OK... Checking out the matchup stats here:
http://www.nfl.com/matchups/last5/MIA-OVERALL-matchup.htm
...trying to find numbers that jump out at me either way...
Before the looking at these stats I was going to Pick against the Phins for the first time this year. Mainly because the stats are very even in most ways, leaving homefield advatage being the only edge for either team. (Also, I don't want to pick against Sporstguy).
However, after looking at the matchup for a while, one stat jumped out at me:
Sacks Allowed:
Miami 5
Denver 17
This tells me that they are 3 times more vulnerable to the pass rush than us. And if you put too much pressure on him, Brian will make mistakes (sometimes without pressure). With Surtain back, that stat alone was almost enough to sway my decision.
Now add to it this stat...
Pics:
Miami Defense 9
Denver Defense 4
The Phins D generates and/or takes advantage of opposing QB mistakes more than twice as much as Denver.
And lastly..
Points Scored:
Miami 156
Denver 124
32 more points over 5 games than Denver... Yet Miami's D has only allowed 2 more points then Denver's.
So now that I see all things aren't even, (advantage miami) I am picking the Phins...
Miami 31-18
Ricky rushes for 111 yds.