utahphinsfan
Club Member
I'd prefer Ingram to Coples but as the phins are remaining a hybrid Upshaw makes the most sense.
There is a short list. Sarcasm off?
Barry Jackson Sports Buzz: QB news
- Thread starter jim1
- Start date
I'd prefer Ingram to Coples but as the phins are remaining a hybrid Upshaw makes the most sense.
There is a short list. Sarcasm off?
true, but at least it's not the same financial commitment anymore
ckparrothead
Premium Member
I'm going to be honest, I don't know what the timing was. I'm neutral on the timing. If I were to roll out with some inside info on a message board, and then a couple of draftniks (I don't think it was quite the massive throng it's made out to be sometimes) put Pouncey in their mocks, I would never say that it was because of me, unless I had direct contact with those draftniks. I just wouldn't do it. I would consider it arrogant and ignorant of me to do that.
But at the same time, the Pouncey-Mock issue is often used as an example of how enduro is fake, as in he said Pouncey is the pick after some mocks put Pouncey as the pick...and I don't buy that. I've been doing this long enough to know how difficult it is to correctly predict a draft pick long before it happens. The mock drafters are almost always wrong, until like midnight of the night before the draft, when actual inside information comes flooding into the marketplace. You'll never see me pooing on enduro's kudos for getting that pick right, as some do.
The reason I believe him is because I've followed what he says long enough, and I have a good enough memory, to come up with a pretty objective analysis of how often he's been right. I also have a correct perspective on how what a GM is thinking at one point in time could change, and may ultimately not be feasible. So where some people consider DeAngelo Williams and Carson Palmer to be WRONG predictions, I actually view them as right ones. He said the Dolphins were interested in DeAngelo. They were. They got involved in those negotiations, and in the end he re-signed with his own team for a RIDICULOUS amount (5 years, $43 million). He said the Dolphins were interested in Carson Palmer. They were. That article came out way later showing just how much they held a candle for Carson. It was clear. It was detailed. It had multiple quotes from multiple coaches and team sources. Some people want to poo all over that prediction too, as if it were EASY to guess that Palmer was going to be the guy. Not so. There were something like 10 different options at the QB position that off season, each as likely as the next. To guess the ONE whose basket the Dolphins were ultimately destined to put their eggs in? That's something. Just like it's something that he revealed like 5 months ahead of time that Ireland was enamored with Pat Devlin.
People act like just because there are other people that catch wind of these things and hint at them, or just because the moves had some logic behind them, that makes it LESS likely duro actually has a source. That defies logic. It's as if enduro's source of information needs to be the ONE and ONLY leak in the Dolphins building, in order to be valid. It's as if it doesn't account unless he predicted a move that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. These demands for proof are not realistic.
I'm an econ guy, a finance guy, have a stats background...so I have a good feel for when something has statistical, non-random significance. I don't consider it a LOCK that enduro definitely has a source by any means. But I do think the signs point to it.
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hoops
Tua time!
i don't think its that hard 3 years into a regime to get a feel for who they may be interested in free agency wise at least...seems like some obvious stuff to me...heck i was on here tellin anyone that i would bet money miami would make a strong play to get kyle orton last offseason by trade and sure enough we did...i didn't get that from a source...i got that from knowing or feeling like i know the way these guys operate now...that i know what kind of moves they are likely to try and make...same for deangelo williams...just seemed like the common sense play to me given what our needs were and what was available and the only thing that kept us from being a stronger candidate for deangelo was the panthers backing up a brinks truck to retain him...
the carson palmer stuff yeah i think thats sayin something...goin out on a limb like that and sayin miami was very interested...but i don't think thats a revelation by any means either...
i mean right now can anyone on here say they don't feel like even before all this media hype thats out there right now miami will likely make strong plays at manning first and foremost given ross and flynn if manning doesn't pan out??? seems to me again like an obvious play...
as for the pouncey thing i recall everyones pick in the media changing to pouncey as the pick a good month in advance of the draft...and it never changing...however for enduro to incline that the national media changed its pick based on his word is frankly absurd...pull that garbage on someone else...
finally i obviously do pay attention to what enduro says but i don't hold my breath on it happening by any means...its just more fuel for my possibilities fire...if his sources are in fact legit...great...more power to you...
i'm still waiting for enduro to lay on me who the in play free safety upgrade this offseason is...
