Miami = road team coming off a victory. Not favorable. That's the problem next week. I've emphasized before that road teams coming off a win fare 9% worse against the spread than road teams coming off a loss. That is a surreal stat since it holds up every year and encompasses every road game all season. It's virtually impossible to find anything comparable in any major sport. It demonstates you get a superior effort out of road teams when their last memory is a defeat.
The Dolphin games have followed suit this year. Look at our home games. We faced two teams coming off a victory and both underachieved, the Chargers and Bills. We faced one team coming off a loss and they kicked us around, the Ravens.
The one flop on our season is the road game at Arizona, since we were coming off a loss and dumped. At New England it made sense to fare well, coming off two losses and facing a division rival. Then at Houston we were in a very negative spot and did well to lead most of the game. IMO, that was partially enabled by Houston's shell shocked mode after blowing the huge lead the week before vs. the Colts. If we played them there in a normal week I doubt we ever grab a lead like that.
Anyway, Denver figures to be extremely energetic and defensively able to partially mask its weaknesses, coming off a bye week following an embarrassing defeat. They are at home and slightly better than us in the vital stat of YPPA Differential. I expect a Broncos win.
Todays game was Miami's highlight of the season. We caught San Diego in a great spot, coming off our bye, and New England was in its second game after losing Brady. It's standard for a team to cover up a loss of a superstar in the first game, then fail in game two once everyone is rationalizing they did fine without him in game one. But today we had only a minor scheduling advantage and managed to overturn a 9 point deficit vs. a division rival, scoring the final 18 points. I'm surprised there is less euphoria here tonight after this win than the previous two. I feel better about the Dolphins tonight than any point this season.