't mash them by halftime.

Regarding Lamar Miller, the biggest Canes fans on this site had a more real world evaluation of him than plenty of the homers. It was the opposite with Gillislee, who had lots of Gator fans overboard in praise, from what I remember. Florida fans are normally accurate with their own products but that was an exception.

Miller is okay for what he started out as, a 4th round pick who can handle 10-12 carries per game. He should be the B option. His lack of tackle breaking ability isn't as meaningful when he's used at midfield as a change of pace guy. He can't be relied upon in short yardage or goal line. The inflated yards per carry as a rookie was largely because he avoided those situations. Ireland might have been fooled, and Philbin also.

Makes no sense why Miller wandered around on those two breakaway runs. His tendency in the open field as a Cane was eyes forward and a straight ahead all out sprint.

Miller like you say is fine as committee or backup just not sure why we didn't keep Bush and use Miller in a more productive manner. Too many people gulped the kool aid this year , esp when Pouncey spole about 1500 yards. I explained how ridiculous this number was this offseason but of course it was only because Im negative that I didn't see him running for the second best rushing performance in dolphin history

 

[Phinatic8u]

I just hope with a OC that utilizes the run more, and when it's time to pass gets more agressive.

RT was to raw and underdeveloped to be throwing the ball as much as he did. Seattle and SF is how football should be played. That's how I want Miami to play.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

It's because of Tannehill. His ability was the x-factor, as hoops points out. The small windows you find in the red zone were not news to him given he faced them on basically every snap, like swinging a heavy bat. Also I think Sherman's play calling down there was underrated. He'd brainstorm dumb plays early in drives and at midfield but he got his act together in the red zone most of the time.

So you're saying that running the the "Have the QB throw fastballs through moving foot-long hoops" offense was actually a benefit in the redzone?

Works for me.