Analysis: Trent Green stats vs '07 sked (includes projections) | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Analysis: Trent Green stats vs '07 sked (includes projections)

finsforce

finsforce

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Since I have an inordinate amount of spare time on my hands, I thought about researching and analyzing Trent Green's career statistics. In doing so, I thought to myself how interesting it would be to delineate his career statistics against the Dolphins' 2007 team schedule. The result is the thread you are now reading. So, without further ado, here are your (ahem) new QB stats.

First, let's look at his numbers by seasons in which he played at least one regular season game:

1997 Washington Redskins: 1 G (0 GS)
  • Passing: 0/1 (0.0%), 0 YD (LG 0, 0 20+ YD, 0 40+ YD), 0.0 Y/G, 0.0 Y/A, 0 TD, 0 INT, 39.6 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 0 RUSH, 0 YD (LG 0, 0 20+ YD, 0 for 1st Down), 0.0 Y/G, 0.0 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 0 Sacks, 0 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 0 Fumbles, 0 Lost
1998 Washington Redskins: 15 G (14 GS)
  • Passing: 278/509 (54.6%), 3441 YD (LG 75, 40 20+ YD, 7 40+ YD), 229.4 Y/G, 6.76 Y/A, 23 TD, 11 INT, 81.8 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 42 RUSH, 117 YD (LG 13, 0 20+ YD, 8 for 1st Down), 7.8 Y/G, 2.8 Y/R, 2 TD
  • Sacks: 49 Sacks, 338 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 14 Fumbles, 7 Lost
2000 St. Louis Rams: 8 G (5 GS)
  • Passing: 145/240 (60.4%), 2063 YD (LG 64, 30 20+ YD, 7 40+ YD), 257.9 Y/G, 8.60 Y/A, 16 TD, 5 INT, 101.8 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 20 RUSH, 69 YD (LG 18, 0 20+ YD, 6 for 1st Down), 8.6 Y/G, 3.5 Y/R, 1 TD
  • Sacks: 24 Sacks, 145 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 3 Fumbles, 2 Lost
2001 Kansas City Chiefs: 16 G (16 GS)
  • Passing: 296/523 (56.6%), 3783 YD (LG 67, 51 20+ YD, 12 40+ YD), 236.4 Y/G, 7.23 Y/A, 17 TD, 24 INT, 71.1 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 35 RUSH, 158 YD (LG 16, 0 20+ YD, 8 for 1st Down), 9.9 Y/G, 4.5 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 39 Sacks, 198 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 11 Fumbles, 4 Lost
2002 Kansas City Chiefs: 16 G (16 GS)
  • Passing: 287/470 (61.1%), 3690 YD (LG 99, 46 20+ YD, 13 40+ YD), 230.6 Y/G, 7.85 Y/A, 26 TD, 13 INT, 92.6 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 31 RUSH, 225 YD (LG 24, 2 20+ YD, 11 for 1st Down), 14.1 Y/G, 7.3 Y/R, 1 TD
  • Sacks: 26 Sacks, 141 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 1 Fumbles, 0 Lost
2003 Kansas City Chiefs: 16 G (16 GS)
  • Passing: 330/523 (63.1%), 4039 YD (LG 67, 54 20+ YD, 8 40+ YD), 252.4 Y/G, 7.72 Y/A, 24 TD, 12 INT, 92.6 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 26 RUSH, 83 YD (LG 14, 0 20+ YD, 8 for 1st Down), 5.2 Y/G, 3.2 Y/R, 2 TD
  • Sacks: 20 Sacks, 130 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 5 Fumbles, 1 Lost
2004 Kansas City Chiefs: 16 G (16 GS)
  • Passing: 369/556 (66.4%), 4591 YD (LG 70, 59 20+ YD, 9 40+ YD), 286.9 Y/G, 8.26 Y/A, 27 TD, 17 INT, 95.2 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 25 RUSH, 85 YD (LG 13, 0 20+ YD, 4 for 1st Down), 5.3 Y/G, 3.4 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 32 Sacks, 227 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 11 Fumbles, 4 Lost
2005 Kansas City Chiefs: 16 G (16 GS)
  • Passing: 317/507 (62.5%), 4014 YD (LG 60, 51 20+ YD, 11 40+ YD), 250.9 Y/G, 7.92 Y/A, 17 TD, 10 INT, 90.1 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 35 RUSH, 82 YD (LG 13, 0 20+ YD, 9 for 1st Down), 5.1 Y/G, 2.3 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 32 Sacks, 204 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 8 Fumbles, 4 Lost
2006 Kansas City Chiefs: 8 G (8 GS)
  • Passing: 121/198 (61.1%), 1342 YD (LG 39, 13 20+ YD, 0 40+ YD), 167.8 Y/G, 6.78 Y/A, 7 TD, 9 INT, 74.1 QB Rating
  • Rushing:19 RUSH, 59 YD (LG 10, 0 20+ YD, 5 for 1st Down), 7.4 Y/G, 3.1 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 24 Sacks, 127 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 5 Fumbles, 3 Lost
CAREER TOTAL: 112 G (107 GS)
  • Passing: 2143/3527 (60.8%), 26,963 YD (LG 99, 344 20+ YD, 67 40+ YD), 240.7 Y/G, 7.64 Y/A, 157 TD, 101 INT, 87.5 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 233 RUSH, 878 YD (LG 24, 2 20+ YD, 59 for 1st Down), 7.8 Y/G, 3.8 Y/R, 6 TD
  • Sacks: 246 Sacks, 1510 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 58 Fumbles, 25 Lost
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There are a few things I would like to point out regarding those stats:
  1. Trent surpassed 4000 passing yards in a season three times in his career (2003-2005) and may have done it for the fourth consecutive year last year had it not been for his concussion.
  2. His completion percentage has been at or above 60% in all but two seasons in which he played a minimum of 8 games.
  3. He passed for an average of at least 229.4 Y/G in every season except his injury-plagued season of 2006.
  4. A total of 227 passes were completed for 20-39 yards and 67 were completed for 40 or more yards.
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Now, let's analyze those career stats in various situations and how they apply to the Dolphins 2007 regular season schedule:

