ckparrothead
Premium Member
Supplemental Draft: Wright or Wrong?
The Miami Dolphins would do well to take a guarded approach toward the idea of selecting Manuel Wright in the upcoming NFL Supplemental Draft on July 14th.
Wright has drawn interest from teams such as the Dolphins, Packers, Bengals, Jaguars, and Eagles since declaring for the Supplemental Draft exactly two months ago. The Dolphins have shown the most visible interest to date; having “Manny†visit them in June where they wined and dined the prospect, even giving him a playbook to mull over as he prepared for his July 8th workout for NFL scouts.
Wright:
Wright came out of Poly High School in Long Beach, California a highly-recruited prospect. Heading into his true freshman year, he stood at a mammoth 6’5†and 365 pounds, according to his father, Terence Wright. He lost weight and consistently played in the 290 to 315 pound range.
With the speed he has shown at his significant size, he has always been considered somewhat of a “next great thing†at USC. He has been caught playing behind future-first-rounder Mike Patterson and future-second-rounder Shaun Cody throughout his college career. When he has gotten the chance, he has made an impression. During his sophomore campaign in 2004, Wright only started twice, against BYU and Arizona. But, he made quite an impression rotating in for Shaun Cody as a part-time player. He racked up 23 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 pass breakups, and two fumble recoveries (one returned for a 20 yard TD against Colorado State).
Wright has seemed to come up big in big games. He had a crucial 5 yard sack on Aaron Rodgers against California during the Bears’ failed last-minute scoring attempt, to go along with his 3 tackles. He posted 2.5 tackles for a loss against Oklahoma in the National Championship. His game against Colorado State (6 tackles, 2 for losses, including a sack, fumble recovery returned for a TD) proved that he had found a place among the big boys on the Trojans defense.
Wright has never been a very disciplined scholar. In high school he never ran into academic trouble, but struggled with the SAT, forcing him to spend a year out of football while attending Long Beach Community College. At USC, defensive line coach Ed Orgeron had a reputation for staying on his players to keep up with their class work and grades. When Ed Orgeron left to become head coach of Ole Miss, Manny’s grades began to fall.
He finally became academically ineligible to play football in the spring of 2005. As rumors began swirling in the aftermath of the NFL Draft regarding Wright’s entering the Supplemental Draft, Manny was actually working hard to get his grades up in hopes of becoming eligible to play football again. His family placed pressure on him to complete his education, and Manny registered for summer courses in the hopes of gaining his eligibility back. Neither he, nor his family, succeeded.
At his best, Wright is a fast, penetrating three-technique defensive tackle, meaning he is best played in the gap between the weakside guard and the weakside tackle. It was there that he played as Shaun Cody’s backup, and was able to make plays in crucial situations. In high school, before he gained a significant amount of weight to reach 365 pounds, Wright was timed somewhere in the 4.8 range in the 40 yard dash. As recently as a month ago, his personal trainer has said that he has reached the 2.70/2.74 mark in the first 20 yards of the 40 yard dash, which is considered to be excellent for a man of his stature.
His football work ethic had not been heavily questioned until recently. He began working with a trainer in Colorado shortly after declaring for the Supplemental Draft. Back in early June, his trainer had this to say:
“He (Wright) has not missed a single workout... he's never been late or passed on doing any of the items on his daily routine... (I) see a kid that has been on time with no schedule conflicts or issues... he's really been self-motivated while he's been out here because he's training by himself without the benefit of having other guys here with him.â€Â
Wrong:
Prior to his July 8th workout date, Wright had nearly solidified his status as a 3rd round Supplemental Draft prospect who could sneak his way into the 2nd round much like Tony Hollings did in 2003. A strong workout may have even convinced teams that he was indeed the next Albert Haynesworth or Daryl Gardener, possibly prompting a team to choose him with a first round pick.
