infiltrateib
TV Doctor
1. Pressure Losman with a variety of blitzes: since the Houston game (which can be discounted due to the fact the Texans wouldn't be ranked in the BCS), Losman's completion percentage has hovered around 40-45%. Eric Moulds has 80 yards, and their leading receiver is their #3 "couldn't find anyone else" Josh Reed. The bad news is, they played against Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Atlanta, all top-10 passing defenses.
The big intangible working in our favor is the way we've handled young QBs over the years. Even in a vanilla defensive system, we kept Carson Palmer to 150/0TD/1INT, Roethlisberger to 160/1TD/1INT, McCown to 160/1/0, and the other McCown to 160/1TD/2INT in 2004. The history is consistent over the last five years. Very, very rarely have young QBs come in and thrived. Look for Saban to scheme in some interesting S/LB blitzes and move JT around. The Bills currently have given up 11 sacks, and that total should go up by 2-3 this Sunday.
Losman is mobile, but he's not going to run away from Zach/Crowder/Seau (if he plays). I'd recommend mixing up zone/press and making Losman step back and read the D while facing the rush. Shulters should have a field day at safety if the Bills end up 2 scores behind. Additionally, one thing the Dolphins force from young QBs is FUMBLES. JT has a knack for swiping from the blindside as he makes the sack. Look for Losman to give one up to us. If we can win the field position war, that might be deep in Bills territory.
2. Dominate the line of scrimmage. Control McGahee and control the game.: this win will be in the trenches. We can force the Bills to be one-dimensional (which is what they've been thus far this year). Traylor has been playing exceptionally well, even if his statistics don't convey it (rarely do a DT's stats show his worth). We need to move JT around in Saban's over/under and get him isolated on RTs and LTs without a chip. JT has shown the ability to squirm/bolt through 2 blockers with ease, and that trend should continue against Gandy.
If Traylor can take up Vallarial/Anderson inside, Zach will be free to roam and make his customary 10-15 tackles. McGahee is a bruising runner, but we've already put the lockdown on every RB we've faced thus far, including the ones running behind Denver's stellar o-line.
Losman is going to make mistakes if the Bills let him loose, so I suspect their gameplan will be based around McGahee. He runs surprisingly well around the edges and has the speed to turn the corner. Saban will be ready, and if he can control Willis at the LOS and not let him break into the secondary (where he will easily run over our DBs), the Bills will struggle offensively.
Without Spikes in the middle, we should be able to have success running Ronnie Brown inside. I wouldn't count on any success from Chambers this game, unless Linehan can get him one-on-one with McGee. Clements is an excellent corner and Frerotte will be hard-pressed to find an open shoulder. If I were Linehan, I'd throw standup WR screens to Chambers until Clements scoots up, and then I'd air out a few deep balls to let Chambers fight for it. If it's uncatchable, it's catchable to Chris Chambers (and if it's catchable by a third grader, it's uncatchable to Chris Chambers).
We match up well because our weakness is deep in the secondary, and our strength is our run defense. The Bills can't throw it deep with Losman at the helm, and McGahee will not win up front if we don't have to worry about a vertical threat.
3. Play to win, not to not lose: I do honestly expect to go up two scores by halftime, likely by 10. I think Nick will be prepared for this game, and I think we'll put 8 in the box in a variety of formations to make Losman drop back and throw it. I'd prefer to have them go with the inexperienced Losman, who I think has a good chance to throw a pick or two, than Holcomb.
If we can get up by two scores, we need to protect the lead by scoring, not by running it up the middle every down. I expect that Saban/Linehan will have a good mix of play-action in the gameplan, since the Bills know they're giving up over 5YPC and know we'll be targeting the center of that front-7.
If we can get up by 3 scores, I expect to see a lot of Ronnie Brown. If we can run successfully up the gut, which every other team has, it will open up screens and play-action that could make this embarassing.
Prediction: Frerotte has an efficient but lackluster day--something around 12/25 for 150 and 1TD. Ronnie gets his 100yd game at 115 with 1TD. Chambers is ~40-50yds. Same with Booker. WW ("Dubs") pitches in another 50. Losman fumbles once, tosses 1 pick, and gets benched for Holcomb in the 4th. McGahee scores once, ends up with below 100 rushing. Lee Evans has one big catch over the top. Dolphins win 27-10.