HOME vs. AWAY (Dolphins have 7 games at Dolphin Stadium with 1 "home" game in London, along with 8 road games in 2007)

Home (58 G)
  • Passing: 1054/1708 (61.7%), 13,421 YD, 231.4 Y/G, 7.9 Y/A, 78 TD, 45 INT, 90.5 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 138 RUSH, 539 YD, 9.3 Y/G, 3.9 Y/R, 3 TD
  • Sacks: 138 Sacks, 838 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 35 Fumbles, 15 Lost
Away (54 G)
  • Passing: 1089/1819 (59.9%), 13,542 YD, 250.8 Y/G, 7.4 Y/A, 79 TD, 56 INT, 84.6 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 95 RUSH, 339 YD, 6.3 Y/G, 3.6 Y/R, 3 TD
  • Sacks: 108 Sacks, 672 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 23 Fumbles, 10 Lost
DAY vs NIGHT GAMES (Dolphins play 15 of their 16 games this season in daylight; lone primetime game - the MNF game vs Pittsburgh)

Day (96 G)
  • Passing: 1825/2986 (61.1%), 22,813 YD, 237.6 Y/G, 7.6 Y/A, 135 TD, 88 INT, 87.6 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 204 RUSH, 770 YD, 8.0 Y/G, 3.8 Y/R, 5 TD
  • Sacks: 211 Sacks, 1310 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 53 Fumbles, 23 Lost
Night (16 G)
  • Passing: 318/541 (58.8%), 4150 YD, 259.4 Y/G, 7.7 Y/A, 22 TD, 13 INT, 86.6 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 29 RUSH, 108 YD, 6.8 Y/G, 3.7 Y/R, 1 TD
  • Sacks: 35 Sacks, 200 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 5 Fumbles, 2 Lost
GRASS vs TURF (Dolphins play 13 games on grass, 3 on turf in 2007)

Grass (94 G)
  • Passing: 1808/2960 (61.1%), 22,578 YD, 240.2 Y/G, 7.6 Y/A, 138 TD, 85 INT, 88.3 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 207 RUSH, 767 YD, 8.2 Y/G, 3.7 Y/R, 6 TD
  • Sacks: 197 Sacks, 1226 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 46 Fumbles, 18 Lost
Turf (8 G)
  • Passing: 335/567 (59.1%), 4385 YD, 243.6 Y/G, 7.7 Y/A, 19 TD, 16 INT, 83.0 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 26 RUSH, 111 YD, 6.2 Y/G, 4.3 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 49 Sacks, 284 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 12 Fumbles, 7 Lost
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Overall, it seems as though Green plays better at home, during the day, and on a natural grass surface. Moving on...