His workout did just the opposite. Wright weighed in at 329 pounds and ran an impressive 4.97 in the 40 yard dash, however his agility drills were the subject of much disgust as Wright looked out of shape and winded throughout the workout. His vertical leap of 27.5 inches wasn’t as wildly athletic as his billing, either.
Perhaps the most damning part of his workout came when he attempted to bench press 225 pounds as many times as possible. He was only able to do 16 repetitions, which is regarded as a relatively strong result for wide receivers and cornerbacks, but a horribly poor result for an interior lineman of any sort.
With Nick Saban’s arrival in Miami came a renewed emphasis on physical strength and stature, especially on the defensive side of the ball. While the average height of the entire defensive side of the ball has grown by a full inch or more, Matt Roth was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft because he showed abnormal strength for a man of his stature. Kevin Carter has a reputation for being strong, and Vonnie Holliday was once dubbed the strongest man on the Packers as a rookie. Strength is just about all that nose tackle Keith Traylor has left, and strength explains Saban’s ultimate show of patience with the rehabilitations of both Tim Bowens and Larry Chester.
Physical stature explains why Saban would be interested in Wright in the first place. At 6’6†and 310 pounds Wright would potentially bring a presence back to the interior of the Miami defensive line that has not been present since Daryl Gardener’s dismissal from the team in 2002. But with such a poor showing in such a basic upper body strength measurement, there come questions as to whether or not Manuel Wright even has the prerequisite strength to play on Nick Saban’s defensive line.
The common view is that strength can be earned, but speed is only given. This is a dubious idea at best. Speed can indeed be coached, as evidenced by the rigorous speed training undertaken by 99 percent of all NFL draft candidates in order to improve his all-important 40 yard dash time. And, while speed can be improved without much sacrifice in strength, relying instead upon technique and stride, strength can usually only significantly improve at the sacrifice of a significant amount of speed. Players that are naturally strong should be and are coveted, much like the players that are naturally fast.
The ultimate problem with Manuel Wright’s workout is that he showed that he is either not naturally strong, or that he was unprepared for his workout, which would label him lazy and unmotivated. Either explanation carries with it some degree of negativity.
Another factor that works against Manuel Wright is history. The history of the Supplemental Draft is erratic at best. WRs Cris Carter and Rob Moore are the sole consistent pro bowlers to come out of the draft since its inception. Bernie Kosar, Jamal Williams, and Mike Wahle also came out of the Supplemental Draft, but aside from those five, the Supplemental Draft’s track record is dismal.
There is a reason the Supplemental Draft has been a consistent source of overvaluation. The players in it get the pleasure of being evaluated and scrutinized in a much smaller pool of talent than the regular draft. While drafting underclassmen has always been riskier than drafting seniors (with often bigger rewards and bigger busts), the Supplemental Draft combines the risk of drafting underclassmen with a selection problem, a market problem, and a risk problem.
First, there is a selection problem. The Supplemental Draft, by its nature, is populated with kids that had something go wrong in their college careers. That something is usually academic ineligibility, which immediately throws a kid’s willingness to work into question.
Another issue is a market-related problem. In the regular NFL draft, market demand is broad and will accept many substitutes. The reason is that, though the initial period of free agency has passed, there are often still free agent options out there (especially after June 1st) and teams are loaded with a number of draft picks to fulfill their needs. In early July, team needs have become much more focused, while the market has usually been thoroughly picked-over, leaving some teams in a much more desperate position than prior to the regular draft. Injuries may have already struck certain teams, and other teams may find that new acquisitions are less reliable than they had previously thought.
The Dolphins, for instance, have much more pronounced needs on the interior of the defensive line with Tim Bowens retiring and Larry Chester’s continued ailment. It is no coincidence that the Dolphins are looking at Manuel Wright with such close scrutiny. With such tunnel vision comes the danger of trying to fit a round peg into a square hole.
