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Analyzing Draft Trades & Current GM Trends

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Analyzing Draft Trades & Current GM Trends | Over the Cap

Analyzing Draft Trades & Current GM Trends | Over the Cap
overthecap.com

Too soon to tell:
  • Chris Grier, Miami Dolphins (hired 2019 season). Grier has been stockpiling picks alright, but not via the Draft. I suspect he is just getting started in Miami. I am staying positive that Chris and the staff can draft some great talent in this draft.
 
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It is amazing how Jimmy Johnson's simple idea of assigning values to the draft picks was so long in coming.

It seems so obvious in hindsight.
 
Thanks for posting!

I have absolutely no idea why no one is talking about the Jaguars as serious threats to move up and leapfrog the Dolphins for a QB. I don’t buy the Minshew love and they have the draft capital to do so. Plus (as just exhibited) their GM likes to move all over the draft board.
 
Aqua and Orange said:
Thanks for posting!

I have absolutely no idea why no one is talking about the Jaguars as serious threats to move up and leapfrog the Dolphins for a QB. I don’t buy the Minshew love and they have the draft capital to do so. Plus (as just exhibited) their GM likes to move all over the draft board.
Click to expand...
The reason they won't move up is they're rebuilding....they let go of some players already so they want to keep their picks and even add more if possible instead of using multiple picks to move up for one player.
 
Aqua and Orange said:
Thanks for posting!

I have absolutely no idea why no one is talking about the Jaguars as serious threats to move up and leapfrog the Dolphins for a QB. I don’t buy the Minshew love and they have the draft capital to do so. Plus (as just exhibited) their GM likes to move all over the draft board.
Click to expand...

I'm rather hoping to sell them our 1:5.
 
Aqua and Orange said:
Thanks for posting!

I have absolutely no idea why no one is talking about the Jaguars as serious threats to move up and leapfrog the Dolphins for a QB. I don’t buy the Minshew love and they have the draft capital to do so. Plus (as just exhibited) their GM likes to move all over the draft board.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Not to mention the fact that they have Yannick Ngakoue as trade bait.
 
Important Notes reflected by [my projected move], 2020 Draft Position and <historical tendency>....

  1. [Stay] Cincinnati Bengals (Mike Brown) <Stay> - "The Bengals tend to work with the Draft picks"
  2. [Stay] Washington Redskins (Ron Rivera) <???> - <Too soon to tell>
  3. [Stay] Detroit Lions (Bob Quinn) <Stay> - "Quinn hasn’t been super active with Draft trades since taking over in 2016"
  4. [Stay] New York Giants (Dave Gettleman) <Stay> - "Gettleman has served as an NFL GM for seven years with two franchises (five in Carolina, two so far in New York), and has never traded Down in either tenure. "
  5. Miami Dolphins (Chris Grier) -
  6. [Stay] Los Angeles Chargers (Tom Telesco) <Up> - "The Chargers rarely make any Draft trades, preferring instead to sit tight .... (except) when they want to add a premier talent. The Chargers have been rumored to be in love with Justin Herbert, dating all the way back to 2019 before he made his decision to return to Oregon. "
  7. [Stay] Carolina Panthers (Marty Hurney) <Stay> - "his strategy of utilizing the Draft picks his team is awarded"
  8. [Trade Down] Arizona Cardinals (Steve Keim) <Up or Down> - "the Cardinals are not afraid to move up or down early in the Draft."
  9. [Trade Down} Jacksonville Jaquars (Dave Caldwell) <Up or Down> - "In what appears to be a major rebuild, I could see them making a move up for a guy they believe could be a franchise player, or trying to land a handful of solid contributors with a trade back"

We seem to have a lot of "Stay" mentalities around us. And while a few have stated they are "open for business", I think the reality is ... a person who typically doesn't trade typically wants a King's Ransom to change their mind. So, they may be open, but they will want too much to move.

Sometimes friendships change dynamics, as well. But it is hard to determine their value if the "Seller" truly needs the pick they have at the position they have.

Reading about the Charger's love for Herbert, it is easy to see where the "Miami is intrigued by Herbert" smoke sourced. Following that simple tea leaf, I suspect Grier is looking to pull a move no one is expecting....


What if Miami trades DOWN from 5?!

What if the real move Grier is orchestrating is to get another Herbert buyer to jump in front of the Chargers?

What if Grier's real target is Love?!

Possibly even a calculated gamble is to see who is available between Tua and Love later? Being happy to take Love after Burrow, Herbert and Tua.... OR also just as happy to take Tua after Burrow, Herbert and Love?

Considering how much draft capital Grier has acquired AND taking the "tanking" glasses off for a minute....

What if Grier PREFERS trading players or trading down to keep acquiring picks as his main M.O.?

This whole time, the voiced majority of this board assumes we were acquiring picks to help trade up, if needed. And every move has been explained with us being in the market for Tua or Herbert.

What if THAT was the smokescreen and Grier is looking to trade down because they are willing to take the 4th QB and gain more picks to get the most value they can in this draft?



It certainly gives us a juicy alternative to the current narrative. One I am starting to believe more and more....


I project our real target is Love or Tua (at a discount) after trading down.
 
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Aqua and Orange said:
Thanks for posting!

I have absolutely no idea why no one is talking about the Jaguars as serious threats to move up and leapfrog the Dolphins for a QB. I don’t buy the Minshew love and they have the draft capital to do so. Plus (as just exhibited) their GM likes to move all over the draft board.
Click to expand...
I heard on one of those espn talk shows that the Jaguars are tanking for Trevor, and that this year is Minshew's to keep the seat warm.
 
phinfan40353 said:
Important Notes reflected by [my projected move], 2020 Draft Position and <historical tendency>....

