I remember when you were building this model in VIP, I commented on it and was impressed with where you were thinking. The app, is really impressive! Well done. Not sure I completely understand it, but you put a lot of math/statistical analysis in it, and I have always been a big fan of your work, so well done there.
However, that’s not the approach I was taking, nor was it the point of my thread. That is more your thing, and more your thread which you have already created and are welcome to continue of course.
However, my point was a bit less mathematically oriented, in that I feel like as much math as one wants to apply, at some point, much like in golf, there is a certain amount of randomness, and quite frankly luck that one needs to truly draft a transcendent QB, nd that is really almost impossible to model. Mine was more observation and intuition based by arming oneself with the gift of hindsight.
So, by considering whether or not we should trade up for the number 1 pick I selected two main data points:
1. How many of the number 1 overall picks (regardless of position) would actually have been worth trading up for from position number 5? So without being totally focused on statistics, which were a factor, it was also more based on the gift of hindsight, factoring in basic factors as: Career, playoff wins, longevity, accomplishment, etc. which doesn’t require a lot of math to ascertain.
2. How many QB’s picked in the first round over the past 20 years would you I.e. the reader be willing to trade 3 1st round picks or more for which is probably what it would cost if the Bengals would even entertain us moving up from 5-1. Again, not statistics based, but more picking out names that you could say, “Yes, this guy.”. You know, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, etc. guys like that. What we learned from this, is intuitively, based on hindsight, very few of the QB’s who went in the first round over the past 20 years would have been worth trading up for either because they had their career shortened by injury, or didn’t live up to expectations, or didn’t win superbowls, weren’t transcendent players, didn’t live up to the hype, etc.
Now to be fair, if anyone knew what Rodgers would have been, or Brees for instance, or Brady, they wouldn’t have slipped so far down which is kind of what your point is. Chicago thought Trubisky was better than Mahomes and Watson, and as one of our brothers pointed out, if you had based things on the scouting reports alone, Watson had many of the same things written about him in terms of his weaknesses as did Herbert and Love for example Not to mention someone like Lamar Jackson For instance.
My opinion after all of this was simply that based on looking at all of this historical info, it is unlikely that Joe Burrow would be worth the price of trading up for from 5 to 1 because there is a small amount of players in the past 20 years much less the history of the NFL that turned out to be worth that kind of trade.
Anyways, great app!