The risk problem is not as simple. Teams are risk-averse. The overall worth of every team’s basket of draft picks in the next draft has not come even close to being decided by the time the Supplemental Draft rolls around. Teams do not know what talent will be present in the next draft, nor do they know what their selection order will be when they get there. Uncertainty is not rewarded among personnel executives in the NFL. There is also a popular, albeit false, notion floating around the NFL that draft picks have time value as well as certainty value. What you have then is a severe case of yearly deflation in the unit value of draft picks: a future 2nd round pick is deemed to be worth only a present 3rd round pick.
Conclusion: Not the Wright Time
Though many disagree with the application of percentages and number theory to football personnel, a good grounding in the numbers would benefit any personnel executive. The successful poker player has a gift for reading his opponent, as well as a good grounding in the percentages inherent in the cards.
The bottom line is that, though Manuel Wright may be selected in the 3rd round when the Supplemental Draft comes and goes, that value implies that he may have been merely a 4th or 5th round draft pick had he declared and entered the regular draft.
Teams that select Manuel Wright should have a good understanding of what they are getting. He is an underachiever whose strength and motivation have been severely questioned, for good reason.
The ideal suitor for Manuel Wright would be a team that is looking for a three-technique penetrating defensive tackle and currently lacks quality depth for that role. This team should have a quality team with very few holes, and should be expected to have a low selection order in 2006. This team must correctly view the present as more important than the future, due either to aging players or imminent contract swells that make a “rebuilding period†an eventuality.
Sound familiar? The problem with this sort of ideal team, is that very few of them actually exist, and the ones that think they fit the bill usually are the ones that are furthest from the truth of it.
The Dolphins are in need of a one-technique plugger, and are currently in the midst of a rebuilding period. Our selection order in the 2006 draft is not likely to be really low. Two things would have to be true to justify Manuel Wright becoming a Dolphin. One is that he that he had to have had a very explainable bad day at his pro day for good reason (e.g. sickness), and he privately has shown the Dolphins in his visit that he had the prerequisite strength to play on their defensive line. The other thing that must happen, is that Wright’s standing plummets, and the Dolphins are able to select him with a 4th or 5th round draft pick.
The Miami Dolphins would do well to take a guarded approach toward the idea of selecting Manuel Wright in the upcoming NFL Supplemental Draft on July 14th.
Wright has drawn interest from teams such as the Dolphins, Packers, Bengals, Jaguars, and Eagles since declaring for the Supplemental Draft exactly two months ago. The Dolphins have shown the most visible interest to date; having “Manny†visit them in June where they wined and dined the prospect, even giving him a playbook to mull over as he prepared for his July 8th workout for NFL scouts.
Wright:
Wright came out of Poly High School in Long Beach, California a highly-recruited prospect. Heading into his true freshman year, he stood at a mammoth 6’5†and 365 pounds, according to his father, Terence Wright. He lost weight and consistently played in the 290 to 315 pound range.
With the speed he has shown at his significant size, he has always been considered somewhat of a “next great thing†at USC. He has been caught playing behind future-first-rounder Mike Patterson and future-second-rounder Shaun Cody throughout his college career. When he has gotten the chance, he has made an impression. During his sophomore campaign in 2004, Wright only started twice, against BYU and Arizona. But, he made quite an impression rotating in for Shaun Cody as a part-time player. He racked up 23 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 pass breakups, and two fumble recoveries (one returned for a 20 yard TD against Colorado State).
Wright has seemed to come up big in big games. He had a crucial 5 yard sack on Aaron Rodgers against California during the Bears’ failed last-minute scoring attempt, to go along with his 3 tackles. He posted 2.5 tackles for a loss against Oklahoma in the National Championship. His game against Colorado State (6 tackles, 2 for losses, including a sack, fumble recovery returned for a TD) proved that he had found a place among the big boys on the Trojans defense.
Wright has never been a very disciplined scholar. In high school he never ran into academic trouble, but struggled with the SAT, forcing him to spend a year out of football while attending Long Beach Community College. At USC, defensive line coach Ed Orgeron had a reputation for staying on his players to keep up with their class work and grades. When Ed Orgeron left to become head coach of Ole Miss, Manny’s grades began to fall.