the carson palmer stuff yeah i think thats sayin something...goin out on a limb like that and sayin miami was very interested...but i don't think thats a revelation by any means either...
i mean right now can anyone on here say they don't feel like even before all this media hype thats out there right now miami will likely make strong plays at manning first and foremost given ross and flynn if manning doesn't pan out??? seems to me again like an obvious play...
as for the pouncey thing i recall everyones pick in the media changing to pouncey as the pick a good month in advance of the draft...and it never changing...however for enduro to incline that the national media changed its pick based on his word is frankly absurd...pull that garbage on someone else...
finally i obviously do pay attention to what enduro says but i don't hold my breath on it happening by any means...its just more fuel for my possibilities fire...if his sources are in fact legit...great...more power to you...
i'm still waiting for enduro to lay on me who the in play free safety upgrade this offseason is...
MexDolfan
Seasoned Veteran
You're making poor effort calculating the odds for each guy to be our starter in September.
1. Peyton Manning (20-1) - In order to be our starting QB, Peyton must have regenerated the nerves on his throwing arm to pass some tests and prove he's ready to play. Then he must choose Miami over other options like Indianapolis, Arizona, NY Jets, Seattle and Washington. Next step he must beat Matt Moore, who won't represent a big problem if Manning is close to 75% of his original skills, but could beat him if not above 50%. Finally there's no timetable for Manning's rehab but most realistic recovery period is a 9-18 months gap from now, so let's say it's unlikely to see him starting in September.
2. Matt Flynn (5-1) - It's a known fact that Miami's first target is Manning, but if he isn't available, Dolphins will opt to plan B: Matt Flynn, who will hear several offers once free agency starts. Assuming Manning goes somewhere else and Flynn rejoins with his former OC, then Flynn's final task is beating Moore. The chances than Manning joins the Dolphins are about 10-1, so there's a huge possibility that Flynn becomes Miami's target, but chances of beating other teams' offers are 3-1, representing the biggest obstacle about hiring Flynn. This is a realistic scenario but could be erased if money marks the difference. Miami will have something close to 8 millions to offer in 2012, but some team might be willing to throw a ton of warranted money for him, including a huge part for this season.
3. Ryan Tannehill (20-1) - The knowledge about potential QB within our coaching staff is amazing. Everybody knows that if Matt Flynn has the tools to be a franchise QB, nobody else in the entire world knows better than HC Joe Philbin. Well, we can say the same on Ryan Tannehill and his former coach in Texas A&M, our OC Mike Sherman. So there's a good chance Miami will pick Tannehill if he lasts until our 2nd round pick. But as a rookie, his chances of beating Manning/Flynn and Moore are pretty slim. Of course that if Dolphins can't land Manning nor Flynn, a shinning training camp and quick adoption of WCO basics could turn things on his favor. It's a long shoot because the draft might move in different directions.
4. Robert Griffin III (25-1) - RG3 could represent a desperate act, if Dolphins find themselves incapable of landing a franchise QB. Let's say that moving up until 2nd spot is less than unlikely, but what if RG3 slides until the 6th spot (could happen if Cleveland signs Flynn, while Washington gets Manning) and Redskins accept a reasonable trade. This scenario depends on too many things, but it isn't totally impossible.
5. Matt Moore (3-1) - Matt is on the fold so there's a clear chance he could be starting in September. But the fact is there's going to be a new offense, great challengers and incumbent passer won't be favored. I mean once a big name enters on the roster the coaches will focus on setting up things around him. So only if Miami gets Flynn or RG3 his chances to start in September will be minimal. Peyton opens a window for Moore because Manning could need time to be ready.
6. Other (3-1) - A year ago nobody knew who was going to challenge Chad Henne. Today we know such guy is called Matt Moore, and even incapable of beating Henne, he became starter after a season ending injury.
So aside of Manning, Flynn and some rookie, Dolphins could opt for cheaper free agents like Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell, Brady Quinn or Josh Johnson. Also with potential changes on other teams, there's a chance to trade for quality backups like Ryan Mallet (Patriots), Colin Kaepernick (49ers) or Colt McCoy (Browns, assuming they sign Flynn). Thus Matt Moore might find strong resistance to keep his starting role as QB for the Miami Dolphins on 2012.
Those odds reflex the uncertainty involving the Dolphins.
If you have astronomical odds on Brandon Weeden, whom you fail to even mention, let me know and I might take you up on a bet.