PROUDMONKEY
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Well maybe you can not call the below mock a true scientific approach, but I have not seen anything else like it which can answer my question as to what potential first round players may slip to Miami when they pick #32 overall in round two on April 26th.
The below mock draft is not your average mock draft you will find from your favorite NFL writer/analyst on the internet. Its an average mock draft. What I did is take the 20 most popular and current mock drafts from NFL analyst from various sources, and calculated within a database the most popular player selected by pick for the first round for each teams pick.
Of the 20 mock drafts selected, the oldest one was calculated on April 3rd from the gurus at USA Today, and the youngest ones (which make up the majority of the 20 mocks) are dated April 15th and April 16th. The 20 mocks came from the usual places such as Kiper, McShay, and Mosley from ESPN, Kirwan and Carucci from NFL Network, Prisco and Judge from CBS Sportsline,and Don Banks and Peter King from Sports Illustrated. Other sources include USA Today, and other NFL websites dedicated to the NFL Draft only, two of which proved to be the most accurate mock drafters over the last two years. These two sources selected 30 out of 32 correct picks respectively over the last two years.
Here are a couple of examples of how I calculated the below average expert mock draft. Of the Dolphins 20 mocks, there were 9 experts that selected Jake Long, and another 9 selecting Chris Long, 1 for Vernon Gholston, and the final one selecting Glenn Doresy. So the Dolphins pick was a tie, but because Jake Long is negotiating with the Dolphins of late, and as far as I know, Chris Long is currently not, I gave Dolphins Jake Long. As I worked down the list, as players were picked, the player with the second most votes was choosen instead of the player receiving the most votes if that player had already been taken anywhere in a preceeding pick.
An example of this scenerio involve the Patriots #7 pick and Arizona Cardinals #16 pick. Both teams had Leodis McKelvin as the most popular player being selected among the 20 mocks, each team selected him on 8 of the 20 mocks. But because New England picks before Arizona, New England was awarded McKelvin, and Arizona was given Rodgers-Cromartie because he was selected by Arizona the second most often in the 20 mocks. It should be noted that about 25 of the 31 first round picks were pretty straight forward with no ruling on my behalf required. Here is the full round one average mock.
1.Miami Dolphins,Jake Long, OT,Michigan,BIG10
2.St. Louis Rams,Chris Long, DE,Virginia,ACC
3.Atlanta Falcons,Glenn Dorsey, DT,LSU,SEC
4.Oakland Raiders,Darren McFadden, RB,Arkansas,SEC
5.Kansas City Chiefs,Matt Ryan, QB,Boston College,ACC
6.New York Jets,Vernon Gholston, DE,Ohio St.,BIG10
7.New England Patriots (from SF),Leodis McKelvin, CB,Troy,SUN
8.Baltimore Ravens,Ryan Clady, OT,Boise St.,WAC
9.Cincinnati Bengals,Sedrick Ellis, DT,USC,PAC10
10.New Orleans Saints,Keith Rivers, LB,USC,PAC10
11.Buffalo Bills,Mike Jenkins, CB,South Florida,BEAST
12.Denver Broncos,Chris Williams, OT,Vanderbilt,SEC
13.Carolina Panthers,Derrick Harvey, DE,Florida,SEC
14.Chicago Bears,Jeff Otah, OT,Pittsburgh,BEAST
15.Detroit Lions,Rashard Mendenhall, RB,Illinois,BIG10
16.Arizona Cardinals,Domini Rodgers-Cromartie, CB,Tenn St.SUN
17.Minnesota Vikings,Phillip Merling, DE,Clemson,ACC
18.Houston Texans,Jonathan Stewart, RB,Oregon,PAC10
19.Philadelphia Eagles,Kenny Phillips,S,Miami,ACC
20.Tampa Bay Buccaneers,Devin Thomas, WR,Michigan St.,BIG10
21.Washington Redskins,Calais Campbell,DE,Miami,ACC
22.Dallas Cowboys ,Felix Jones, RB,Arkansas,SEC
23.Pittsburgh Steelers,Branden Albert, OT,Virginia,ACC
24.Tennessee Titans,DeSean Jackson, WR,California,PAC10
25.Seattle Seahawks,Dustin Keller, TE,Purdue,BIG10
26.Jacksonville Jaguars,Kentwan Balmer, DT,North Carolina,ACC
27.San Diego Chargers,Brandon Flowers, CB,Virginia Tech,ACC
28.Dallas Cowboys,James Hardy,WR,Indiana,BIG10
29.San Francisco 49ers,Gosder Cherilus, OT,Boston College,ACC
30.Green Bay Packers,Antoine Cason,CB,Arizona,PAC10
31.New York Giants,Jerod Mayo, LB,Tennessee,SEC
Finally I get to the point that caused me to do this exercise in the first place; Identify which players would be available for the Dolphins with the first pick of round two. Who are the potential first round talents that are the most likely slip out of round one and be available for Miami in round two. Bottom line is no one will know till Miami is on the clock, but the following list entails the players who were selected in the 20 mocks with the least frequency. For example, OT Chris Williams from Vanderbilt was selected in 18 of the 20 mocks, whereas DE Calais Campbell from Univ of Miami was selected in only 9 of the 20 mock drafts I reviewed. So I concluded DE Calais Campbell has a much greater chance of falling to Miami in round two than Chris Williams.
