One more game analysis that might be of some interest. This is from Advanced NFL Stats, which calculates "efficiency ratings" of all teams. The site had rated Miami's chances higher than most, down the playoff stretch.
This weekend, they give Baltimore a 52% probability of winning, based on efficiency ratings over the second half of the season. Using the entire season's numbers, Miami is actually favored to win (at 56%).
Advanced NFL Stats: Wildcard Game Probabilities
This weekend, they give Baltimore a 52% probability of winning, based on efficiency ratings over the second half of the season. Using the entire season's numbers, Miami is actually favored to win (at 56%).
Advanced NFL Stats: Wildcard Game Probabilities