We have finally arrived at the pivotal moment of this thread - Trent Green's career statistics against the Dolphins' 2007 opponents. They are as follows:

Baltimore Ravens (3 G, 3 GS; 2-1 record)
  • Passing: 53/86 (61.6%), 560 YD, 186.7 Y/G, 6.5 Y/A, 3 TD, 2 INT, 82.5 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 8 RUSH, 31 YD, 10.3 Y/G, 3.9 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 9 Sacks, 63 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 2 Fumbles, 1 Lost
Buffalo Bills (3 G, 3 GS; 2-1 record)
  • Passing: 55/95 (57.9%), 690 YD, 230.0 Y/G, 7.3 Y/A, 2 TD, 3 INT, 74.5 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 7 RUSH, 30 YD, 10.0 Y/G, 4.3 Y/R, 1 TD
  • Sacks: 7 Sacks, 59 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 1 Fumbles, 1 Lost
Cincinnati Bengals (3 G, 3 GS; 2-1 record)
  • Passing: 62/86 (72.1%), 747 YD, 249.0 Y/G, 8.7 Y/A, 3 TD, 1 INT, 105.1 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 9 RUSH, 20 YD, 6.7 Y/G, 2.2 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 6 Sacks, 42 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 2 Fumbles, 0 Lost
Cleveland Browns (3 G, 3 GS; 2-1 record)
  • Passing: 73/103 (70.9%), 941 YD, 313.7 Y/G, 9.1 Y/A, 8 TD, 2 INT, 117.0 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 3 RUSH, 17 YD, 5.7 Y/G, 5.7 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 5 Sacks, 22 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 1 Fumbles, 1 Lost
Dallas Cowboys (3 G, 3 GS; 0-3 record)
  • Passing: 54/96 (56.3%), 756 YD, 252.0 Y/G, 7.9 Y/A, 3 TD, 2 INT, 83.5 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 4 RUSH, 21 YD, 7.0 Y/G, 5.3 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 7 Sacks, 48 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 2 Fumbles, 1 Lost
Houston Texans (3 G, 3 GS; 2-1 record)
  • Passing: 56/87 (64.4%), 708 YD, 236.0 Y/G, 8.1 Y/A, 7 TD, 4 INT, 97.3 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 4 RUSH, 17 YD, 5.7 Y/G, 4.3 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 4 Sacks, 32 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 1 Fumbles, 0 Lost
New England Patriots (3 G, 3 GS; 1-2 record)
  • Passing: 62/93 (66.7%), 853 YD, 284.3 Y/G, 9.2 Y/A, 6 TD, 3 INT, 103.9 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 7 RUSH, 11 YD, 3.7 Y/G, 1.6 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 9 Sacks, 64 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 1 Fumbles, 0 Lost
New York Giants (5 G, 5 GS; 2-3 record)
  • Passing: 97/163 (59.5%), 1065 YD, 213.0 Y/G, 6.5 Y/A, 7 TD, 3 INT, 85.5 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 16 RUSH, 92 YD, 18.4 Y/G, 5.8 Y/R, 2 TD
  • Sacks: 11 Sacks, 70 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 1 Fumbles, 1 Lost
New York Jets (3 G, 3 GS; 2-1 record)
  • Passing: 54/90 (60.0%), 639 YD, 213.0 Y/G, 7.1 Y/A, 3 TD, 5 INT, 69.6 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 3 RUSH, 0 YD, 0.0 Y/G, 0.0 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 5 Sacks, 35 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 2 Fumbles, 1 Lost
Oakland Raiders (13 G, 13 GS; 10-3 record)
  • Passing: 230/400 (57.5%), 2914 YD, 224.2 Y/G, 7.3 Y/A, 15 TD, 9 INT, 83.5 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 30 RUSH, 96 YD, 7.4 Y/G, 3.2 Y/R, 1 TD
  • Sacks: 26 Sacks, 141 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 7 Fumbles, 4 Lost
Philadelphia Eagles (5 G, 4 GS; 2-3 record)
  • Passing: 66/120 (55.0%), 718 YD, 143.6 Y/G, 6.0 Y/A, 4 TD, 4 INT, 70.1 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 6 RUSH, 17 YD, 3.4 Y/G, 2.8 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 13 Sacks, 73 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 3 Fumbles, 2 Lost
Pittsburgh Steelers (2 G, 2 GS; 1-1 record)
  • Passing: 31/54 (57.4%), 251 YD, 125.5 Y/G, 4.6 Y/A, 1 TD, 3 INT, 52.3 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 4 RUSH, 12 YD, 6.0 Y/G, 3.0 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 5 Sacks, 22 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 0 Fumbles, 0 Lost
Washington Redskins (3 G, 3 GS; 2-1 record)
  • Passing: 59/89 (66.3%), 854 YD, 284.7 Y/G, 9.6 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 INT, 115.1 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 7 RUSH, 30 YD, 10.0 Y/G, 4.3 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 8 Sacks, 26 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 1 Fumbles, 0 Lost
CAREER TOTAL (52 games vs Dolphins 2007 opponents):
  • Passing: 952/1562 (60.9%), 11,696 YD, 224.9 Y/G, 7.5 Y/A, 68 TD, 42 INT, 87.4 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 108 RUSH, 394 YD, 7.6 Y/G, 3.6 Y/R, 4 TD
  • Sacks: 115 Sacks, 697 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 24 Fumbles, 12 Lost
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First and foremost, look at those QB rating numbers against Cincinnati, Cleveland, Houston, New England, and Washington! Trent has a winning record against 8 of the 13 opponents he will face this season. The only team he has yet to defeat is the Dallas Cowboys, though two of the three losses came when he was a member of the Redskins (who usually can't beat the 'Boys). Please note that all games played against the above teams came in the regular season.

