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Before we get too excited

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blevins29

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I am really excited about the Dolphins and the path we are on. I also like the performance of Chad Henne thus far.
But before I drown in orange koolaid, I want to take a step back and look at our season, our team, and our (franchise?) QB through the eyes of an unbeliever. Facts can be cruel!
FACT 1 - We have not beaten a team who is currently even or better record-wise. The teams we lost to are 5-5, 10-0, 7-3, 10-0, 7-3 for a 39-11 combined record. While the teams we've beat are 4-6 (Jets twice), 3-7, 1-9, and 4-6 for a 12-28 combined record (or 16-34 if you count Jets twice).
FACT 2 - While Henne is being hailed by some as the next Marino his stats tell a different story. Of the 33 passers with 14 or more attempts per game he doesn't rank in the top 20 except in fewest INT's. Even when his stats are on a per game or per attempt basis he is average at best: 23rd in both completion % and QB rating - 28th in yards per game and TD's per attempt. But he has led the team to 5 wins against teams that are winning only 30% of their games.
Fact 3 - Our offense ranks only 23rd in yards per game and 26th in yards per play. We do rank 11th in points per game. But that is skewed some due to scores from special teams and the defense plus the success of our place kicker.
Fact 4 - Our defense is 19th in yards per game, 23rd in yards per play, and 27th in points per game. Against the pass we are 22nd in yards per game and 27th in points per game despite the fact we are pretty good at controlling time of possession.

So while we have much hope for the rest of the season and a playoff game, the facts in the form of stats don't seem to point that way. The hope we have that Henne will someday be another Marino isn't currently supported by his less than stellar stats while playing 5 games against teams with losing records and only 2 (both losses) against teams above 500. We can blame his woeful receivers for some of that, especially his 58.3% completion rate. But Pennington had those same receivers dropping passes for him in his 3 losses (all against teams that are 500 or better) and his completion percentage was still 68.9% (which would be 3rd if he had enough attempts to qualify).
 
So you think we shouldn't be so excited about a 2nd year QB playing excellent football in his first handful of starts! Ok, I guess when you compare his stats to guys that have been in the league forever, Manning, Brady, Manning, Philips, Warner, Farve, Brees etc.... then you can make a case that it's not to exciting. But for the rest of us we understand all those QB's had to start somewhere and most of them didn't play aswell as Henne is. Most of them have excellent players around them while Henne has a very weak supporting cast i.e Receivers. So he is limited in what kind of stats you seek, I personally like that winning stat he has beside his name.

Apparently because Henne doesn't make the schedule and didn't play against Atlanta, Indy and got thrown in cold against SD somehow works against him??????

I really don't understand this thread to be honest with you, you expect essentially a rookie to be great statistics wise atleast before we are allowed to be excited about him. You seem to think all of the better QB's came in the league and from day 1 we're putting up excellent numbers! Rarely ever does someone do what D.Marino did!!!

I will toot the Henne train horn all day, he's fun to watch, makes plays and we're winning because of him not despite him.
 
Selective facts can be cruel. The only fact that matters is that we are 5-5, second in the division, and in the thick of the playoff hunt despite being a young and burgeoning franchise; just like the only fact that matters for the Saints is that they are 10-0, despite an combined opponent record of 37-63.

The only fact that matters for Henne is that he is 5-2. Then there's the parts that staters always overlook: the intangibles, the things that cannot be measured, like the FACT that Henne improves as a professional quarterback every single game. He's holding onto the ball less, more willing to throw it away, staring down WR's less, etc. The only numbers those count as to staters is incompletions.

Stat-play is a neat trick, but it's too easy to selectively use them to support whichever view you have, whether that be the overly optimistic fan (see the stat website thread) or the overly pessimistic fan (though I don't understand the point of that one, will these fans still find ways to be scrooged even when the Phins win the SB? Probably).
 
3rdandinches - Only 1 of the 4 FACTS and part of the summary even mentioned Henne. Yet you take offense to the whole post (which was meant to point out our chances for a playoff game are remote) due to stats presented negative to Henne. You state "he's fun to watch, makes plays and we're winning because of him not despite him." and I agree. The only part I would qualify is the last phrase. He is not losing us games which allows his passing, Ginn's KO returns, Ricky's runs, and Carpenter's FGs to win games. Henne is not winning games on his own. He is doing what Pennington did last year (and I think highly of both of them because of this) - He is giving his team a chance to win the game.
Now that being said: His position in the stats puts him behind most other 1st and 2nd year starters (not just Manning and Brady). Chad has done a good job for us but he has not been "playing excellent football" for us. Solid but not excellent.
 
Until they are mathematically eliminated, I am of the opinion (and hope) that the Fins will make the playoffs. That's just how I am.
 
blevins29 said:
Of the 33 passers with 14 or more attempts per game he doesn't rank in the top 20 except in fewest INT's.
Click to expand...