OF course I am aware that I am taking a leap of faith that the 20 mocks chosen are good mocks put together by analyst who spent time an research on calculating their mocks and they can do a better job than the average joe schmo(me) who are not paid a salary to put together such mocks.
That said, below is a list of the players that appeared in the 20 expert mock drafts, but only appeared in half or less of the twenty. In other words, they only showed up in the 20 compiled mock drafts 10 times or less. So these players are considered borderline round one picks by many experts that could slip and be available for Miami in round two. I also added about five players that Scouts Inc considers to be a player in the top 40 of the entire draft class that did not appear in any of the 20 mocks.They are sorted by draft grades calculated by scouts inc from best player to worst player. The following data in order is provided...
NAME/POSITION/HEIGHT/WEIGHT/SCHOOL/SCOUT GRADE/POSITION RANK/OVERALLRANK
Brian Brohm, QB,6'2",230,LOUISVILLE, 90, 2, 29
Chad Henne, QB,6'2",230,MICHIGAN, 89, 3, 30
Dustin Keller, TE, 6'2",250,PURDUE, 89, 1, 32
Calais Campbell, DE, 6'8",280,MIAMI, 88, 5, 34
Brandon Flowers, CB, 5'10", 185, VIRGINIA TECH,88, 5, 35
Joe Flacco, QB,6'6",236,DELAWARE, 88, 4, 33
Curtis Lofton, ILB,6'0",246,OKLAHOMA, 87, 2, 37
Mario Manningham, WR,5'11",181,MICHIGAN, 87, 5, 38
Sam Baker, OT,6'4",309,USC, 87, 6, 39
Pat Sims, DT,6'2",310,AUBURN, 87, 4, 40
Fred Davis, TE,6'3",255,USC, 86, 2, 42
Lawrence Jackson, DE,6'4",271,USC, 86, 6, 44
Early Doucet, WR,6'0",209,LSU, 85, 7, 45
Tracy Porter, CB,5'10",188,INDIANA, 85, 7, 46
Trevor Laws, DT,6'0",304,NOTRE DAME, 85, 5, 47
Marcus Harrison, DT,6'2",317,ARKANSAS, 84, 6, 50
Quentin Groves, DE,6'3",259,AUBURN, 84, 8,51
Chilo Rachal, OG,6'5",315,USC, 84, 2, 52
Andre Caldwell, WR,6'0",204,FLORIDA, 83, 9, 53
In conclusion, it appears based on what could be available in round two that the Dolphins should have planety to talent to choose from to land a solid QB or defensive lineman if they decide to draft OT Jake Long with the first overall pick. If they draft DE Chris Long in round one, the Offensive Tackle depth appears a little thinner than defensive line depth so maybe drafting an OT in round one and electing to do DE or DT at the top of round two mkaes the most sense. Also QB prospects appears to be very strong at the top of round two as well.
One last note...below are the College football conference subtotals for the average mock draft.
If this pans out, it would be like the third or fourth year in a row the ACC has had the most picks in round one.
