Bad Luck or Just Bad Decision Making? | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Bad Luck or Just Bad Decision Making?

Grier does seem to take more risks on injury prone players than other teams. Even high draft picks like Tua, Phillips and Waddle. It's probably unfair to call Waddle injury prone, but he was coming off an injury and was the 6th overall pick.

Tua and Phillips missing time has really hurt this organization. Both are really good players when healthy.

Worse, I think character is less of an issue for Miami. Both Hill and Ramsey have been rumored to be late showing up for practices. These are supposed to be team leaders and apparently both want out of Miami. Minkah Fitzpatrick was seemingly immature and was shipped off to Pittsburgh. Holland complained about Fangio being too tough, and then phoned it in last year IMO.

To be fair, the risk reward factor for cheap, injury prone players can pay off in free agency, or with late draft picks who dropped because of injury.

Time to find team leaders, players who can't stand losing, hold others accountable etc.
 
I love this thread, and at its core, its leads back to this:
Inadequate drafting. Sure, everyone hits, and everyone misses.
But this team, due to big trades, bizarre choices (Igbo?) and just poor eval, hasn't drafted well enough, thus forcing them into the position of having to pay out big money on other people's free agents, or trade for their malcontents, or take risks on oft-injured players.
They also have an owner who isn't a "football guy"... and is also in his 80s, leading to desperation and lack of direction.
Honestly? Hire an experienced, knowledgeable football guy to be Team President (like a Bill Belicheck or Jimmy Johnson type-**NOT THOSE TWO, but someone who has had success, who doesn't have to be at the facility 20 hours a day) - a guy who knows football, decides what kind of culture the team will have, establishes it, brings in his GM to draft players to fit that culture, and hire a coach who embodies that culture. One through-thread from top to bottom. Then the GM and coach have an overseer to keep them accountable. If the whole thing tanks badly? Then it's the owner's job to oversee the president. (I know, I know, but it's a better plan than Ross has had so far...If he's going to be an absentee owner, he needs to find some one to be in locus parenti)
Then draft better. Grier's FA philosophy the past two years wasn't bad, and that could be continued. But that's literally the only thing.
It's amazing what a dumpster fire this team has become, with little to no hope of change for at least a season or two. If not longer.
 
The Bopkin said:
I love this thread, and at its core, its leads back to this:
Inadequate drafting. Sure, everyone hits, and everyone misses.
But this team, due to big trades, bizarre choices (Igbo?) and just poor eval, hasn't drafted well enough, thus forcing them into the position of having to pay out big money on other people's free agents, or trade for their malcontents, or take risks on oft-injured players.
They also have an owner who isn't a "football guy"... and is also in his 80s, leading to desperation and lack of direction.
Honestly? Hire an experienced, knowledgeable football guy to be Team President (like a Bill Belicheck or Jimmy Johnson type-**NOT THOSE TWO, but someone who has had success, who doesn't have to be at the facility 20 hours a day) - a guy who knows football, decides what kind of culture the team will have, establishes it, brings in his GM to draft players to fit that culture, and hire a coach who embodies that culture. One through-thread from top to bottom. Then the GM and coach have an overseer to keep them accountable. If the whole thing tanks badly? Then it's the owner's job to oversee the president. (I know, I know, but it's a better plan than Ross has had so far...If he's going to be an absentee owner, he needs to find some one to be in locus parenti)
Then draft better. Grier's FA philosophy the past two years wasn't bad, and that could be continued. But that's literally the only thing.
It's amazing what a dumpster fire this team has become, with little to no hope of change for at least a season or two. If not longer.
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Good post. No stability in the coaching ranks, and constantly changing the "blueprint" is a major issue.

I'm not really sure what Miami's blueprint actually is? But one constant for about 20 years is the Dolphins needing more help on the offensive line.
 
The latter. All the way. In every way.

I don’t even need to read anything more than this thread title.

Done.
 
It has to do with talent evaluation. He cant assess good value in middle of the road prospects in free agency or the draft. Dude has no talent for picking diamonds in the rough. It is what differentiates good gm's from bad gm's.
 
BennySwella said:
It has to do with talent evaluation. He cant assess good value in middle of the road prospects in free agency or the draft. Dude has no talent for picking diamonds in the rough. It is what differentiates good gm's from bad gm's.
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Yup, all comes down to the art of evaluating talent and who’s better at it.
 
You're gonna miss on FA when that is what comprises most of your roster as a result of inexcusable drafting. He can't do the most important part of his job ... all it comes down to.

I look at the roster every season and am flabbergasted by the lack of drafted talent on this team. I would say it's impossible to draft so badly for so many years and still be employed by the same -- or any -- NFL team if the fins weren't currently doing it. The worst part is he doesn't own it and the scapegoating somehow works -- after **** results for years -- on his billionaire boss. Makes your brain hurt.
 
When you draft the wrong QB and then extend that same QB, there's no decisions to cover that. QB is THAT important to success.
 
