blitzhappy
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Outside of Long's off the field issues he tested out great, he would have been the fastest lineman at the combine if not for the two freaks.
Cool.
As far as calculating values, there should be mathematical adjustment for 1st round picks taken in the 4th and so on, 'cause that's a greater value than 3rd round pick selected in the 7th, even tho the spread maybe the same. Opposite goes for reaches. ( I did not see Frederick's name? odd.)
According to your list you think that Menelik Watson should have been a late 7th round pick? Wow. I thought that he was easily one of the best OL I saw play in the entire draft. I can't even imagine a guy who played that well and with such upside lasting until the 7th round. He's a bit older, that's the one negative I see and imo he might turn out to be the best RT in the draft, maybe even a LT.
Cool.
As far as calculating values, there should be mathematical adjustment for 1st round picks taken in the 4th and so on, 'cause that's a greater value than 3rd round pick selected in the 7th, even tho the spread maybe the same. Opposite goes for reaches. ( I did not see Frederick's name? odd.)
I wouldn't necessarily say he should've been a 7th round pick, but that's where I had him graded in terms of my interest. In other words, that's where I would've taken him to play right tackle. I don't buy the hype with him. Furthermore, I don't grade offensive lineman high that lack experience. The majority of Watson's pre-draft hype was built upon what was supposed to be outstanding athletic ability before he went to the combine and tested at the bottom of virtually every category. I don't subscribe to the upside, and as I mentioned a long time ago, I didn't like his age.
The real talent to me is found in Cameron Erving and Josue Matias when I study FSU's offensive line.
Biggest reach imo was Travis Frederick
I don't think it's going to be as big a reach as people think it is.......But I think Barrett Jones was a ****ing steal.
Despite the Cowboys reaching for Frederick, he wasn't one of the top 26 biggest reaches in my opinion. If I had kept going, Frederick's name would've been included along the way. Fact is, there were that many reaches that were bigger.
He was #99 on my big board and Dallas took him at #31 overall, or a score of -68.... which wouldn't make my top 26 reaches.
I grade these value picks and reaches linear because it provides an absolute reference for everyone to look at without me having to split hairs and go into lengthy explanations.
I'd also disagree that a 1st rounder taken in the 4th round is greater value than a 3rd rounder taken in the 7th if the spread is equal. I only had 25 players with 1st round grades to begin with. The talent pool was much more watered down in the 7th round where a kid who I felt had 3rd round talent (Chris Gragg for example) was taken. The talent pool was much closer together in the 4th round.
Let me step in here as we are dealing with mathematics which is my specialty.
We're talking about standard deviations and such when talking about this. For instance, a guy taken in round 3 who you had projected in round 6, would not be nearly as big of a reach as taking a guy in round 1 who you had projected to go in round 3. In other words, its not just about the number value of how far away a player was taken. There is much more of a difference in talent from round 1 to round 3 than from round 4 to round 6. So you have to be careful about using these numbers to say who was the biggest reach according to your own feelings on the player.
In other words, the difference in your 130th ranked player and your 170th ranked player is much less than the difference in your 10th ranked player and your 50th ranked player. The numerical difference is simply 40 in both cases, however I would say the 50th ranked player going 10th would be a much bigger reach than the 170th ranked player going 130th.
Based on your rankings and not my own, Id say Lemonier was a huge value, perhaps the best value considering where you had him ranked and where he was taken. I too was higher on Lemonier than most, but again that isnt a factor in what his value was....... were using your rankings.
The biggest reach using your rankings was likely still Frederick. I dont know where you had him slotted, you say 2nd round, but unless you had him early to mid 2nd, thats a huge reach at that point. Or no wait...... did Watson go really early? I noticed you had him ranked way down there. Watson is probably still the biggest reach using your rankings, but you see my point about weight of the numbers I hope.
If we went by my rankings, the biggest reach was clearly Geno's Myth, who I had ranked as undraftable.
Ted,
I'm surprised you didn't have S Duron Harmon as one of the big reaches. Common belief was that he was a 7th rounder or even UFDA. I came to him late on and posted in the Draft Forum that I couldn't believe this kid wasn't higher on boards or asked to the Combine. I couldn't see the issue with the kid that would have him close to undrafted.
I think I said in the post that he looked at least a fourth rounder to me, but I didn't believe for a minute that any NFL team would take him there - let alone in the third.
I have to say I like him. I think it's awful value in Round 3 though, as nobody would have looked sideways at this kid until at least round 5, more likely 6 or 7. But, when it all shakes out, he could be one of the best safety prospects going into the NFL this year.