He finally became academically ineligible to play football in the spring of 2005. As rumors began swirling in the aftermath of the NFL Draft regarding Wright’s entering the Supplemental Draft, Manny was actually working hard to get his grades up in hopes of becoming eligible to play football again. His family placed pressure on him to complete his education, and Manny registered for summer courses in the hopes of gaining his eligibility back. Neither he, nor his family, succeeded.
At his best, Wright is a fast, penetrating three-technique defensive tackle, meaning he is best played in the gap between the weakside guard and the weakside tackle. It was there that he played as Shaun Cody’s backup, and was able to make plays in crucial situations. In high school, before he gained a significant amount of weight to reach 365 pounds, Wright was timed somewhere in the 4.8 range in the 40 yard dash. As recently as a month ago, his personal trainer has said that he has reached the 2.70/2.74 mark in the first 20 yards of the 40 yard dash, which is considered to be excellent for a man of his stature.
His football work ethic had not been heavily questioned until recently. He began working with a trainer in Colorado shortly after declaring for the Supplemental Draft. Back in early June, his trainer had this to say:
“He (Wright) has not missed a single workout... he's never been late or passed on doing any of the items on his daily routine... (I) see a kid that has been on time with no schedule conflicts or issues... he's really been self-motivated while he's been out here because he's training by himself without the benefit of having other guys here with him.â€Â
Wrong:
Prior to his July 8th workout date, Wright had nearly solidified his status as a 3rd round Supplemental Draft prospect who could sneak his way into the 2nd round much like Tony Hollings did in 2003. A strong workout may have even convinced teams that he was indeed the next Albert Haynesworth or Daryl Gardener, possibly prompting a team to choose him with a first round pick.
His workout did just the opposite. Wright weighed in at 329 pounds and ran an impressive 4.97 in the 40 yard dash, however his agility drills were the subject of much disgust as Wright looked out of shape and winded throughout the workout. His vertical leap of 27.5 inches wasn’t as wildly athletic as his billing, either.
Perhaps the most damning part of his workout came when he attempted to bench press 225 pounds as many times as possible. He was only able to do 16 repetitions, which is regarded as a relatively strong result for wide receivers and cornerbacks, but a horribly poor result for an interior lineman of any sort.
With Nick Saban’s arrival in Miami came a renewed emphasis on physical strength and stature, especially on the defensive side of the ball. While the average height of the entire defensive side of the ball has grown by a full inch or more, Matt Roth was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft because he showed abnormal strength for a man of his stature. Kevin Carter has a reputation for being strong, and Vonnie Holliday was once dubbed the strongest man on the Packers as a rookie. Strength is just about all that nose tackle Keith Traylor has left, and strength explains Saban’s ultimate show of patience with the rehabilitations of both Tim Bowens and Larry Chester.
Physical stature explains why Saban would be interested in Wright in the first place. At 6’6†and 310 pounds Wright would potentially bring a presence back to the interior of the Miami defensive line that has not been present since Daryl Gardener’s dismissal from the team in 2002. But with such a poor showing in such a basic upper body strength measurement, there come questions as to whether or not Manuel Wright even has the prerequisite strength to play on Nick Saban’s defensive line.
The common view is that strength can be earned, but speed is only given. This is a dubious idea at best. Speed can indeed be coached, as evidenced by the rigorous speed training undertaken by 99 percent of all NFL draft candidates in order to improve his all-important 40 yard dash time. And, while speed can be improved without much sacrifice in strength, relying instead upon technique and stride, strength can usually only significantly improve at the sacrifice of a significant amount of speed. Players that are naturally strong should be and are coveted, much like the players that are naturally fast.
The ultimate problem with Manuel Wright’s workout is that he showed that he is either not naturally strong, or that he was unprepared for his workout, which would label him lazy and unmotivated. Either explanation carries with it some degree of negativity.
