And the favorite to earn the 6th playoff ticket is...

[where's th'fish]

The latest DVOA and Playoff Odds have been released over at Football Outsiders, and the favorites to win the last WC, by a very slight margin, are... big surprise! The Pittsburgh Steelers. ...although it's really a toss up between the Steelers, Dolphins and Ravens, at around 30% each, with the Jets and Chargers way behind at around 3%.

Let me explain why I think this is. DVOA likes the Steelers a little better than the Dolphins, and they play us at home, which should make them around 4 or 5 point favorites (going by DVOA). If Pittsburgh wins, they have the head-to-head tiebreaker, the better team and an easier schedule. DVOA, meanwhile, doesn't like the Ravens much and they also have the toughest schedule of all. If we accept the fact that the Chargers and Jets are basically out, then the key game is this Sunday!

What I didn't realize until now is that the Steelers game is the biggest game remaining on our schedule, since we have head-to-head with everyone else in the race. Divisional records are unlikely to come into it at all (unless the Jets make a very surprising run). If, if, if we win at Pittsburgh, it'll be mano a mano with the Ravens. If we lose, though... we'll need to catch the Ravens and we'll also be behind the Steelers... we'll be toast.

The Chargers... I don't know why their odds are so low, but we do hold the tiebreaker on them.

Edit: after the win, our chances jump to 53% with the Ravens at 37%. No other team is above 5%.

 

[psfign]

hmmm...honestly, i would have thought the Ravens would be with their current situation.

 

[FSU Truth]

If the Dolphins win this week then I see no reason they should make the playoffs....this game (well all games) is key.

 

[MD]

Had we have won that Ravens game we are the 6 seed and have a 2 game lead.

 

[SB Dreamer]

The Ravens loss is the bugger-boo here...They own us as long as they stay even.

 

[Spiff]

No matter how you slice it the Pittsburgh game will make or break our season. We can't afford to lose while at the same time Baltimore wins against Minnesota. I see it as a positive: we lost to Buffalo and Tampa Bay so we would not deserve to be in the playoffs anyway. If we win at Pittsburgh we would redeem ourselves. The bottom line is, we will deserve what we get. Good to know.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

Advanced 'Sabermetrics' statistics simply don't work in football, IMO.

I think Baltimore is the team to beat right now.

 

[where's th'fish]

Advanced 'Sabermetrics' statistics simply don't work in football, IMO.

I think Baltimore is the team to beat right now.

They don't work as they do in baseball, but they certainly work a heck of a lot better than conventional statistics!

 

[Butterfrog 2.0]

We're in a tight spot, we can't afford to lose any and conference record Does matter because if there's more than two teams tied for the last playoff spot then they go by conference record I believe.

 

[mega-fin-love]

I would say 80% chance we get in if we go 3-1

 

[Ruckus45]

Nobody is mentioning the Titans who are right there as well. They pretty much have to win out, as do the Chargers, and both face the Broncos. Good luck with that.

The Steelers have us Sunday, and the Pack coming up with a strong chance of Aaron Rogers. Lets also not forget Cincy and a sneaky Cleveland team. That doesn't look like a schedule that favors playoffs.

Ill take Steelers, Pats, Bills, Jets (at home) over what the other guys have coming up. Hope last Sunday's momentum keeps going.

 

[Daytona Fin]

The biggest factor, imo, is the improved offensive line play. If that trend continues, we will make the playoffs.

 

[Hayden Fox]

That is why this game is so important. Got to get a win against these guys.

 

[maralieus]

Let's not look at the bills as an automatic win. We could very easily lose to them, ne and Pittsburgh. Hell the jets could ruin it for us in Miami! Fact is, all the remaining games will be close cuz that's the dolphin way! I bet we.beat Pitt, and ne then drop one to Buffalo again, cuz that's how we roll.

Sent from my HTC One V using Tapatalk

 

[finfan54]

Let's not look at the bills as an automatic win. We could very easily lose to them, ne and Pittsburgh. Hell the jets could ruin it for us in Miami! Fact is, all the remaining games will be close cuz that's the dolphin way! I bet we.beat Pitt, and ne then drop one to Buffalo again, cuz that's how we roll.

Sent from my HTC One V using Tapatalk

I keep visualizing us beating NE and losing to Buffalo. They just cut Teshard choice today and the reason may be they are very confident in Jackson and Spiller being healthy the rest of the way.