Now for some fantasy football fun! Using the above career totals against this year's opponents, I present to you the projected totals for Trent Green this season:

PROJECTED TOTAL FOR 2007
  • Passing: 293/481 (60.9%), 3599 YD, 224.9 Y/G, 7.5 Y/A, 21 TD, 13 INT, 87.3 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 33 RUSH, 121 YD, 7.6 Y/G, 3.7 Y/R, 1 TD
  • Sacks: 35 Sacks, 214 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 7 Fumbles, 4 Lost
Those are fantastic projections provided that (1) Green stays healthy and (2) the offensive line plays well. The Dolphins haven't had a quarterback with stats that stellar since some guy named Dan Marino donned the aqua and orange. The only numbers I don't like are the sack and fumble projections, but they are just projections. Speaking of which...

Based on Trent's career win-loss total (30-22 in 52 career games) against the 2007 Dolphins' opponents, the projected record for the team with him as the starter is 9-7. I don't think that is unreasonable, especially since our defense is outstanding.

The Dolphins might have finally solved the problem at quarterback with the trade of Trent Green and the draft of John Beck. We'll see what the season brings us. In the meantime, I hope this thread offers you optimism about the upcoming season.
 
bro great post man...took a lot of time a research it looks. very interesting stats.
 
Man, you got some time on your hands. Great post and thorough analysis. Reading it does bring shades of optimism.

Fans know that the guy has been a very good qb. But last year injury caught up with him (and perhaps age). Yours truly is still concerned about how much gas is left in the tank for him. Needless to say last year was not impressive. Concerned yet cautiously optimistic he has one last turnaround and hurrah before Beck is ready to take control of the ship.
 
Great post, except put our defense against the same comp as you did Trent because our O won't be as proficient as KC's in it's first year, and lets see where that take our Wins/losses, you're using most KC"s defense, which I don't think has been as consistently as good as the phins over the last decade. Our D against our 07 schedule plus Trent's stat's against them should give us a better read on the record, even though I think you did a fantasic job from the Trents angle.
 
My thanks to you all for your kind comments. I do what I do for people like you - fans of the Miami Dolphins.

On a side note, MDFINFAN, I agree with you. Miami's defense during Green's KC years was better than his own team D. Having said that, KC's offense was generally better than Miami's during the same time frame. Sometimes the best defense is a better offense...