  1. [Stay] Cincinnati Bengals (Mike Brown) <Stay> - "The Bengals tend to work with the Draft picks"
  2. [Stay] Washington Redskins (Ron Rivera) <???> - <Too soon to tell>
  3. [Stay] Detroit Lions (Bob Quinn) <Stay> - "Quinn hasn’t been super active with Draft trades since taking over in 2016"
  4. [Stay] New York Giants (Dave Gettleman) <Stay> - "Gettleman has served as an NFL GM for seven years with two franchises (five in Carolina, two so far in New York), and has never traded Down in either tenure. "
  5. Miami Dolphins (Chris Grier) -
  6. [Stay] Los Angeles Chargers (Tom Telesco) <Up> - "The Chargers rarely make any Draft trades, preferring instead to sit tight .... (except) when they want to add a premier talent. The Chargers have been rumored to be in love with Justin Herbert, dating all the way back to 2019 before he made his decision to return to Oregon. "
  7. [Stay] Carolina Panthers (Marty Hurney) <Stay> - "his strategy of utilizing the Draft picks his team is awarded"
  8. [Trade Down] Arizona Cardinals (Steve Keim) <Up or Down> - "the Cardinals are not afraid to move up or down early in the Draft."
  9. [Trade Down} Jacksonville Jaquars (Dave Caldwell) <Up or Down> - "In what appears to be a major rebuild, I could see them making a move up for a guy they believe could be a franchise player, or trying to land a handful of solid contributors with a trade back"

We seem to have a lot of "Stay" mentalities around us. And while a few have stated they are "open for business", I think the reality is ... a person who typically doesn't trade typically wants a King's Ransom to change their mind. So, they may be open, but they will want too much to move.

Sometimes friendships change dynamics, as well. But it is hard to determine their value if the "Seller" truly needs the pick they have at the position they have.

Reading about the Charger's love for Herbert, it is easy to see where the "Miami is intrigued by Herbert" smoke sourced. Following that simple tea leaf, I suspect Grier is looking to pull a move no one is expecting....


What if Miami trades DOWN from 5?!

What if the real move Grier is orchestrating is to get another Herbert buyer to jump in front of the Chargers?

What if Grier's real target is Love?!

Possibly even a calculated gamble is to see who is available between Tua and Love later? Being happy to take Love after Burrow, Herbert and Tua.... OR also just as happy to take Tua after Burrow, Herbert and Love?

Considering how much draft capital Grier has acquired AND taking the "tanking" glasses off for a minute....

What if Grier PREFERS trading players or trading down to keep acquiring picks as his main M.O.?

This whole time, the voiced majority of this board assumes we were acquiring picks to help trade up, if needed. And every move has been explained with us being in the market for Tua or Herbert.

What if THAT was the smokescreen and Grier is looking to trade down because they are willing to take the 4th QB and gain more picks to get the most value they can in this draft?



It certainly gives us a juicy alternative to the current narrative. One I am starting to believe more and more....


I project our real target is Love or Tua (at a discount) after trading down.
Click to expand...
Very interesting thoughts.
OR... with the bust rate of 1st round QB's so high as it is, and none of the QB's after Burrow really seen as "can't miss", what if Grier is thinking, move down a few spots, grab that left tackle, add picks NEXT year, and grab a QB prospect later? If the Dolphins evaluators don't see much difference between, say Herbert, Love, Eason, Morgan, Gordon, why not add an elite talent at 5(or first pick) and grab a prospect later?
I am not saying I advocate it, but QB's come from all over. With the top rated guys this year seeming shaky, a later round QB might be the choice. It would not surprise me.
 
Aqua and Orange said:
Thanks for posting!

I have absolutely no idea why no one is talking about the Jaguars as serious threats to move up and leapfrog the Dolphins for a QB. I don’t buy the Minshew love and they have the draft capital to do so. Plus (as just exhibited) their GM likes to move all over the draft board.
Click to expand...

Because it’s highly unlikely.Why would they spend that amount of draft capital for a broken, durability risk like Tua, or even for Justin Herbert, when they could stay put and draft a fine prospect in Jordan Love without spending the entire farm? Doesn’t make any sense. It is so unlikely that anyone will trade in front of number 5 for any of these QB’s not named Burrow, and I doubt Cincinnati will trade him. It just doesn’t make any sense For any of these teams to spend that much draft capital when there are so many great players for the two QB’s in question to trade into the top 4 basically is what you are saying.
 
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I don't see the Jaguars being a threat to trade up at all this year. I believe they are all in on the Lawrence sweepstakes. They will try to beat out the Panthers for that #1 pick. They will most likely win.
 
Bopkin02 said:
Very interesting thoughts.
OR... with the bust rate of 1st round QB's so high as it is, and none of the QB's after Burrow really seen as "can't miss", what if Grier is thinking, move down a few spots, grab that left tackle, add picks NEXT year, and grab a QB prospect later? If the Dolphins evaluators don't see much difference between, say Herbert, Love, Eason, Morgan, Gordon, why not add an elite talent at 5(or first pick) and grab a prospect later?
I am not saying I advocate it, but QB's come from all over. With the top rated guys this year seeming shaky, a later round QB might be the choice. It would not surprise me.
Click to expand...

Does Davie have the huevos rancheros to look a fan base in the eyes walking away with no future at QB?

Does Ross allow that to happen?

This current FO and HC have not built up enough cache to do so.
 
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