Key!!

Statistically, the Jets have the 2nd best defense in the NFL. Where has that gotten them?
 
blevins29 said:
Chad has done a good job for us but he has not been "playing excellent football" for us. Solid but not excellent.
Click to expand...

The fact that Chad has played as good as Pennington and been a solid QB despite throwing to guys that would be backups and practice squad guys on any respectable team is impressive. I wouldn't expect him to put up monster stats on a run first team without any reliable #1 WR/TE to speak of. If he did, we'd be inducting him into Canton already. Once we surround him with a capable supporting cast, the stats will come. Until then, I'll just be satisfied with his 5-2 record as a starting QB.
 
Lets put his stats in perspective. For example Brett Farve and Tom Brady both played in 15 games in their 2nd year in the NFL, neither played any mentionable time their first season. Guess what years both had their lowest TD total in their career? Their 2nd year/1st year as starter when both threw 18. Both were just over 80 with their passing rating. My point is not many QBs throw 48 TDs in their 2nd season, but rather just show glimpses of being able handle the job, and show the ability to improve every week.

Henne is 5-2 as a starter. He has lead 2 4th quarter comeback victories already. At the end of 2nd Jets game and the Panthers game Henne led the Dolphins on TD drives that helped secure a victory.

Is Henne going be just like Tom Brady? Odds are against him, but he definitly has the most potential of any QB who has started a game for the Miami Dolphins in the past 10 years.
 
Regarding Pennington's %age vs. Henne's... keep in mind that the receivers were used to Pennington's more gentle delivery. Henne has thrown some real accurate laserbeams that wound up dropped. That's all I can really say, because otherwise the original post is spot on.
 
The Fins are a work in progress - we all know that as do the coaches and management. We should be 7-3 with wins over Indy and NO but this is what you get with young teams that still have some holes.

We are on the right path - fixing the mess from 2000-2007 is not done overnight.
 
blevins29 said:
3rdandinches - Only 1 of the 4 FACTS and part of the summary even mentioned Henne. Yet you take offense to the whole post (which was meant to point out our chances for a playoff game are remote) due to stats presented negative to Henne. You state "he's fun to watch, makes plays and we're winning because of him not despite him." and I agree. The only part I would qualify is the last phrase. He is not losing us games which allows his passing, Ginn's KO returns, Ricky's runs, and Carpenter's FGs to win games. Henne is not winning games on his own. He is doing what Pennington did last year (and I think highly of both of them because of this) - He is giving his team a chance to win the game.
Now that being said: His position in the stats puts him behind most other 1st and 2nd year starters (not just Manning and Brady). Chad has done a good job for us but he has not been "playing excellent football" for us. Solid but not excellent.
Click to expand...


He is playing excellent football for a 2nd year QB, I'm not saying he's playing Manning like but excellent for his experience. So some of his stats are below some other young QB's, he takes less chances and throws the ball away. Therefore his yardage and TD's will be less and his completion percentage is less because he's more willing to throw it away. This results in his interception rate lower and directly effects our ability to win games. You could have bigger stats like Flacco, Ryan and Sanchise but they continue to throw picks costing their teams opportunities to win.

Of course there's more to winning then Henne but if his play wasn't where it's at right now we would have less wins and more losses. No other position dictates wins and losses as much as the QB position does.

You seem to think that excellent football means 5000yards 40 TD's etc...... but I look at a QB having seven starts, no real wr's that if not for some bad defensive play and real bad drops could be 6-1 or 7-0. I know stuff happens but non of that has anything to do with Henne's play, his play has been better then anyone could have expected.

The critizism of Henne has been pathetic, uneducated and unrealistic. People thinking he should have the pocket presence of a 10 year vet, or accurracy of D.Marino.... the kid has put maybe 1 or 2 balls where the defender can make a play on it otherwise every throw has been where only the Receiver can get it or no one can.

He's made very few mistakes and more importantly he hasn't repeated the same mistake. All things that make me believe for a qb in his 2nd year having seven starts is playing excellent football.

I don't care about stats because last time I checked stats don't decide the playoffs or superbowl winners,wins do and Henne shows an ability to win football games and that's what I really care about.
 
blevins29 said:
FACT 1 - We have not beaten a team who is currently even or better record-wise. The teams we lost to are 5-5, 10-0, 7-3, 10-0, 7-3 for a 39-11 combined record. While the teams we've beat are 4-6 (Jets twice), 3-7, 1-9, and 4-6 for a 12-28 combined record (or 16-34 if you count Jets twice).
Click to expand...


FACT: all but three teams in the NFL have an sov under .500. Denver is 32-28, Oakland is 16-14 and Tampa Bay is 6-4. we're 16-34. that puts us on a level with Jacksonville, Baltimore, Philadelphia or the Giants. it's just the way this league works. the good teams beat up on one another but usually beat the bad teams.
 
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