1997 Washington Redskins
Offensive Ranks: 16 (Pts scored), 4 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 23 (Pts allowed), 22 (Yards allowed)

1997 Miami Dolphins
Offensive Ranks: 13 (Pts scored), 14 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 16 (Pts allowed), 25 (Yards allowed)

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1998 Washington Redskins
Offensive Ranks: 16 (Pts scored), 4 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 23 (Pts allowed), 22 (Yards allowed)

1998 Miami Dolphins
Offensive Ranks: 16 (Pts scored), 18 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 1 (Pts allowed), 3 (Yards allowed)

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2000 St. Louis Rams
Offensive Ranks: 16 (Pts scored), 4 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 23 (Pts allowed), 22 (Yards allowed)

2000 Miami Dolphins
Offensive Ranks: 16 (Pts scored), 27 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 3 (Pts allowed), 6 (Yards allowed)

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2001 Kansas City Chiefs
Offensive Ranks: 16 (Pts scored), 4 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 23 (Pts allowed), 22 (Yards allowed)

2001 Miami Dolphins
Offensive Ranks: 8 (Pts scored), 24 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 11 (Pts allowed), 5 (Yards allowed)

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2002 Kansas City Chiefs
Offensive Ranks: 1 (Pts scored), 5 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 28 (Pts allowed), 32 (Yards allowed)

2002 Miami Dolphins
Offensive Ranks: 12 (Pts scored), 15 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 4 (Pts allowed), 3 (Yards allowed)

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2003 Kansas City Chiefs
Offensive Ranks: 1 (Pts scored), 2 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 19 (Pts allowed), 29 (Yards allowed)

2003 Miami Dolphins
Offensive Ranks: 17 (Pts scored), 24 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 3 (Pts allowed), 11 (Yards allowed)

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2004 Kansas City Chiefs
Offensive Ranks: 2 (Pts scored), 1 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 29 (Pts allowed), 31 (Yards allowed)

2004 Miami Dolphins
Offensive Ranks: 28 (Pts scored), 29 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 20 (Pts allowed), 8 (Yards allowed)

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2005 Kansas City Chiefs
Offensive Ranks: 6 (Pts scored), 1 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 16 (Pts allowed), 22 (Yards allowed)

2005 Miami Dolphins
Offensive Ranks: 16 (Pts scored), 14 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 15 (Pts allowed), 23 (Yards allowed)

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2006 Kansas City Chiefs
Offensive Ranks: 15 (Pts scored), 15 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 11 (Pts allowed), 15 (Yards allowed)

2006 Miami Dolphins
Offensive Ranks: 29 (Pts scored), 20 (Total yards)
Defensive Ranks: 5 (Pts allowed), 4 (Yards allowed)
 
Great job on putting all those numbers together for us to read. You have me all excited about the upcoming season.
 
mrodriguez said:
Great job on putting all those numbers together for us to read. You have me all excited about the upcoming season.
Click to expand...

Welcome to the board, enjoy and input as much as possible..lone live the phins..:kick:
 
wooh....that is some time and effort. I am excited about this upcoming year!!! I beleive that TG will surprise many and this team will be at least 9-7
 
that's a fun read, thanks for the compilation finsforce. i'd be happy if those projections really turn out to be on the mark, passer rating of 87, more td's than int's, it's been years.
 
Bofin said:
...i'd be happy if those projections really turn out to be on the mark, passer rating of 87, more td's than int's, it's been years.
Click to expand...

Happy? You'd be thrilled if those numbers help us get in the playoffs. Heck, if my projections turn out to be "on the mark," then I should go work for the Elias Sports Bureau or Stats, Inc. :lol:
 
Yeah a job at Elias would be suiting. You can put Finheaven down on your resume He he!! Anyway, 9-7 would be a good start if it came true seeing how last year went. But I am greedy and 9-7 won't make the playoffs in the AFC. I am just looking for a perenial playoff challenger and every year beating down the door of the Pats till we break it down!
 
Tigers2003 said:
...9-7 won't make the playoffs in the AFC. I am just looking for a perenial playoff challenger and every year beating down the door of the Pats till we break it down!
Click to expand...

I'll grant you that 9-7 won't make the playoffs. I'm implying that Green's statistics as projected could vault the team to double-digit wins, which could lead the team into the postseason. However, I think the team has to prove itself as the season progresses and a 9-7 record is a modest prediction based on the statistics at hand. Although, with numbers like those below, I think we can start banging on the Patriots' door this year :lol:

New England Patriots (3 G, 3 GS; 1-2 record)
  • Passing: 62/93 (66.7%), 853 YD, 284.3 Y/G, 9.2 Y/A, 6 TD, 3 INT, 103.9 QB Rating
  • Rushing: 7 RUSH, 11 YD, 3.7 Y/G, 1.6 Y/R, 0 TD
  • Sacks: 9 Sacks, 64 YD Lost
  • Fumbles: 1 Fumbles, 0 Lost
Click to expand...
 
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