The big intangible working in our favor is the way we've handled young QBs over the years. Even in a vanilla defensive system, we kept Carson Palmer to 150/0TD/1INT, Roethlisberger to 160/1TD/1INT, McCown to 160/1/0, and the other McCown to 160/1TD/2INT in 2004. The history is consistent over the last five years. Very, very rarely have young QBs come in and thrived. Look for Saban to scheme in some interesting S/LB blitzes and move JT around. The Bills currently have given up 11 sacks, and that total should go up by 2-3 this Sunday.
Losman is mobile, but he's not going to run away from Zach/Crowder/Seau (if he plays). I'd recommend mixing up zone/press and making Losman step back and read the D while facing the rush. Shulters should have a field day at safety if the Bills end up 2 scores behind. Additionally, one thing the Dolphins force from young QBs is FUMBLES. JT has a knack for swiping from the blindside as he makes the sack. Look for Losman to give one up to us. If we can win the field position war, that might be deep in Bills territory.
2. Dominate the line of scrimmage. Control McGahee and control the game.: this win will be in the trenches. We can force the Bills to be one-dimensional (which is what they've been thus far this year). Traylor has been playing exceptionally well, even if his statistics don't convey it (rarely do a DT's stats show his worth). We need to move JT around in Saban's over/under and get him isolated on RTs and LTs without a chip. JT has shown the ability to squirm/bolt through 2 blockers with ease, and that trend should continue against Gandy.
If Traylor can take up Vallarial/Anderson inside, Zach will be free to roam and make his customary 10-15 tackles. McGahee is a bruising runner, but we've already put the lockdown on every RB we've faced thus far, including the ones running behind Denver's stellar o-line.
Losman is going to make mistakes if the Bills let him loose, so I suspect their gameplan will be based around McGahee. He runs surprisingly well around the edges and has the speed to turn the corner. Saban will be ready, and if he can control Willis at the LOS and not let him break into the secondary (where he will easily run over our DBs), the Bills will struggle offensively.
Without Spikes in the middle, we should be able to have success running Ronnie Brown inside. I wouldn't count on any success from Chambers this game, unless Linehan can get him one-on-one with McGee. Clements is an excellent corner and Frerotte will be hard-pressed to find an open shoulder. If I were Linehan, I'd throw standup WR screens to Chambers until Clements scoots up, and then I'd air out a few deep balls to let Chambers fight for it. If it's uncatchable, it's catchable to Chris Chambers (and if it's catchable by a third grader, it's uncatchable to Chris Chambers).
We match up well because our weakness is deep in the secondary, and our strength is our run defense. The Bills can't throw it deep with Losman at the helm, and McGahee will not win up front if we don't have to worry about a vertical threat.
3. Play to win, not to not lose: I do honestly expect to go up two scores by halftime, likely by 10. I think Nick will be prepared for this game, and I think we'll put 8 in the box in a variety of formations to make Losman drop back and throw it. I'd prefer to have them go with the inexperienced Losman, who I think has a good chance to throw a pick or two, than Holcomb.
If we can get up by two scores, we need to protect the lead by scoring, not by running it up the middle every down. I expect that Saban/Linehan will have a good mix of play-action in the gameplan, since the Bills know they're giving up over 5YPC and know we'll be targeting the center of that front-7.
If we can get up by 3 scores, I expect to see a lot of Ronnie Brown. If we can run successfully up the gut, which every other team has, it will open up screens and play-action that could make this embarassing.
Prediction: Frerotte has an efficient but lackluster day--something around 12/25 for 150 and 1TD. Ronnie gets his 100yd game at 115 with 1TD. Chambers is ~40-50yds. Same with Booker. WW ("Dubs") pitches in another 50. Losman fumbles once, tosses 1 pick, and gets benched for Holcomb in the 4th. McGahee scores once, ends up with below 100 rushing. Lee Evans has one big catch over the top. Dolphins win 27-10.