The Goat said:
I've learned a few life lessons (usually the hard way) that I've tried to (or am trying to) ingrain into my kids' heads. A few of the more important ones:

  • Good things rarely happen if you're out partying after midnight.
  • Showing up on time and working your ass off is half the battle.
  • If you continually put yourself in risky situations, it's not bad luck when bad things happen. It's bad decision-making.
The last of those is the one that the Dolphins Front Office seems to be incapable of learning. I started thinking about this because of the "Weird" thread that quoted Sagulero's piece. I realized quickly that Miami continually makes decisions that involve a risk/reward conversation. More often than not, it doesn't work out. In short, they specialize in risky signings/acquisitions. It's even deeper than signing injury-prone players like Armstead or coming off injuries (Daniels). They need to stop trying to “fix” players. Consider the following:

- In 2016 they signed Mario Williams after he was a PITA in Buffalo, hoping for a return to form. Nope. He was done. Cut after one year and minimal production.

- In 2017, it was Jay Cutler, whom they dragged out of retirement with $10mm to QB the team. That went about as everyone expected, except, apparently, Miami’s FO.

- 2018? They actually didn’t do anything that risky, except sign Brock Osweiler…which went about as everyone expected.

- 2019 saw Miami acquire Josh Rosen for the price of a second-round pick. This was a scratch-off lotto in the hopes that they could “fix” Rosen. I understand the thinking and hoped for the best, but the risk/reward thing once again didn’t work out. Arizona used that pick to draft Andy Isabella, so they didn’t use that capital wisely.

However, three of the next four picks in that draft were DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson and Juan Thornhill.

- 2020? Welcome, Kyle Van Noy! He played one year for Miami, was apparently injured for much of it, didn’t do much impactful, and bashed the team once he left.

- 2021 brought Miami Will Fuller. Will Fuller honestly wasn’t a risky signing. It was just ******* weirdly unlucky. (yes, this one I attribute to bad luck.) After three ascending seasons in Houston, Fuller produced 26 yards in Miami in 2021…and then never played another snap in the NFL.

- 2022? Welcome to Miami, Tyreek Hill! Hill has absolutely performed phenomenally on the field, but he’s a PITA off it. Has the juice been worth the squeeze? It’s resulted in the same amount of playoff wins, that’s for sure.

And don’t think we forgot about you, Bradley Chubb!

- 2023? Well hello there, Mr. Ramsey! Sure, you left Jacksonville and the Rams on not-so-friendly terms, but the Dolphins can fix this. Right?

- 2024? Look, a two for one! Kendall Fuller AND OBJ! To be fair, it was kinda hard to see the Fuller thing coming, and OBJ didn’t cost that much, but still. Oh, and Miami probably gets a net positive result from signing aging vets that year because of Calais Campbell.

But overall, they keep doing the same thing. It's bad planning, because hope isn't a plan.

It needs to end.
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Good post. I agree on it and I bet I can think of another one, or two bad signings with a little thought. Bad decision making is spot on. I like to give people the benefit of the doubt, but Miami's leadership is not working. In business when something is not working, you fix it. I bet Ross "fixes" issues in his real estate empire, or he would not be successful at it. Many on here have suggested as long as he is making money off the Miami Dolphins "business" he could care less about wins. I do not believe that. Any successful businessman has a winning mentality. Let's hope he "fixes" what many knowledgeable posters on here allude to this season.

(ps) What you tell your kids is 100% true.
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
Grier does seem to take more risks on injury prone players than other teams. Even high draft picks like Tua, Phillips and Waddle. It's probably unfair to call Waddle injury prone, but he was coming off an injury and was the 6th overall pick.

Tua and Phillips missing time has really hurt this organization. Both are really good players when healthy.

Worse, I think character is less of an issue for Miami. Both Hill and Ramsey have been rumored to be late showing up for practices. These are supposed to be team leaders and apparently both want out of Miami. Minkah Fitzpatrick was seemingly immature and was shipped off to Pittsburgh. Holland complained about Fangio being too tough, and then phoned it in last year IMO.

To be fair, the risk reward factor for cheap, injury prone players can pay off in free agency, or with late draft picks who dropped because of injury.

Time to find team leaders, players who can't stand losing, hold others accountable etc.
Click to expand...
Your last sentence should be spray-painted in 10' high block letters on the front of the team headquarters in Davie! I have the paint, let's do it!

(An article in the WPB Post today says that Grier got a fan letter recently commending him on working hard, trying to get the team better, etc. Grier said the letter was in a box and there was a package inside. He opens it and there is a T-Shirt inside with this printed on it "Don't Fu*k this up!" Grier said that shirt is hanging on his office wall. Let's see if he abides by it.)
 
25 years of bad luck is pretty hard to pass off as chance. Someone’s sleeping at the wheel
 
Big part of it is organizational cultur and identity, usually set by the owner and HC.

Knoll, Landry, et al.

Have a strong organizational and team culture and identity and the rest tends to fall into place.
 
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