Conference
ACC-9
BIG10-6
SEC-6
PAC10-5
SUN-2
BEAST-2
WAC-1
TOTAL-31
The below mock draft is not your average mock draft you will find from your favorite NFL writer/analyst on the internet. Its an average mock draft. What I did is take the 20 most popular and current mock drafts from NFL analyst from various sources, and calculated within a database the most popular player selected by pick for the first round for each teams pick.
Of the 20 mock drafts selected, the oldest one was calculated on April 3rd from the gurus at USA Today, and the youngest ones (which make up the majority of the 20 mocks) are dated April 15th and April 16th. The 20 mocks came from the usual places such as Kiper, McShay, and Mosley from ESPN, Kirwan and Carucci from NFL Network, Prisco and Judge from CBS Sportsline,and Don Banks and Peter King from Sports Illustrated. Other sources include USA Today, and other NFL websites dedicated to the NFL Draft only, two of which proved to be the most accurate mock drafters over the last two years. These two sources selected 30 out of 32 correct picks respectively over the last two years.
Here are a couple of examples of how I calculated the below average expert mock draft. Of the Dolphins 20 mocks, there were 9 experts that selected Jake Long, and another 9 selecting Chris Long, 1 for Vernon Gholston, and the final one selecting Glenn Doresy. So the Dolphins pick was a tie, but because Jake Long is negotiating with the Dolphins of late, and as far as I know, Chris Long is currently not, I gave Dolphins Jake Long. As I worked down the list, as players were picked, the player with the second most votes was choosen instead of the player receiving the most votes if that player had already been taken anywhere in a preceeding pick.
An example of this scenerio involve the Patriots #7 pick and Arizona Cardinals #16 pick. Both teams had Leodis McKelvin as the most popular player being selected among the 20 mocks, each team selected him on 8 of the 20 mocks. But because New England picks before Arizona, New England was awarded McKelvin, and Arizona was given Rodgers-Cromartie because he was selected by Arizona the second most often in the 20 mocks. It should be noted that about 25 of the 31 first round picks were pretty straight forward with no ruling on my behalf required. Here is the full round one average mock.
1.Miami Dolphins,Jake Long, OT,Michigan,BIG10
2.St. Louis Rams,Chris Long, DE,Virginia,ACC
3.Atlanta Falcons,Glenn Dorsey, DT,LSU,SEC
4.Oakland Raiders,Darren McFadden, RB,Arkansas,SEC
5.Kansas City Chiefs,Matt Ryan, QB,Boston College,ACC
6.New York Jets,Vernon Gholston, DE,Ohio St.,BIG10
7.New England Patriots (from SF),Leodis McKelvin, CB,Troy,SUN
8.Baltimore Ravens,Ryan Clady, OT,Boise St.,WAC
9.Cincinnati Bengals,Sedrick Ellis, DT,USC,PAC10
10.New Orleans Saints,Keith Rivers, LB,USC,PAC10
11.Buffalo Bills,Mike Jenkins, CB,South Florida,BEAST
12.Denver Broncos,Chris Williams, OT,Vanderbilt,SEC
13.Carolina Panthers,Derrick Harvey, DE,Florida,SEC
14.Chicago Bears,Jeff Otah, OT,Pittsburgh,BEAST
15.Detroit Lions,Rashard Mendenhall, RB,Illinois,BIG10
16.Arizona Cardinals,Domini Rodgers-Cromartie, CB,Tenn St.SUN
17.Minnesota Vikings,Phillip Merling, DE,Clemson,ACC
18.Houston Texans,Jonathan Stewart, RB,Oregon,PAC10
19.Philadelphia Eagles,Kenny Phillips,S,Miami,ACC
20.Tampa Bay Buccaneers,Devin Thomas, WR,Michigan St.,BIG10
21.Washington Redskins,Calais Campbell,DE,Miami,ACC
22.Dallas Cowboys ,Felix Jones, RB,Arkansas,SEC
23.Pittsburgh Steelers,Branden Albert, OT,Virginia,ACC
24.Tennessee Titans,DeSean Jackson, WR,California,PAC10
25.Seattle Seahawks,Dustin Keller, TE,Purdue,BIG10
26.Jacksonville Jaguars,Kentwan Balmer, DT,North Carolina,ACC
27.San Diego Chargers,Brandon Flowers, CB,Virginia Tech,ACC
28.Dallas Cowboys,James Hardy,WR,Indiana,BIG10
29.San Francisco 49ers,Gosder Cherilus, OT,Boston College,ACC
30.Green Bay Packers,Antoine Cason,CB,Arizona,PAC10
31.New York Giants,Jerod Mayo, LB,Tennessee,SEC
Finally I get to the point that caused me to do this exercise in the first place; Identify which players would be available for the Dolphins with the first pick of round two. Who are the potential first round talents that are the most likely slip out of round one and be available for Miami in round two. Bottom line is no one will know till Miami is on the clock, but the following list entails the players who were selected in the 20 mocks with the least frequency. For example, OT Chris Williams from Vanderbilt was selected in 18 of the 20 mocks, whereas DE Calais Campbell from Univ of Miami was selected in only 9 of the 20 mock drafts I reviewed. So I concluded DE Calais Campbell has a much greater chance of falling to Miami in round two than Chris Williams.