Another factor that works against Manuel Wright is history. The history of the Supplemental Draft is erratic at best. WRs Cris Carter and Rob Moore are the sole consistent pro bowlers to come out of the draft since its inception. Bernie Kosar, Jamal Williams, and Mike Wahle also came out of the Supplemental Draft, but aside from those five, the Supplemental Draft’s track record is dismal.
There is a reason the Supplemental Draft has been a consistent source of overvaluation. The players in it get the pleasure of being evaluated and scrutinized in a much smaller pool of talent than the regular draft. While drafting underclassmen has always been riskier than drafting seniors (with often bigger rewards and bigger busts), the Supplemental Draft combines the risk of drafting underclassmen with a selection problem, a market problem, and a risk problem.
First, there is a selection problem. The Supplemental Draft, by its nature, is populated with kids that had something go wrong in their college careers. That something is usually academic ineligibility, which immediately throws a kid’s willingness to work into question.
Another issue is a market-related problem. In the regular NFL draft, market demand is broad and will accept many substitutes. The reason is that, though the initial period of free agency has passed, there are often still free agent options out there (especially after June 1st) and teams are loaded with a number of draft picks to fulfill their needs. In early July, team needs have become much more focused, while the market has usually been thoroughly picked-over, leaving some teams in a much more desperate position than prior to the regular draft. Injuries may have already struck certain teams, and other teams may find that new acquisitions are less reliable than they had previously thought.
The Dolphins, for instance, have much more pronounced needs on the interior of the defensive line with Tim Bowens retiring and Larry Chester’s continued ailment. It is no coincidence that the Dolphins are looking at Manuel Wright with such close scrutiny. With such tunnel vision comes the danger of trying to fit a round peg into a square hole.
The risk problem is not as simple. Teams are risk-averse. The overall worth of every team’s basket of draft picks in the next draft has not come even close to being decided by the time the Supplemental Draft rolls around. Teams do not know what talent will be present in the next draft, nor do they know what their selection order will be when they get there. Uncertainty is not rewarded among personnel executives in the NFL. There is also a popular, albeit false, notion floating around the NFL that draft picks have time value as well as certainty value. What you have then is a severe case of yearly deflation in the unit value of draft picks: a future 2nd round pick is deemed to be worth only a present 3rd round pick.
Conclusion: Not the Wright Time
Though many disagree with the application of percentages and number theory to football personnel, a good grounding in the numbers would benefit any personnel executive. The successful poker player has a gift for reading his opponent, as well as a good grounding in the percentages inherent in the cards.
The bottom line is that, though Manuel Wright may be selected in the 3rd round when the Supplemental Draft comes and goes, that value implies that he may have been merely a 4th or 5th round draft pick had he declared and entered the regular draft.
Teams that select Manuel Wright should have a good understanding of what they are getting. He is an underachiever whose strength and motivation have been severely questioned, for good reason.
The ideal suitor for Manuel Wright would be a team that is looking for a three-technique penetrating defensive tackle and currently lacks quality depth for that role. This team should have a quality team with very few holes, and should be expected to have a low selection order in 2006. This team must correctly view the present as more important than the future, due either to aging players or imminent contract swells that make a “rebuilding period†an eventuality.
Sound familiar? The problem with this sort of ideal team, is that very few of them actually exist, and the ones that think they fit the bill usually are the ones that are furthest from the truth of it.
The Dolphins are in need of a one-technique plugger, and are currently in the midst of a rebuilding period. Our selection order in the 2006 draft is not likely to be really low. Two things would have to be true to justify Manuel Wright becoming a Dolphin. One is that he that he had to have had a very explainable bad day at his pro day for good reason (e.g. sickness), and he privately has shown the Dolphins in his visit that he had the prerequisite strength to play on their defensive line. The other thing that must happen, is that Wright’s standing plummets, and the Dolphins are able to select him with a 4th or 5th round draft pick.