OF course I am aware that I am taking a leap of faith that the 20 mocks chosen are good mocks put together by analyst who spent time an research on calculating their mocks and they can do a better job than the average joe schmo(me) who are not paid a salary to put together such mocks.
That said, below is a list of the players that appeared in the 20 expert mock drafts, but only appeared in half or less of the twenty. In other words, they only showed up in the 20 compiled mock drafts 10 times or less. So these players are considered borderline round one picks by many experts that could slip and be available for Miami in round two. I also added about five players that Scouts Inc considers to be a player in the top 40 of the entire draft class that did not appear in any of the 20 mocks.They are sorted by draft grades calculated by scouts inc from best player to worst player. The following data in order is provided...
NAME/POSITION/HEIGHT/WEIGHT/SCHOOL/SCOUT GRADE/POSITION RANK/OVERALLRANK
Brian Brohm, QB,6'2",230,LOUISVILLE, 90, 2, 29
Chad Henne, QB,6'2",230,MICHIGAN, 89, 3, 30
Dustin Keller, TE, 6'2",250,PURDUE, 89, 1, 32
Calais Campbell, DE, 6'8",280,MIAMI, 88, 5, 34
Brandon Flowers, CB, 5'10", 185, VIRGINIA TECH,88, 5, 35
Joe Flacco, QB,6'6",236,DELAWARE, 88, 4, 33
Curtis Lofton, ILB,6'0",246,OKLAHOMA, 87, 2, 37
Mario Manningham, WR,5'11",181,MICHIGAN, 87, 5, 38
Sam Baker, OT,6'4",309,USC, 87, 6, 39
Pat Sims, DT,6'2",310,AUBURN, 87, 4, 40
Fred Davis, TE,6'3",255,USC, 86, 2, 42
Lawrence Jackson, DE,6'4",271,USC, 86, 6, 44
Early Doucet, WR,6'0",209,LSU, 85, 7, 45
Tracy Porter, CB,5'10",188,INDIANA, 85, 7, 46
Trevor Laws, DT,6'0",304,NOTRE DAME, 85, 5, 47
Marcus Harrison, DT,6'2",317,ARKANSAS, 84, 6, 50
Quentin Groves, DE,6'3",259,AUBURN, 84, 8,51
Chilo Rachal, OG,6'5",315,USC, 84, 2, 52
Andre Caldwell, WR,6'0",204,FLORIDA, 83, 9, 53
In conclusion, it appears based on what could be available in round two that the Dolphins should have planety to talent to choose from to land a solid QB or defensive lineman if they decide to draft OT Jake Long with the first overall pick. If they draft DE Chris Long in round one, the Offensive Tackle depth appears a little thinner than defensive line depth so maybe drafting an OT in round one and electing to do DE or DT at the top of round two mkaes the most sense. Also QB prospects appears to be very strong at the top of round two as well.
One last note...below are the College football conference subtotals for the average mock draft.
If this pans out, it would be like the third or fourth year in a row the ACC has had the most picks in round one.
Conference
ACC-9
BIG10-6
SEC-6
PAC10-5
SUN-2
BEAST-2
WAC-1
TOTAL-31
